Willy P Aspinall

发表

Ellie M Scourse, Willy P Aspinall, Neil Chapman, 2017 .

Application of expert judgment to the quantification of a damage scale for reinforced concrete buildings exposed to fire

Luke Bisby, Tiziana Rossetto, David Rush, 2015 .

Thirty-Year Bayesian Updating of PSHA for Hinkley Point NPP

Gordon Woo, Willy P Aspinall, W. Aspinall, 2015 .

Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment

Anne S. Kiremidjian, David J. Wald, Willy P Aspinall, 2014 .

A microprocessor-based system for digitizing seismic events from magnetic-tape recordings

Willy P Aspinall, Joan L. Latchman, 1983 .

Selfridge’s Seismograph

Roger M.W. Musson, Willy P Aspinall, R. Musson, 2014 .

Application of expert judgement to the quantification of a damage scale for RC buildings exposed to fire

Luke Bisby, Tiziana Rossetto, David Rush, 2015 .

Application of Bayes Network analysis to RWGD siting

Willy P Aspinall, Steve Sparks, Thea K Hincks, 2017 .

Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

Rob Lamb, Thorsten Wagener, Willy P Aspinall, 2016 .

An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets

Willy P Aspinall, Jonathan L. Bamber, W. Aspinall, 2013 .

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: What should constitute good practice?

Jim W. Hall, Keith Beven, Katsuichiro Goda, 2017, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.

12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2015

Luke Bisby, Tiziana Rossetto, David Rush, 2015 .

Use of expert judgment elicitation to estimate seismic vulnerability of selected building types

David J. Wald, Willy P Aspinall, Keith Porter, 2012 .

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas

Jim W. Hall, Paul Smith, Keith Beven, 2016, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.

Assessing vent opening location probability at Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex with uncertainty quantification by using Structured Expert Judgment

Andrea Bevilacqua, Willy P Aspinall, Peter J. Baxter, 2015 .

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment Part 1: A review of the issues

Jim W. Hall, Paul Smith, Keith Beven, 2015 .

Use of expert opinion elicitation to quantify the internal erosion process in dams

Willy P Aspinall, A. J. Brown, W. Aspinall, 2004 .

SAPPUR: NERC Scoping Study on Uncertainty and Risk in Natural Hazards

Willy P Aspinall, Jim E Freer, Thea K Hincks, 2009 .

Long term exposure to respirable volcanic ash on Montserrat: a time series simulation

Gordon Woo, Willy P Aspinall, Thea K Hincks, 2006 .

Using hidden multi-state Markov models with multi-parameter volcanic data to provide empirical evidence for alert level decision-support

Roberto Carniel, Gordon Woo, Willy P Aspinall, 2006 .

The Montserrat Volcano Observatory: its evolution, organization, role and activities

Willy P Aspinall, R. S. J. Sparks, Susan C. Loughlin, 2002, Geological Society, London, Memoirs.

Understanding causality and uncertainty in volcanic observations: An example of forecasting eruptive activity on Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Willy P Aspinall, Henry M. Odbert, W. Aspinall, 2017 .

Assessing infrequent large earthquakes using geomorphology and geodesy: the Malawi Rift

Katsuichiro Goda, Willy P Aspinall, Juliet Biggs, 2015, Natural Hazards.

A long-term volcanic hazard event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes (Tenerife, Canary Islands)

Ramón Ortiz, Paul D. Cole, Joan Martí, 2008 .

Willy P Aspinall, Katharine V. Cashman, R. S. J. Sparks, 2016 .

Volcanic Risk Management

Willy P Aspinall, Russell Blong, W. Aspinall, 2015 .

Seismicity and earthquake hazard in Trinidad and Tobago, West Indies

Willy P Aspinall, W. Aspinall, J. Shepherd, 1983 .

Volcanic Activity: Frontiers and Challenges in Forecasting, Prediction and Risk Assessment

Willy P Aspinall, W. Aspinall, R. Sparks, 2013 .

Evidence-based volcanology: application to eruption crises

Willy P Aspinall, Peter J. Baxter, G. Woo, 2003 .

Expert judgement and re-elicitation for prion disease risk uncertainties

Roger M. Cooke, Susie ElSaadany, Daniel Krewski, 2012 .

Temporal changes in the cumulative piecewise gradient of a variant of the Gutenberg–Richter relationship, and the imminence of extreme events

Willy P Aspinall, W. Aspinall, J. Latchman, 2008 .

On the application of Hidden Markov Model and Bayesian Belief Network to seismic noise at Las Cañadas Caldera, Tenerife, Spain

Roberto Carniel, Willy P Aspinall, Marta Tárraga, 2008 .

Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions

Willy P Aspinall, W. Aspinall, 2006 .

Using expert elicitation to characterise long-term tectonic risks to radioactive waste repositories in Japan

Ellie M Scourse, Willy P Aspinall, Neil Chapman, 2015 .

Prion disease risk uncertainties associated with urine-derived and recombinant fertility drugs

Ricky Cheung, Daniel Krewski, Willy P Aspinall, 2019, International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management.

Comment on “Social studies of volcanology: knowledge generation and expert advice on active volcanoes” by Amy Donovan, Clive Oppenheimer and Michael Bravo [Bull Volcanol (2012) 74:677-689]

Willy P Aspinall, W. Aspinall, 2012, Bulletin of Volcanology.

Implications of legal scrutiny processes (including the L’Aquila trial and other recent court cases) for future volcanic risk governance

Richard Bretton, Ryerson Christie, Willy P Aspinall, 2015, Journal of Applied Volcanology.

Research Synthesis Methods in an Age of Globalized Risks: Lessons from the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease Expert Elicitation

Tine Hald, Arie H. Havelaar, Robert E Black, 2016, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

Assessing future vent opening locations at the Somma‐Vesuvio volcanic complex: 1. A new information geodatabase with uncertainty characterizations

Willy P Aspinall, Augusto Neri, Raffaello Cioni, 2017 .

A Review of Volcanic Hazard and Risk Assessments at the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 1997 to 2011

Willy P Aspinall, G. Wadge, 2014 .

Seismicity associated with dome growth and collapse at the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Brian Baptie, Willy P Aspinall, R. Luckett, 1998 .

Expert Judgement and the Montserrat Volcano Eruption

Roger M. Cooke, Willy P Aspinall, R. Cooke, 1998 .

Retrospective analysis of uncertain eruption precursors at La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe, 1975–77: volcanic hazard assessment using a Bayesian Belief Network approach

Willy P Aspinall, Thea K Hincks, W. Aspinall, 2014, Journal of Applied Volcanology.

Expert Elicitation and Judgement

Roger M. Cooke, Willy P Aspinall, R. Cooke, 2013 .

Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: 1. Vent opening maps

Willy P Aspinall, Peter J. Baxter, Augusto Neri, 2015 .

Santorini unrest 2011–2012: an immediate Bayesian belief network analysis of eruption scenario probabilities for urgent decision support under uncertainty

Gordon Woo, Willy P Aspinall, W. Aspinall, 2014, Journal of Applied Volcanology.

The last 5000 years of activity at Sete Cidades volcano (São Miguel Island, Azores): Implications for hazard assessment

Willy P Aspinall, Teresa Ferreira, W. Aspinall, 2008 .

Recommendations for Assessing Volcanic Hazards at Sites of Nuclear Installations

Charles B. Connor, Willy P Aspinall, Brittain E. Hill, 2009 .

Quantitative assessment of volcanic ash hazards for health and infrastructure at Mt. Etna (Italy) by numerical simulation

Willy P Aspinall, Thea K Hincks, Peter J. Baxter, 2010 .