Paul Goodwin

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Judgmental forecasts of time series affected by special events: does providing a statistical forecast improve accuracy?

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, R. Fildes, 1999 .

Integrating management judgment and statistical methods to improve short-term forecasts

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2002 .

The Holt-Winters Approach to Exponential Smoothing: 50 Years Old and Going Strong

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2010 .

Aviation Risk Perception: A Comparison Between Experts and Novices

Paul Goodwin, Mary E. Thomson, Mary E Thomson, 2004, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

Understanding the use of forecasting software: an interpretive study in a supply-chain company

Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, 2006 .

What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk

Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal-Atay, Herman O. Stekler, 2018, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

When providing best-case and worst-case scenarios can be detrimental to judgmental demand forecasts and production decisions

Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal, M. Sinan Gönül, 2018 .

The Ombudsman: Forecasting Conflict Resolution. Is It Worth Asking an Expert?

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2007, Interfaces.

Guiding Principles for the Forecasting Support System

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, R. Fildes, 2012 .

When providing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios can be detrimental to judgmental demand forecasts and production decisions

Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal-Atay, M. Sinan Gönül, 2019, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

A decision-analysis-based framework for analysing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning

George Wright, George Cairns, Paul Goodwin, 2016, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

Do ‘big losses’ in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts’ behaviour?

Fotios Petropoulos, Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, 2016 .

Common sense and hard decision analysis: why might they conflict?

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2009 .

Between Success and Failure: A Forecasting System in Use

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, Charlotte Brown, 2011 .

Influence Diagrams, Belief Nets and Decision Analysis

Paul Goodwin, 1991 .

When do changes in consumer preferences make forecasts from choice-based conjoint models unreliable?

Paul Goodwin, Sheik Meeran, Joao Quariguasi Frota Neto, 2017, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

Projecting Success: Don't Forget the Base Rate

Paul Goodwin, 2011 .

Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential

George Cairns, Paul Goodwin, Frances A. O'Brien, 2019, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

The Exploration Testbeds - Industry Investments Supporting Project Constellation Risk Reduction

Paul Goodwin, Tho Nguyen, Dave Ernst, 2009 .

The process of using a forecasting support system

Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, 2007 .

Forecasting in supply chain companies: Should you trust your judgment?

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, 2011, OR Insight.

Influence of user participation on DSS use and decision accuracy

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, Michael Lawrence, 2002 .

Teaching scenario planning: Lessons from practice in academe and business

George Wright, George Cairns, Paul Goodwin, 2009, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

Restrictiveness and guidance in support systems

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, Michael Lawrence, 2011 .

Against Your Better Judgment? How Organizations Can Improve Their Use of Management Judgment in Forecasting

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, R. Fildes, 2007, Interfaces.

Sales Forecasting Using Combination of Diffusion Model and Forecast Market - an Adaption of Prediction/preference Markets

Paul Goodwin, Karima Dyussekeneva, Sheik Meeran, 2013, MIM.

Exploration Development Lab: Industry Investments Supporting Constellation Risk Reduction

Paul Goodwin, Tho Nguyen, Melody Tichenor, 2008 .

The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness

Robert Fildes, Michael Lawrence, Paul Goodwin, 2006, Decis. Support Syst..

Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty

Yee Mey Goh, Paul Goodwin, Linda Newnes, 2012 .

Providing support for decisions based on time series information under conditions of asymmetric loss

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2005, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

Should we be using significance tests in forecasting research

Paul Goodwin, 2007 .

Assessing Point Forecast Bias Across Multiple Time Series: Measures and Visual Tools

Paul Goodwin, Andrey Davydenko, 2021, International Journal of Statistics and Probability.

Understanding the use of forecasting systems : an interpretive study in a supply-chain

Paul Goodwin, Fotios Pasiouras, Wing Yee, 2007 .

Good and bad judgment in forecasting: lessons from four companies

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, 2007 .

Profit from Your Forecasting Software: A Best Practice Guide for Sales Forecasters

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2018 .

Book Review of Thinking Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman

Paul Goodwin, 2012 .

Adjusting Judgemental Extrapolations using Theil's Method and Discounted Weighted Regression

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 1997 .

Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: Users’ reactions to presumed vs. experienced credibility

Paul Goodwin, Mary E. Thomson, Dilek Önkal, 2017 .

WHY DO COMPANIES NOT PRODUCE BETTER FORECASTS OVERTIME? AN ORGANISATIONAL LEARNING APPROACH

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, 2006 .

Getting Real about Uncertainty

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2014 .

New Evidence on the Value of Combining Forecasts

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2009 .

Why Should I Trust Your Forecasts

Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal, M. Sinan Gönül, 2012 .

Using Naïve Forecasts to Assess Limits to Forecast Accuracy and the Quality of Fit of Forecasts to Time Series Data

Paul Goodwin, 2014 .

Effective forecasting for supply-chain planning: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, Michael Lawrence, 2006 .

Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigation

Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal, P. Goodwin, 2009 .

Statistical correction of judgmental point forecasts and decisions

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 1996 .

Why Hindsight Can Damage Foresight

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2010 .

Eliminating a framing bias by using simple instructions to 'think harder' and respondents with managerial experience: comment on breaking the frame.

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, George Wright, 2002 .

Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice

Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal, M. Sinan Gönül, 2013 .

Improving the Role of Judgment in Economic Forecasting

Paul Goodwin, Michael Lawrence, Dilek Önkal, 2011 .

Simple versus complex forecasting : The evidence

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, Wilpen Gorr, 2015 .

Performance measurement in the M4 Competition: Possible future research

Paul Goodwin, Paul Goodwin, 2020 .

How to integrate management judgment with statistical forecasts

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2005 .

Book Review of Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment: How to Create a Supply Chain Advantage (Dirk Seifert, 2003)

Paul Goodwin, 2005 .

On the accuracy of judgmental interventions on forecasting support systems

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, Michael Lawrence, 2005 .

High on Complexity, Low on Evidence: Are Advanced Forecasting Methods Always as Good as They Seem?

Paul Goodwin, 2011 .

Forecasting support systems: What we know, what we need to know

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, R. Fildes, 2013 .

Remarks on the application of the analytic hierarchy process to judgmental forecasting

Valerie Belton, Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 1996 .

Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios

Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal, Celile Itir Gögüs, 2019, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making.