D. Koehler

发表

Probability matching in risky choice: The interplay of feedback and strategy availability

Derek J. Koehler, B. Newell, T. Rakow, 2012, Memory & Cognition.

Explanation, imagination, and confidence in judgment.

Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 1991, Psychological bulletin.

The enhancement effect in probability judgment

Derek J. Koehler, A. Tversky, D. Koehler, 1997 .

Self-predictions overweight strength of current intentions

C. S. Poon, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2006 .

Modeling patterns of probability calibration with random support theory: Diagnosing case-based judgment ☆

Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, D. Griffin, 2005 .

Implicit Quantification of Personality Traits

Amos Tversky, David Gidron, Derek J. Koehler, 1993 .

Hypothesis generation and confidence in judgment

Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 1994 .

Illusory correlations in graphological inference.

D. Koehler, R. N. King, Roy N. King, 2000, Journal of experimental psychology. Applied.

Probability matching in choice under uncertainty: Intuition versus deliberation

D. Koehler, G. James, Greta James, 2009, Cognition.

What makes us think? A three-stage dual-process model of analytic engagement

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Gordon Pennycook, Derek J. Koehler, 2015, Cognitive Psychology.

People focus on optimistic scenarios and disregard pessimistic scenarios while predicting task completion times.

Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, R. Buehler, 2000, Journal of experimental psychology. Applied.

Probability judgement in medicine: discounting unspecified possibilities.

D A Redelmeier, Derek J. Koehler, A. Tversky, 1995, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

A Brief Forewarning Intervention Overcomes Negative Effects of Salient Changes in COVID-19 Guidance

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, A. C. Walker, Derek J. Koehler, 2021, Judgment and Decision Making.

Graphical Depiction of Statistical Information Improves Gambling-Related Judgments

A. C. Walker, D. Koehler, M. Dixon, 2019, Journal of Gambling Studies.

Unclaimed Prize Information Biases Perceptions of Winning in Scratch Card Gambling

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, A. C. Walker, Derek J. Koehler, 2018, Journal of Gambling Studies.

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes Judgments of Decision Effectiveness: Actor–observer Differences in Overconfidence Straints. Recently, the Processes Underlying Judgmental and the Possibility That the Costs of Moving Further

Peter Ayton, Nigel Harvey, Derek J. Koehler, 2022 .

The role of analytic thinking in moral judgements and values

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Nathaniel Barr, Gordon Pennycook, 2014 .

Characterizing belief bias in syllogistic reasoning: A hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis of ROC data

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2018, Psychonomic Bulletin & Review.

Illusion of confirmation from exposure to another's hypothesis

Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, T. Beauregard, 2006 .

Everyday Consequences of Analytic Thinking

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2015 .

Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability.

A. Tversky, D. Koehler, 1994 .

An evidential support accumulation model of subjective probability

Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, Chris M. White, 2003, Cognitive Psychology.

Dilution and confirmation of probability judgments based on nondiagnostic evidence

D. Koehler, Carla Labella, 2004, Memory & cognition.

Banking on a Bad Bet

Greta James, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2011, Psychological science.

On the psychology of self-prediction: Consideration of situational barriers to intended actions

C. S. Poon, D. Koehler, R. Buehler, 2014 .

Assessing Evidential Support in Uncertain Environments

D. Koehler, Chris M. White, 熊田俊二, 2005 .

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes a Strength Model of Probability Judgments for Tournaments Plished by Estimating Two Strength Values for Each

Derek J. Koehler, Koehler, D. Koehler, 2022 .

How the public, and scientists, perceive advancement of knowledge from conflicting study results

D. Koehler, Gordon Pennycook, 2019, Judgment and Decision Making.

Atheists and Agnostics Are More Reflective than Religious Believers: Four Empirical Studies and a Meta-Analysis

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2016, PloS one.

Probability Judgment in Medicine

A. Tversky, D. Koehler, D. Redelmeier, 1995 .

Itâ€™s still bullshit: Reply to Dalton (2016)

D. Koehler, Gordon Pennycook, J. Fugelsang, 2016 .

Probability matching does not decrease under cognitive load: A preregistered failure to replicate

Derek J. Koehler, B. Newell, D. Koehler, 2019, Memory & Cognition.

Heuristics and Biases: The Calibration of Expert Judgment: Heuristics and Biases Beyond the Laboratory

Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, D. Griffin, 2002 .

Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making

Nigel Harvey, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2004 .

Analytic cognitive style predicts religious and paranormal belief

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Paul Seli, Gordon Pennycook, 2012, Cognition.

Distributed metacognition: Increased bias and deficits in metacognitive sensitivity when retrieving information from the internet.

Evan F. Risko, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2021, Technology, Mind, and Behavior.

Heuristics and Biases: Remarks on Support Theory: Recent Advances and Future Directions

Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, L. Brenner, 2002 .

Subjective Probability of Disjunctive Hypotheses: Local-Weight Models for Decomposition of Evidential Support

Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, L. Brenner, 1999, Cognitive Psychology.

Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability.

Derek J. Koehler, A. Tversky, D. Koehler, 1994 .

Person Theories: Their Temporal Stability and Relation to Intertrait Inferences

C. S. Poon, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2008, Personality & social psychology bulletin.

Characterizing belief bias in syllogistic reasoning: A hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis of ROC data

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, D. Koehler, Gordon Pennycook, 2018, Psychonomic bulletin & review.

Evaluating Effort: Influences of Evaluation Mode on Judgments of Task‐specific Efforts

Evan F. Risko, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2017 .

Is the cognitive reflection test a measure of both reflection and intuition?

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2016, Behavior research methods.

Probability judgment in three-category classification learning.

D. Koehler, Derek J. Koehler, 2000, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

Lay personality knowledge and dispositionist thinking: A knowledge-activation framework

C. S. Poon, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2006 .

On the psychology of self-prediction: Consideration of situational barriers to intended actions

C. S. Poon, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2014, Judgment and Decision Making.

Is the cognitive reflection test a measure of both reflection and intuition?

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2015, Behavior Research Methods.

On the reception and detection of pseudo-profound bullshit

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2015, Judgment and Decision Making.

Cognitive reflection but not reinforcement sensitivity is consistently associated with delay discounting of gains and losses.

Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, Y. Majima, 2019, Journal of Neuroscience, Psychology, and Economics.

Good Intentions, Optimistic Self-Predictions, and Missed Opportunities

Leslie K. John, Rebecca J. White, Derek J. Koehler, 2011 .

Choice strategies in multiple-cue probability learning.

Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, Chris M. White, 2007, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

On the evaluation of one‐sided evidence

Lyle Brenner, Amos Tversky, Derek J. Koehler, 1996 .

Dunning–Kruger effects in reasoning: Theoretical implications of the failure to recognize incompetence

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2017, Psychonomic Bulletin & Review.

Commentary: Rethinking fast and slow based on a critique of reaction-time reverse inference

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Valerie A. Thompson, Gordon Pennycook, 2016, Front. Psychol..

Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination

Lyle Brenner, Amos Tversky, Derek J. Koehler, 1996 .

Cognitive style and religiosity: The role of conflict detection

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2014, Memory & cognition.

Can journalistic "false balance" distort public perception of consensus in expert opinion?

Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2016, Journal of experimental psychology. Applied.

Dunning–Kruger effects in reasoning: Theoretical implications of the failure to recognize incompetence

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Robert M Ross, Gordon Pennycook, 2017, Psychonomic bulletin & review.

Finding meaning in the clouds: Illusory pattern perception predicts receptivity to pseudo-profound bullshit

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, A. C. Walker, Derek J. Koehler, 2019, Judgment and Decision Making.

Calibration accuracy of a judgmental process that predicts the commercial success of new product ideas

Thomas B. Astebro, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2007 .

Are we good at detecting conflict during reasoning?

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2012, Cognition.

Individual differences in exploring versus exploiting and links to delay discounting

Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, E. Meyers, 2020, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making.

Confidence and accuracy in trait inference: judgment by similarity.

A. Tversky, D. Koehler, L. Brenner, 1996, Acta psychologica.

Push Outcomes Bias Perceptions of Scratch Card Games

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, A. C. Walker, Derek J. Koehler, 2021, Journal of Gambling Studies.

Unclaimed prize information increases the appeal of scratch card games

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, A. C. Walker, Derek J. Koehler, 2020 .

Using Icon Arrays to Communicate Gambling Information Reduces the Appeal of Scratch Card Games

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, A. C. Walker, Derek J. Koehler, 2020, Journal of Gambling Studies.

Exploring relationships between problem gambling, scratch card gambling, and individual differences in thinking style

Mike J. Dixon, Jonathan A. Fugelsang, A. C. Walker, 2018, Journal of behavioral addictions.

Bracketing effects on risk tolerance: Generalizability and underlying mechanisms

Derek J. Koehler, Ester Moher, D. Koehler, 2010, Judgment and Decision Making.

Belief bias during reasoning among religious believers and skeptics

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2013, Psychonomic bulletin & review.

Reducing the number of non-naïve participants in Mechanical Turk samples

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, A. C. Walker, Derek J. Koehler, 2020 .

A simulated financial savings task for studying consumption and retirement decision making

Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, J. Langstaff, 2015 .

A Case-Based Model of Probability and Pricing Judgments: Biases in Buying and Selling Uncertainty

Derek J. Koehler, Lyle A. Brenner, Dale W. Griffin, 2012, Manag. Sci..

Chapter Three - Probability Matching, Fast and Slow

Greta James, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2014 .

Intuition speed as a predictor of choice and confidence in point spread predictions

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, A. C. Walker, Derek J. Koehler, 2019, Judgment and Decision Making.

Frequency formats are a small part of the base rate story

Derek J. Koehler, Dale Griffin, Lyle Brenner, 2007 .

Missing information in multiple-cue probability learning

D. Koehler, Chris M. White, 2004, Memory & cognition.

(www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/bdm.559 Calibration Accuracy of a Judgmental Process that Predicts the Commercial Success of New Product Ideas

D. Koehler, T. Åstebro, 2007 .

Working Paper DRAFT : February 2002 Self-Prediction Based on Strength of Intention

C. S. Poon, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2002 .

Heuristics and Biases: Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Subjective Probability

Derek J. Koehler, A. Tversky, D. Koehler, 2002 .

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: a Critical Examination Deliberate versus Random Selection of Items

Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, L. Brenner, 2022 .

Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination

A. Tversky, D. Koehler, L. Brenner, 1996 .

Wronging past rights: The sunk cost bias distorts moral judgment

Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Derek J. Koehler, D. Koehler, 2019, Judgment and Decision Making.