H. Arkes

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The sunk cost and Concorde effects: Are humans less rational than lower animals?

H. Arkes, P. Ayton, 1999 .

The Psychology of Sunk Cost

H. Arkes, C. Blumer, 1985 .

Psychological theories of motivation

H. Arkes, J. Garske, 1982 .

The power of touch: An examination of the effect of duration of physical contact on the valuation of objects

James R. Wolf, H. Arkes, W. Muhanna, 2008, Judgment and Decision Making.

Factors influencing the use of a decision rule in a probabilistic task

H. Arkes, R. Dawes, Caryn Christensen, 1986 .

Why Do Patients Derogate Physicians Who Use a Computer-Based Diagnostic Support System?

Victoria A. Shaffer, Edgar C. Merkle, C. Adam Probst, 2013, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

Eliminating the hindsight bias.

David Faust, Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, 1988 .

The generality of the relation between familiarity and judged validity.

Catherine Hackett, Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, 1989 .

How bad is incoherence

Gerd Gigerenzer, Ralph Hertwig, Hal R. Arkes, 2016 .

Costs and benefits of judgment errors: Implications for debiasing.

H. Arkes, 1991 .

Two methods of reducing overconfidence

H. Arkes, C. Blumer, Caryn Christensen, 1987 .

A consensus-based transparency checklist

Ty W. Boyer, Christopher D. Chambers, Andrew A. Bennett, 2019, Nature Human Behaviour.

Overconfidence in Judgmental Forecasting

Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, 2001 .

TARGET ARTICLE: Attributions of Implicit Prejudice, or "Would Jesse Jackson 'Fail' the Implicit Association Test?"

Philip E. Tetlock, Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, 2004 .

Forecasting tournaments, epistemic humility and attitude depolarization

H. Arkes, B. Mellers, P. Tetlock, 2019, Cognition.

Is Overbidding in Online Auctions the Result of a Pseudo-Endowment Effect?

James R. Wolf, H. Arkes, W. Muhanna, 2005 .

The role of probability of success estimates in the sunk cost effect

Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, Laura Hutzel, 2000 .

Hindsight Bias: An Impediment to Accurate Probability Estimation in Clinicopathologic Conferences

Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, N. Dawson, 1988, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

Assessing the Merits and Faults of Holistic and Disaggregated Judgments

H. Arkes, C. González-Vallejo, A. Bonham, 2009 .

Comparing Holistic and Disaggregated Ratings in the Evaluation of Scientific Presentations

Victoria A. Shaffer, H. Arkes, R. Dawes, 2006 .

Nonconsequentialist decisions. Commentaries. Author's reply

Jonathan Baron, Peter Ayton, Ilana Ritov, 1994 .

The Influence of Decision Aids on High School Students’ Satisfaction with their College Choice Decision

Steven K. Jones, H. Arkes, Carla M. Kmett, 1999 .

AUTHORS' RESPONSE: The Implicit Prejudice Exchange: Islands of Consensus in a Sea of Controversy

H. Arkes, P. Tetlock, 2004 .

Patients Derogate Physicians Who Use a Computer-Assisted Diagnostic Aid

Victoria A. Shaffer, Victoria A Shaffer, Mitchell A Medow, 2007, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

A levels of processing interpretation of dual-system theories of judgment and decision making

H. Arkes, 2016 .

The Role of Potential Loss in the Influence of Affect on Risk-Taking Behavior

L. T. Herren, Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, 1988 .

The Nonuse of Psychological Research at Two Federal Agencies

H. Arkes, 2003, Psychological science.

Psa Screening: Some Background and Clinical Evidence Psychological Research and the Prostate- Cancer Screening Controversy

W. Gaissmaier, H. Arkes, 2022 .

Systematic errors in medical decision making: judgment limitations.

N V Dawson, H. Arkes, N. Dawson, 1987, Journal of general internal medicine.

The effects of mental contamination on the hindsight bias: Source confusion determines success in disregarding knowledge

H. Arkes, Melissa A. Z. Marks, 2010 .

Inconclusives and error rates in forensic science: a signal detection theory approach

H. Arkes, J. Koehler, 2022, Law, Probability and Risk.

Reasoning of an Anomaly : Residual Block After

H. Arkes, S. Brull, M. Naguib, 2013 .

The Temperature of Diff Con Theory

H. Arkes, 1996 .

Ratings of physicians relying on experts versus physicians relying on decision aids

Adam C. Probst, H. Arkes, V. Shaffer, 2008 .

Impediments to accurate clinical judgment and possible ways to minimize their impact.

H. Arkes, H R Arkes, 1981, Journal of consulting and clinical psychology.

Discrimination Directed Toward Conservative Women

George W. Dent, H. Arkes, 2018 .

The Impact of Serious Illness on Patients' Families

Roger B. Davis, E. Cook, L. Goldman, 1994 .

Competence and the maintenance of behavior

Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, 1978 .

Competence and the overjustification effect

H. Arkes, 1979 .

Estimates of contingency between two dichotomous variables.

Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, A. R. Harkness, 1983 .

The recalcitrance of overconfidence and its contribution to decision aid neglect

Winston R. Sieck, Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, 2005 .

Rethinking Fundamental Assumptions: SUPPORT'S Implications for Future Reform

H. Arkes, N. Dawson, R. Phillips, 2000, Journal of the American Geriatrics Society.

Regret, Valuation, and Inaction Inertia

Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, Laura Hutzel, 2002 .

""Attributions of Implicit Prejudice, or" Would Jesse Jackson 'Fail'the Implicit Association Test?", 15 Psychol

H. Arkes, P. Tetlock, 2004 .

Anesthesiologists' Overconfidence in Their Perceived Knowledge of Neuromuscular Monitoring and Its Relevance to All Aspects of Medical Practice: An International Survey.

H. Arkes, S. Brull, A. Kopman, 2019, Anesthesia and analgesia.

Consensus Statement on Perioperative Use of Neuromuscular Monitoring

H. Arkes, M. Todd, A. Elstein, 2017, Anesthesia and analgesia.

Reasoning of an anomaly: residual block after sugammadex.

H. Arkes, S. Brull, M. Naguib, 2013, Anesthesia and analgesia.

Anesthesiologists' Overconfidence in Their Perceived Knowledge of Neuromuscular Monitoring and Its Relevance to All Aspects of Medical Practice: An International Survey.

H. Arkes, S. Brull, A. Kopman, 2019, Anesthesia and analgesia.

Heuristics, Overconfidence, and Experience With Management of Neuromuscular Block: Self-Correction Is Unlikely.

H. Arkes, S. Brull, A. Kopman, 2019, Anesthesia and analgesia.

Are Residents’ Decisions Influenced More by a Decision Aid or a Specialist’s Opinion? A Randomized Controlled Trial

Victoria A. Shaffer, Hal R. Arkes, Mitchell A. Medow, 2010, Journal of General Internal Medicine.

Systematic errors in medical decision making:

Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, N. Dawson, 1987, Journal of General Internal Medicine.

A demonstration of the costs and benefits of expertise in recognition memory

H. Arkes, H. Arkes, M. Freedman, 1984, Memory & cognition.

Implicit Bias Among Physicians

Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, N. Dawson, 2008, Journal of General Internal Medicine.

The Influence of Treatment Effect Size on Willingness to Adopt a Therapy

H. Arkes, P. Khoury, S. Aberegg, 2009, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

The effect of concurrent task complexity and music experience on preference for simple and complex music.

H. Arkes, Lorraine E. Rettig, J. D. Scougale, 1986 .

Processing Time and Complexity Preference in Preschool Children

H. Arkes, A. Boykin, 1974 .

Intentionality on Prose Retention

H. Arkes, G. Schumacher, M. Gary, 2011 .

Effects of Orienting Tasks on the Retention of Prose Material.

Gary M. Schumacher, Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, 1976 .

Patient and Surrogate Disagreement in End-of-Life Decisions: Can Surrogates Accurately Predict Patients' Preferences?

H. Arkes, Melissa A. Z. Marks, 2008, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

Hemodynamic Assessment in Managing the Critically III

H. Arkes, T. Speroff, N. Dawson, 1993 .

Hemodynamic assessment in managing the critically ill: is physician confidence warranted?

N V Dawson, H. Arkes, T. Speroff, 1993, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

A national survey of psychologists who offer neuropsychological services.

H. Arkes, D. Faust, T. Guilmette, 1990, Archives of clinical neuropsychology : the official journal of the National Academy of Neuropsychologists.

Principles in judgment/decision making research pertinent to legal proceedings

H. Arkes, 1989 .

Failure to Adopt Beneficial Therapies Caused by Bias in Medical Evidence Evaluation

H. Arkes, S. Aberegg, P. Terry, 2006, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

A consensus-based transparency checklist

Ty W. Boyer, Christopher D. Chambers, Andrew A. Bennett, 2019, Nature Human Behaviour.

Laboratory Test of a Non-Point Water Pollution Control Program: Monetary and Psychological Incentives

H. Arkes, H. Pushkarskaya, 2006 .

Memory, retrieval, and contingency judgments.

Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, M. Rothbart, 1985 .

Determinants of judged validity.

H. Arkes, L. Boehm, Gang Xu, 1991 .

The Psychology of Windfall Gains

Mark V. Pezzo, Jane Gradwohl Nash, Eric R. Stone, 1994 .

Prospect Theory and Reference Point Adaptation: Evidence from the US, China, and Korea

D. Hirshleifer, H. Arkes, S. Lim, 2007 .

A Cross-Cultural Study of Reference Point Adaptation: Evidence from China, Korea, and the US

D. Hirshleifer, H. Arkes, S. Lim, 2007 .

Do Auction Bidders 'Really' Want to Win the Item, or Do They Simply Want to Win?

James R. Wolf, H. Arkes, W. Muhanna, 2006 .

Preference reversals in evaluations of cash versus non-cash incentives

Victoria A. Shaffer, Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, 2009 .

The Aggregative Contingent Estimation System: Selecting, Rewarding, and Training Experts in a Wisdom of Crowds Approach to Forecasting

Winston R. Sieck, Mark Steyvers, Youngwon Shin, 2012, AAAI Spring Symposium: Wisdom of the Crowd.

Three reservations about consequentialism

H. Arkes, 1994 .

Information Exchange in Group Decision Making: The Hidden Profile Problem Reconsidered

John H. Kagel, John P. Lightle, Hal R. Arkes, 2009, Manag. Sci..

A mediational explanation of the priority effect

H. Arkes, D. Lyons, 1979 .

My Loss Is Your Loss … Sometimes: Loss Aversion and the Effect of Motivational Biases

H. Arkes, J. Arvai, R. Wilson, 2008, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

The Covariance Decomposition of the Probability Score and Its Use in Evaluating Prognostic Estimates

F E Harrell, N V Dawson, H. Arkes, 1995, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

Effects of a Management–Labor Context and Team Play on Ultimatum Game Outcomes

J. Kagel, H. Arkes, Dimitry Mezhvinsky, 2017 .

The Consequences of the Hindsight Bias in Medical Decision Making

H. Arkes, 2013 .

Neuropsychologists' capacity to detect adolescent malingerers.

H. Arkes, D. Faust, T. Guilmette, 1988 .

Reference Point Adaptation: Tests in the Domain of Security Trading

D. Hirshleifer, H. Arkes, S. Lim, 2008 .

Hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses.

H. Arkes, H. Arkes, R. Wortmann, 1981, The Journal of applied psychology.

The psychology of waste.

Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, 1996 .

Ineffectiveness of the SUPPORT Intervention: Review of Explanations

H. Arkes, J. Lynn, N. Dawson, 2000, Journal of the American Geriatrics Society.

Neuropsychologists' training, experience, and judgment accuracy.

H. Arkes, D. Faust, T. Guilmette, 1988, Archives of clinical neuropsychology : the official journal of the National Academy of Neuropsychologists.

Inconclusives are not errors: a rejoinder to Dror

H. Arkes, J. Koehler, 2022, Law, Probability and Risk.

Inconclusive conclusions in forensic science: rejoinders to Scurich, Morrison, Sinha and Gutierrez

H. Arkes, J. Koehler, 2023, Law, Probability and Risk.

Analysis of Physicians’ Probability Estimates of a Medical Outcome Based on a Sequence of Events

H. Arkes, K. A. Arpin, S. Aberegg, 2022, JAMA network open.

Practical consequences of flawed social psychological research on bias

H. Arkes, 2022, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

Disjunction Between Probability and Verdict in Juror Decision Making

H. Arkes, Ryan S. Mayes, Brittany Shoots-Reinhard, 2012 .

TARGET ARTICLE: Attributions of Implicit Prejudice, or "Would Jesse Jackson 'Fail' the Implicit Association Test?"

H. Arkes, P. Tetlock, 2004 .

Being accurate but not necessarily Bayesian: Comments on Christensen-Szalanski and Beach

Ruth Beyth-Marom, Hal R. Arkes, H. Arkes, 1983 .

University of Pennsylvania Scholarlycommons the Ombudsman: Management Folklore and Management Science: on Portfolio Planning, Escalation Bias and Such the Ombudsman: Management Folklore and Management Science: on Portfolio Planning, Escalation Bias and Such Management Folklore and Management Science

J. Scott Armstrong, William T. Ross, H. Arkes, 2022 .

University of Pennsylvania Scholarlycommons Guidelines for Science: Evidence and Checklists Guidelines for Science: Evidence and Checklists

Kesten C. Green, R. Fildes, H. Arkes, 2022 .

The Ombudsman: Management Folklore and Management Science: On Portfolio Planning, Escalation Bias and Such

H. Arkes, Richard Franke, 2021 .

TARGET ARTICLE: Attributions of Implicit Prejudice, or "Would Jesse Jackson 'Fail' the Implicit Association Test?"

H. Arkes, P. Tetlock, 2004 .

Teaching Information Processing System (TIPS): Evaluation in a Large Introductory Psychology Class

H. Arkes, 1980 .

Conflicting Goals Influence Physicians’ Expressed Beliefs to Patients and Colleagues

H. Arkes, B. Mellers, Siyuan Yin, 2021, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

Response to Schmidt's (1988) comments on Faust, Hart, Guilmette, and Arkes (1988).

H. Arkes, D. Faust, T. Guilmette, 1990 .

The Influence of a Physician's Use of a Diagnostic Decision Aid on the Malpractice Verdicts of Mock Jurors

Victoria A. Shaffer, Victoria A Shaffer, Mitchell A Medow, 2008, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

Forecasting tournaments, epistemic humility and attitude depolarization

H. Arkes, B. Mellers, P. Tetlock, 2019, Cognition.

The influence of context and fluency

H. Arkes, 2013 .

The Ombudsman: Management Folklore and Management Science-On Portfolio Planning, Escalation Bias, and Such

H. Arkes, R. H. Franke, 1996 .

Patients' Preferences? Patient and Surrogate Disagreement in End-of-Life Decisions: Can Surrogates Accurately Predict

H. Arkes, Melissa A. Z. Marks, 2008 .

Decision making in SUPPORT: physician perceptions and preferences.

H. Arkes, N. Dawson, A. Connors, 1990, Journal of clinical epidemiology.

Piagetian Stage and Preferred Level of Complexity

H. Arkes, J. R. Turner, 1975 .

Analysis of Complexity Preference in Head Start and Nursery School Children

H. Arkes, A. Boykin, 1971 .

Do Juries Meet Our Expectations?

H. Arkes, B. Mellers, 2002, Law and human behavior.

Combining Expert Opinions

Jeryl L. Mumpower, Thomas R. Stewart, Hal R. Arkes, 1997, Science.