P. Goodwin

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The influence of product involvement and emotion on short-term product demand forecasting

V. Belvedere, P. Goodwin, 2017 .

Accuracy and bias of experts’ adjusted forecasts

Vera Shanshan Lin, P. Goodwin, Haiyan Song, 2014 .

The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments

Mary E. Thomson, Andrew C. Pollock, P. Goodwin, 2009 .

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

Paul Goodwin, George Wright, P. Goodwin, 1998 .

Improving the voluntary integration of statistical forecasts and judgment

P. Goodwin, 2000 .

Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research

P. Goodwin, George Wright, 1993 .

Principles of forecasting: A handbook for researchers and practitioners

J. Ord, P. Goodwin, J. A. Sniezek, 2002 .

Weight approximations in multi-attribute decision models

P. Goodwin, R. Roberts, 2002 .

Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years

P. Goodwin, M. O'Connor, Michael Lawrence, 2006 .

New Product Sales Forecasting in the Mobile Phone Industry : an evaluation of current methods

P. Goodwin, Semco Jahanbin, S. Meeran, 2013 .

Stability in the inefficient use of forecasting systems: A case study in a supply chain company

R. Fildes, P. Goodwin, 2020 .

Stability and Innovation in the Use of Forecasting Systems: A Case Study in a Supply-Chain Company

R. Fildes, P. Goodwin, 2020, SSRN Electronic Journal.

Understanding the use of forecasting systems : an interpretive study in a supply-chain

Paul Goodwin, Fotios Pasiouras, Wing Yee, 2007 .

Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice

Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal, M. Sinan Gönül, 2013 .

Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: Users’ reactions to presumed vs. experienced credibility

Paul Goodwin, Mary E. Thomson, Dilek Önkal, 2017 .

Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method

P. Goodwin, George Wright, 2009 .

On the asymmetry of the symmetric MAPE

P. Goodwin, R. Lawton, 1999 .

Forecasting games: can game theory win?

P. Goodwin, 2002 .

The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts

R. Fildes, P. Goodwin, K. Nikolopoulos, 2009 .

Providing support for the use of analogies in demand forecasting tasks

R. Fildes, P. Goodwin, Michael Lawrence, 2007 .

Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning

R. Fildes, P. Goodwin, Michael Lawrence, 2009 .

The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products

P. Goodwin, S. Meeran, Karima Dyussekeneva, 2014 .

Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects

R. Fildes, P. Goodwin, D. Önkal, 2018, International Journal of Forecasting.

A Quick Tour of Tourism Forecasting

P. Goodwin, 2008 .

Adjusting Judgemental Extrapolations using Theil's Method and Discounted Weighted Regression

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 1997 .

Simple versus complex forecasting : The evidence

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, Wilpen Gorr, 2015 .

A parsimonious explanation of observed biases when forecasting one’s own performance

P. Goodwin, S. Meeran, Baris Yalabik, 2016 .

Is a more liberal approach to conservatism needed in forecasting

P. Goodwin, 2015 .

Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigation

Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal, P. Goodwin, 2009 .

Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios

Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal, Celile Itir Gögüs, 2019, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making.

Forecasting support systems: What we know, what we need to know

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, R. Fildes, 2013 .

Producing more efficient demand forecasts

R. Fildes, P. Goodwin, Michael Lawrence, 2006 .

How to integrate management judgment with statistical forecasts

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2005 .

Information use in supply chain forecasting

R. Fildes, P. Goodwin, D. Önkal, 2015 .

Statistical correction of judgmental point forecasts and decisions

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 1996 .

Guiding Principles for the Forecasting Support System

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, R. Fildes, 2012 .

Reply to Commentaries by Flores, Önkal and Sanders

R. Fildes, P. Goodwin, Michael Lawrence, 2009 .

Business Forecasters Can Gain From the Cross-Fertilization of IOOB and JDM

P. Goodwin, 2010, Industrial and Organizational Psychology.

Engaging research with practice — An invited editorial

R. Fildes, P. Goodwin, 2021, International Journal of Forecasting.

Heuristics vs. Biases in S&OP: an Insight into the Decision Making Process of Emotionally Involved Planners

V. Belvedere, P. Goodwin, 2013 .

Forecasting: theory and practice

Fotios Petropoulos, Nikolaos Kourentzes, Daniele Apiletti, 2020, International Journal of Forecasting.

Combining Scenario Planning with Multiattribute Decision Making

P. Goodwin, 2013 .

Debiasing forecasts: how useful is the unbiasedness test?

P. Goodwin, R. Lawton, 2003 .

Prediction, projection and forecasting : Thomas L. Saaty and Luis G. Vargas, (Kluwer, Norwell, MA, 1991), pp. 251, $57.50

P. Goodwin, 1992 .

New Product Forecasting

P. Goodwin, 2015 .

Robust testing of the utility-based high-technology product sales forecasting models proposed by Decker and Gnibba-Yukawa

P. Goodwin, S. Meeran, 2012 .

A psychological approach to decision support systems: S.J. Hoch and D.A. Schkade, 1996, Management science, 42, 51–64

P. Goodwin, 1997 .

International Marketing Forecasts (2002),: London: Euromonitor Books, 606 pages. ISBN 0 84264-152-2, Paperback, $1250, £625, €1250.

P. Goodwin, 2003 .

Against Your Better Judgment? How Organizations Can Improve Their Use of Management Judgment in Forecasting

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, R. Fildes, 2007, Interfaces.

Our Section on Forecasting Support Systems Features the Article Data-cube Forecast- Ing for the Forecasting Support System. Noted Russian Consultant

P. Goodwin, 2022 .

Taking Stock: Assessing the True Cost of Forecast Errors

P. Goodwin, 2009 .

Judgement in forecasting

P. Goodwin, M. O'Connor, M. Parackal, 2007 .

Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment

P. Goodwin, 2015 .

When providing best-case and worst-case scenarios can be detrimental to judgmental demand forecasts and production decisions

Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal, M. Sinan Gönül, 2018 .

Feedback-labelling synergies in judgmental stock price forecasting

Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal-Atay, Mary E. Thomson, 2004, Decis. Support Syst..

Rethinking value elicitation for personal consequential decisions

George Wright, Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 1999 .

The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events

George Wright, Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2010 .

Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty

Yee Mey Goh, Paul Goodwin, Linda Newnes, 2012 .

Sales Forecasting Using Combination of Diffusion Model and Forecast Market - an Adaption of Prediction/preference Markets

Paul Goodwin, Karima Dyussekeneva, Sheik Meeran, 2013, MIM.

Influence of user participation on DSS use and decision accuracy

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, Michael Lawrence, 2002 .

Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge

Fotios Petropoulos, Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, 2017 .

Cairns, George and Goodwin, Paul and Wright, George (2015) A decision-analysis-based framework for analyzing stakeholder behaviour

P. Goodwin, G. Cairns, 2018 .

A decision-analysis-based framework for analysing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning

George Wright, George Cairns, Paul Goodwin, 2016, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

Opus: University of Bath Online Publication Store a Decision-analysis-based Framework for Analyzing Stakeholder Behaviour in Scenario Planning

P. Goodwin, G. Cairns, Wright, 2022 .

Restrictiveness and guidance in support systems

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, Michael Lawrence, 2011 .

Optimism bias and differential information use in supply chain forecasting

R. Fildes, P. Goodwin, 2011 .

Judgmental forecasts of time series affected by special events: does providing a statistical forecast improve accuracy?

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, R. Fildes, 1999 .

The Ombudsman: Forecasting Conflict Resolution. Is It Worth Asking an Expert?

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2007, Interfaces.

Future‐focussed thinking: combining scenario planning with decision analysis

George Wright, Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 1999 .

Supporting multiattribute decisions in scenario planning using a simple method based on ranks

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2019, FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE.

EXPLORING CUSTOMER PREFERENCE FOR LIFE INSURANCE IN INDIA - FACTOR ANALYSIS METHOD

P. Goodwin, P. Khandwalla, Daniel Aberer, 2004 .

When providing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios can be detrimental to judgmental demand forecasts and production decisions

Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal-Atay, M. Sinan Gönül, 2019, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

Correct or combine? Mechanically integrating judgmental forecasts with statistical methods

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2000 .

Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential

George Cairns, Paul Goodwin, Frances A. O'Brien, 2019, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

Teaching scenario planning: Lessons from practice in academe and business

George Wright, George Cairns, Paul Goodwin, 2009, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness

Robert Fildes, Michael Lawrence, Paul Goodwin, 2006, Decis. Support Syst..

Why Hindsight Can Damage Foresight

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2010 .

The use of analogies in forecasting the annual sales of new electronics products

Karima Dyussekeneva, Sheik Meeran, Paul Goodwin, 2013 .

Structuring the decision process: an evaluation of methods in the structuring the decision process

George Wright, Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2009 .

Do ‘big losses’ in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts’ behaviour?

Fotios Petropoulos, Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, 2016 .

Getting Real about Uncertainty

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2014 .

Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions?

Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal-Atay, Mary E. Thomson, 2010, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

The Holt-Winters Approach to Exponential Smoothing: 50 Years Old and Going Strong

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2010 .

Accuracy and bias of experts’ adjusted forecasts

Vera Shanshan Lin, P. Goodwin, Haiyan Song, 2014 .

Integrating management judgment and statistical methods to improve short-term forecasts

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2002 .

Enhancing Strategy Evaluation in Scenario Planning: a Role for Decision Analysis

Paul Goodwin, George Wright, P. Goodwin, 2001 .

Reproducibility in forecasting research

John E. Boylan, Argyrios Syntetos, Paul Goodwin, 2015 .

Providing support for decisions based on time series information under conditions of asymmetric loss

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2005, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series forecasting

Paul Goodwin, George Wright, P. Goodwin, 1994 .

Eliminating a framing bias by using simple instructions to 'think harder' and respondents with managerial experience: comment on breaking the frame.

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, George Wright, 2002 .

What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk

Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal-Atay, Herman O. Stekler, 2018, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

Forecasting with cue information: A comparison of multiple regression with alternative forecasting approaches

Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Vassilis Assimakopoulos, Alexandros Patelis, 2007, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

When do changes in consumer preferences make forecasts from choice-based conjoint models unreliable?

Paul Goodwin, Sheik Meeran, Joao Quariguasi Frota Neto, 2017, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

When simple alternatives to Bayes formula work well: Reducing the cognitive load when updating probability forecasts ☆

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2015 .

Profit from Your Forecasting Software: A Best Practice Guide for Sales Forecasters

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2018 .

Remarks on the application of the analytic hierarchy process to judgmental forecasting

Valerie Belton, Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 1996 .

Common sense and hard decision analysis: why might they conflict?

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2009 .

How to forecast: a guide for business

P. Goodwin, 2002 .

Understanding the use of forecasting software: an interpretive study in a supply-chain company

Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, 2006 .

The process of using a forecasting support system

Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, 2007 .

Practical forecasting for managers

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2003 .

Do 'big losses' in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts' behaviour?

R. Fildes, P. Goodwin, F. Petropoulos, 2016, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

New Evidence on the Value of Combining Forecasts

Paul Goodwin, P. Goodwin, 2009 .

On the accuracy of judgmental interventions on forecasting support systems

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, Michael Lawrence, 2005 .

Aviation Risk Perception: A Comparison Between Experts and Novices

Paul Goodwin, Mary E. Thomson, Mary E Thomson, 2004, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.