Y. Kagan

发表

Approximating the Distribution of Pareto Sums

F. Schoenberg, I. Zaliapin, Y. Kagan, 2003 .

Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 2000 .

Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, R. Geller, 1997, Science.

Is Earthquake Seismology a Hard, Quantitative Science?

Y. Kagan, 1999 .

Earthquake Number Forecasts Testing

Y. Kagan, 2016, 1609.08217.

Earthquake size distribution: power-law with exponent beta=1/2 ?

Y. Kagan, 2009, 0908.1207.

California Earthquakes, 1800–2007: A Unified Catalog with Moment Magnitudes, Uncertainties, and Focal Mechanisms

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, Qi Wang, 2009 .

Rank‐ordering statistics of extreme events: Application to the distribution of large earthquakes

D. Sornette, L. Knopoff, C. Vanneste, 1995, cond-mat/9510035.

Universality of the Seismic Moment-frequency Relation

Y. Kagan, 1999 .

Importance of small earthquakes for stress transfers and earthquake triggering

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, A. Helmstetter, 2004, physics/0407018.

Earthquake spatial distribution: the correlation dimension

Y. Kagan, 2006 .

Short-Term Properties of Earthquake Catalogs and Models of Earthquake Source

Y. Kagan, 2004 .

Comparison of Short-Term and Time-Independent Earthquake Forecast Models for Southern California

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, A. Helmstetter, 2006 .

High-Resolution Long-Term and Short-Term Earthquake Forecasts for California

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, A. Helmstetter, 2011 .

Long‐term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 1994 .

Seismic moment distribution revisited: I. Statistical results

Y. Kagan, 2002 .

Plate-Tectonic Analysis of Shallow Seismicity: Apparent Boundary Width, Beta, Corner Magnitude, Coupled Lithosphere Thickness, and Coupling in Seven Tectonic Settings

Y. Kagan, P. Bird, 2004 .

High-resolution Time-independent Grid-based Forecast for M ≥ 5 Earthquakes in California

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, A. Helmstetter, 2007 .

Adaptively smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy

Y. Kagan, S. Wiemer, D. Jackson, 2010, 1003.4374.

Whole Earth high-resolution earthquake forecasts

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 2012 .

Stochastic synthesis of earthquake catalogs

L. Knopoff, Y. Kagan, 1981 .

Statistical Short-Term Earthquake Prediction

L. Knopoff, Y. Kagan, 1987, Science.

Long-term earthquake clustering

Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, Y. Kagan, 1991 .

Tohoku earthquake: a surprise?

Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, Y. Kagan, 2011, 1112.5217.

Accuracy of modern global earthquake catalogs

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 2003 .

Regression problems for magnitudes

Silvia Castellaro, Yan Y. Kagan, Francesco Mulargia, 2006 .

Why Does Theoretical Physics Fail to Explain and Predict Earthquake Occurrence

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 2006 .

Earthquake size distribution and earthquake insurance

Y. Kagan, 1997 .

Seismic moment distribution revisited: II. Moment conservation principle

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 2002 .

Fractal dimension of brittle fracture

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 1991 .

Comparison of short-term and long-term earthquake forecast models for southern California

Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, Agnès Helmstetter, 2006 .

Spatial distribution of earthquakes: the two-point correlation function

Yan Y. Kagan, Leon Knopoff, L. Knopoff, 1980 .

Likelihood analysis of earthquake catalogues

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 1991 .

Worldwide earthquake forecasts

Y. Kagan, 2017, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment.

Estimation of the upper cutoff parameter for the tapered Pareto distribution

Y. Y. Kagan, F. Schoenberg, F. Schoenberg, 2001, Journal of Applied Probability.

Statistical distributions of earthquake numbers: consequence of branching process

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 2009, 0909.2372.

Implications of Geodetic Strain Rate for Future Earthquakes, with a Five-Year Forecast of M5 Earthquakes in Southern California

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, Zheng‐Kang Shen, 2007 .

Short- and Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts for California and Nevada

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 2010 .

Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagrams

Y. Kagan, 2008, 0806.2885.

Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten years after

Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, Y. Kagan, 1991 .

New seismic gap hypothesis: Five years after

Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, Y. Kagan, 1995 .

Are earthquakes predictable

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 1997 .

Testable Earthquake Forecasts for 1999

Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, Y. Kagan, 1999 .

Seismic gaps and earthquakes

Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, Y. Kagan, 2003 .

Earthquakes: Lessons for the Future

Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, Y. Kagan, 2022 .

Statistics of characteristic earthquakes

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 1993 .

Reply [to “Comment on “Seismic gap hypothesis: Ten years after” by Y. Y. Kagan and D. D. Jackson”]

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 1993 .

Double-couple earthquake source: symmetry and rotation

Y. Kagan, 2012, 1207.5079.

Cannot Earthquakes Be Predicted

Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, Francesco Mulargia, 1997 .

High Resolution Long- and Short-Term Earthquake Forecasts for California

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, A. Helmstetter, 2009, 0910.4981.

Incremental Stress and Earthquakes

Y. Kagan, 1994 .

LONGER IT HAS BEEN SINCE T H E LAST EARTHQUAKE , THE LONGER T H E EXPECTED TIME TILL T H E NEXT ?

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, P. Davis, 1989 .

LONG- AND SHORT-TERM EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS DURING THE TOHOKU SEQUENCE

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 2012, 1201.1659.

1 GEAR 1 : a Global Earthquake Activity Rate model constructed from 1 geodetic strain rates and smoothed seismicity 2

C. Kreemer, Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 2015 .

Printed August ACCURACY OF MODERN GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE CATALOGS

Y. Kagan, 2007 .

Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 2010 .

Comment on d Testing earthquake prediction methods : b The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV z 5 . 8 QT by V . G .

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, Kossobokov, 2006 .

Comment on ‘Testing earthquake prediction methods: “The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8”’ by V.G. Kossobokov

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 2006 .

Discussion Comment on dTesting earthquake prediction methods: bThe West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV z5.8QT by V.G. Kossobokov

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 2006 .

Rank‐ordering statistics of extreme events: Application to the distribution of large earthquakes

D. Sornette, L. Knopoff, C. Vanneste, 1995, cond-mat/9510035.

Title : Earthquake spatial distribution : the correlation dimension

Y. Kagan, 2007 .

Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment

Y. Kagan, 1997 .

Characteristic Earthquakes and the Parkfield Prediction

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 2022 .

PostScript file created : October 28 , 2003 APPROXIMATING THE DISTRIBUTION OF PARETO SUMS

F. Schoenberg, Y. Kagan, Zaliapin, 2003 .

Distribution of incremental static stress caused by earthquakes

Y. Kagan, 1994 .

Importance of small earthquakes for stress transfers and earthquake triggering

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, A. Helmstetter, 2004, physics/0407018.

C CHARACTERISTIC EARTHQUAKES AND SEISMIC GAPS

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 2011 .

Characteristic earthquake model, 1884 -- 2011, R.I.P

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, R. Geller, 2012, 1207.4836.

Observational evidence for earthquakes as a nonlinear dynamic process

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 1994 .

HELMSTETTER , KAGAN , AND JACKSON : STRESS TRANSFERS AND EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERING

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, A. Helmstetter, 2004 .

Aftershock Zone Scaling

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 2002 .

Stochastic model of earthquake fault geometry

Y. Kagan, 1982 .

Spatial distribution of earthquakes: the four-point moment function

Y. Kagan, 1981 .

Statistical study of the occurrence of shallow earthquakes

Yan Y. Kagan, Leon Knopoff, L. Knopoff, 1978 .

Correlations of earthquake focal mechanisms

Y. Kagan, 1992 .

Random stress and earthquake statistics: spatial dependence

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 1987 .

The first‐order statistical moment of the seismic moment tensor

L. Knopoff, Y. Kagan, 1985 .

Temporal correlations of earthquake focal mechanisms

Y. Kagan, 2000 .

Linear and Nonlinear Relations between Relative Plate Velocity and Seismicity

F. Schoenberg, Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 2009 .

Random stress and Omori's law

Y. Kagan, 2010, 1011.4992.

The longer it has been since the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next?

Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, Paul M. Davis, 1989 .

Static sources of elastic deformation in a homogeneous half-space

Y. Kagan, 1988 .

3-D rotation of double-couple earthquake sources

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 1991 .

Double‐couple earthquake focal mechanism: random rotation and display

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 2005 .

Seismic moment distribution

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 1991 .

Earthquakes: Models, Statistics, Testable Forecasts

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 2014 .

Seismic moment‐frequency relation for shallow earthquakes: Regional comparison

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 1997 .

Worldwide Doublets of Large Shallow Earthquakes 1149

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 2005 .

Worldwide Doublets of Large Shallow Earthquakes

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 1999 .

VAN method lacks validity

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 1998 .

Earthquake slip distribution: A statistical model

Y. Kagan, 2005 .

Earthquake rate and magnitude distributions of great earthquakes for use in global forecasts

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 2016 .

Spatial aftershock distribution: Effect of normal stress

Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, Y. Kagan, 1998 .

Plate-Tectonic Analysis of Shallow Seismicity: Apparent Boundary Width, beta-Value, Corner Magnitude, Coupled Lithosphere Thickness, and Coupling in 7 Tectonic Settings

Y. Kagan, P. Bird, 2003 .

Multipole expansions of extended sources of elastic deformation

Y. Kagan, 1988 .

Point sources of elastic deformation: elementary sources, dynamic displacements

Y. Kagan, 1987 .

A New Catalog of Southern California Earthquakes, 1800–2005

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, Y. Rong, 2006 .

Statistical search for non-random features of the seismicity of strong earthquakes

Yan Y. Kagan, Leon Knopoff, L. Knopoff, 1976 .

On the geometric complexity of earthquake focal zone and fault systems: A statistical study

Y. Kagan, 2008, 0806.2329.

n the geometric complexity of earthquake focal zone and fault systems : statistical study an

Y. Kagan, 2022 .

Relation between mainshock rupture process and Omori's law for aftershock moment release rate

Yan Y. Kagan, Heidi Houston, Y. Kagan, 2005 .

Plate Tectonics and Earthquake Potential of Spreading Ridges and Oceanic Transform Faults

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, P. Bird, 2013 .

California Earthquake Forecasts Based on Smoothed Seismicity: Model Choices

Yan Y. Kagan, Qi Wang, David D. Jackson, 2011 .

Comment on "The Gutenberg - Richter or characteristic earthquake distribution, which is it?" by S

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 1996 .

Global earthquake forecasts

Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, Y. Kagan, 2011 .

Earthquake size distribution : Power-law with exponent β ≡ 1 2 ?

Y. Kagan, 2009 .

Earthquake Patterns in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, P. Bird, 2010 .

Analysis of the theory of extremes as applied to earthquake problems

Yan Y. Kagan, Leon Knopoff, L. Knopoff, 1977 .

Dependence of seismicity on depth

Yan Y. Kagan, Leon Knopoff, L. Knopoff, 1980 .

Earthquake prediction and its optimization

G. M. Molchan, Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 1992 .

Using the ETAS Model for Catalog Declustering and Seismic Background Assessment

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, R. Console, 2010 .

Simplified algorithms for calculating double-couple rotation

Y. Kagan, 2007 .

Title Simplified algorithms for calculating double-couple rotation Permalink

Y. Kagan, 2008 .

Simpli ed algorithms for calculating double-couplerotationYan

Y. Kagan, 2007 .

b Values for foreshocks and aftershocks in real and simulated earthquake sequences

L. Knopoff, Y. Y. Kagan, L. Knopoff, 1982 .

california ear thquakes, 1800-2007: a uni fied cata log with mom ent mag nitudes, uncer tainties, and foc al mec hanisms

Yan Y. Kagan, Qi Wang, David D. Jackson, 2009 .

A NEW CATALOG OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKES �

Y. Kagan, Y. Rong, 2005 .

Short Running Title: Characteristic Earthquakes and Parkfield Prediction

Y. Kagan, 2022 .

GEAR1: A Global Earthquake Activity Rate Model Constructed from Geodetic Strain Rates and Smoothed Seismicity

C. Kreemer, Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 2015 .

A Stochastic Forecast of California Earthquakes Based on Fault Slip and Smoothed Seismicity

Yan Y. Kagan, Stefan Wiemer, Qi Wang, 2013 .

Comment on " The Gutenberg-Richter or Characteristic Earthquake Distribution , Which Is It ? " by

Y. Kagan, S. Wesnousky, 2005 .

Stress and earthquakes in southern California, 1850–2004

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, Zhen Liu, 2005 .

The two-point correlation function of the seismic moment tensor

L. Knopoff, Y. Kagan, 1985 .

Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 2013, 1310.2977.

Problems in the Modelling and Statistical Analysis of Earthquakes

Yan Y. Kagan, D. Vere-Jones, D. Vere-Jones, 1996 .

EARTHQUAKE SLIP DISTRIBUTION � A STATISTICAL MODEL

Y. Kagan, Yan, 2005 .

On Earthquake Predictability Measurement: Information Score and Error Diagram

Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 2007 .

Short Running Title: Characteristic Earthquakes and Parkfield Prediction

Y. Kagan, 2022 .

Statistical tests of VAN earthquake predictions: Comments and reflections

Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, Y. Kagan, 1996 .

VAN earthquake predictions‒An attempt at statistical evaluation

Yan Y. Kagan, Y. Kagan, 1996 .

Characteristic Earthquakes and Seismic Gaps

Y. Kagan, D. Jackson, 2019, Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics.

On the geometry of an earthquake fault system

Y. Kagan, 1992 .