A. Graefe

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Predictive Validity of Evidence-Based Persuasion Principles: An Application of the Index Method

Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong, J. S. Armstrong, 2015 .

Persuasion Principles Index: Ready for Pretesting Advertisements

Kesten C. Green, J. S. Armstrong, Rui Du, 2016 .

Prediction Market Performance in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

A. Graefe, 2017 .

Assessing the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Popular Vote Forecasts

Alfred G. Cuzán, J. Armstrong, A. Graefe, 2017 .

Improving Causal Models for Election Forecasting: Further Evidence on the Golden Rule of Forecasting

Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 2014 .

Golden Rule of Forecasting Rearticulated: Forecast Unto Others as You Would Have Them Forecast Unto You

Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong, A. Graefe, 2015 .

Predictive Validity of Evidence-Based Persuasion Principles: An Application of the Index Method

Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong, Rui Du, 2015 .

Combining forecasts: An application to U.S. Presidential Elections

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, Alfred G. Cuzán, 2010 .

Conditions Under Which Index Models Are Useful

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, J. Armstrong, 2010 .

Predicting Elections from Biographical Information About Candidates: A Test of the Index Method

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, J. Armstrong, 2010 .

Readers’ perception of computer-generated news: Credibility, expertise, and readability

A. Graefe, Mario Haim, Bastian Haarmann, 2018 .

3 Guide to Automated Journalism

A. Graefe, 2016 .

Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be Conservative

Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 2015 .

LONG-TERM FORECASTING WITH PREDICTION MARKETS - A FIELD EXPERIMENT ON APPLICABILITY AND EXPERT CONFIDENCE

Christof Weinhardt, Andreas Graefe, A. Graefe, 2012 .

Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be Conservative

Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong, A. Graefe, 2015 .

Golden Rule of Forecasting : Be Conservative 6 February 2014 Working Paper Draft

Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong, A. Graefe, 2014 .

Accuracy of German federal election forecasts, 2013 & 2017

A. Graefe, 2019, International Journal of Forecasting.

Do Econometric Models Provide More Accurate Forecasts When They are More Conservative? A Test of Political Economy Models for Forecasting Elections

Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong, A. Graefe, 2015 .

German Election Forecasting: Comparing and Combining Methods for 2013

A. Graefe, 2015 .

Limitations of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging for Forecasting Social Science Problems

A. Graefe, H. Kuechenhoff, Veronika Stierle, 2014 .

Combining Forecasts: An Application to Elections

Andreas Graefe, Alfred G. Cuzán, J. Armstrong, 2013 .

Forecasting

Kesten C. Green, David N. Ammons, Dale J. Roenigk, 1994, Information.

Improving Forecasts Using Equally Weighted Predictors

Andreas Graefe, A. Graefe, 2013 .

Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries

Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong, A. Graefe, 2019, PloS one.

Predicting elections: Experts, polls, and fundamentals

A. Graefe, 2018, Judgment and Decision Making.

The PollyVote Forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election

Alfred G. Cuzán, J. Armstrong, A. Graefe, 2016, PS: Political Science & Politics.

Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues

J. Armstrong, A. Graefe, 2012 .

Candidates' Personality and the Outcome of U.S. Presidential Elections

A. Graefe, 2013 .

Issue and Leader Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

A. Graefe, 2013 .

A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts

J. Scott Armstrong, Robert S. Erikson, Christopher Wlezien, 2017, PS: Political Science & Politics.

Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote

Alfred G. Cuzán, J. Armstrong, A. Graefe, 2014, PS: Political Science & Politics.

Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Positions on Issues and Policies

J. Armstrong, A. Graefe, 2008 .

The 2016 Pollyvote Popular Vote Forecast: A Preliminary Analysis

Alfred G. Cuzán, J. Armstrong, A. Graefe, 2016 .

Combined Forecasts of the 2012 Election: The PollyVote

J. Armstrong, A. Graefe, Randall J. Jones, 2013 .

Automated Journalism: A Meta-Analysis of Readers’ Perceptions of Human-Written in Comparison to Automated News

A. Graefe, Nina Bohlken, 2020 .

Combining Forecasts for the 2022 French Presidential Election: The PollyVote

A. Graefe, 2022, PS: Political Science & Politics.

University of Pennsylvania Scholarlycommons Comparing Face-to-face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi and Prediction Markets on an Estimation Task Comparing Face-to-face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi and Prediction Markets on an Estimation Task Comparing Face-to-face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delph

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, J. Armstrong, 2022 .

Guide to automated journalism

Andreas Graefe, A. Graefe, 2016 .

Burst of the Filter Bubble?

Andreas Graefe, Hans-Bernd Brosius, Mario Haim, 2018 .

Automated News

Andreas Graefe, Mario Haim, A. Graefe, 2017 .

Forecasts of the 2012 US Presidential Election based on Candidates’ Perceived Competence in Handling the Most Important Issue*

J. Armstrong, A. Graefe, 2013, Political Science Research and Methods.

Accuracy gains of adding vote expectation surveys to a combined forecast of US presidential election outcomes

Andreas Graefe, A. Graefe, 2015 .

Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections

Andreas Graefe, A. Graefe, 2014 .

Combining forecasts: An Application to Election Forecasts

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, Alfred G. Cuzán, 2011 .

Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Andreas Graefe, 2007 .

Towards pervasive computing in health care – A literature review

Timm Faulwasser, Andreas Graefe, Carsten Orwat, 2008, BMC Medical Informatics Decis. Mak..

Forecasting proportional representation elections from non-representative expectation surveys

A. Graefe, 2016 .

Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, J. Armstrong, 2012 .

Predicting Elections from the Most Important Issue: A Test of the Take-the-Best Heuristic

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, J. Armstrong, 2011 .

Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, J. Armstrong, 2009 .

Conditions Under Which Index Models are Useful: Reply to Bio-Index Commentaries

J. Armstrong, A. Graefe, 2008 .

Prediction markets for foresight

Stefan Luckner, Christof Weinhardt, Andreas Graefe, 2010 .

Limitations of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging for Forecasting Social Science Problems

Helmut Küchenhoff, Bernhard Riedl, Andreas Graefe, 2014 .

Author ' s personal copy Prediction markets for foresight

A. Graefe, Christof Weinhardt, Stefan Luckner, 2010 .

Embrace the Differences: Revisiting the Pollyvote Method of Combining Forecasts for U.S. Presidential Elections (2004 to 2020)

A. Graefe, 2021, SSRN Electronic Journal.

University of Pennsylvania Scholarlycommons Guidelines for Science: Evidence and Checklists Guidelines for Science: Evidence and Checklists

Kesten C. Green, R. Fildes, H. Arkes, 2022 .

Combining Forecasts: Evidence on the relative accuracy of the simple average and Bayesian Model Averaging for predicting social science problems

A. Graefe, H. Küchenhoff, Veronika Stierle, 2014 .

Poll Illiteracy: How the Public Misunderstands Polls

A. Graefe, 2021 .

The Digitization of News Aggregation: Experimental Evidence on Intention to Use and Willingness to Pay for Personalized News Aggregators

Thomas Hess, Oliver Oechslein, Andreas Graefe, 2015, 2015 48th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

Adopting Pervasive Computing for Routine Use in Healthcare

Mandy Scheermesser, Hannah Kosow, Carsten Holtmann, 2010, IEEE Pervasive Computing.

A. Graefe, Wharton School, Marketing Papers, 2022 .

Prediction Markets and the “Trough of Disillusionment”

Andreas Graefe, A. Graefe, 2011 .

Are Prediction Markets More Accurate than Simple Surveys

Andreas Graefe, A. Graefe, 2010 .

Prediction Markets for Forecasting Drug Development

Andreas Graefe, A. Graefe, 2010 .

Readers’ perception of computer-generated news: Credibility, expertise, and readability

A. Graefe, Mario Haim, Bastian Haarmann, 2018 .

Combining Forecasts for the 2021 German Federal Election: The PollyVote

A. Graefe, 2021, PS: Political Science & Politics.

Forecasting Principles

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Andreas Graefe, 2011, International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science.

Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote

Alfred G. Cuzán, J. Armstrong, A. Graefe, 2009 .

The PollyVote’s Year-Ahead Forecast of the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Alfred G. Cuzán, J. Armstrong, A. Graefe, 2012 .

Combining Forecasts for U.S. Presidential Elections: The Pollyvote

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, Alfred G. Cuzán, 2009 .

Group decision making. Face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi, and prediction markets compared

J. Armstrong, A. Graefe, 2008 .