Matthew Welsh

发表

Problems with the Elicitation of Uncertainty

Michael D. Lee, Reidar Brumer Bratvold, Steve Begg, 2004 .

Why are decisions for oil and gas projects not always made the way they ‘should’ be?

S. Begg, Matthew Welsh, David Newman, 2018 .

More-or-less Elicitation (mole) 1 Running Head: More-or-less Elicitation (mole) More-or-less Elicitation (mole): Improving the Accuracy and Calibration of Estimates

Matthew Welsh, 2011 .

Uncertainty vs. Variability: What's the Difference and Why is it Important?

R. Bratvold, S. Begg, Matthew Welsh, 2014 .

Modeling the Economic Impact of Cognitive Biases on Oil and Gas Decisions

Reidar Brumer Bratvold, Steve Begg, Matthew Welsh, 2007 .

Does memory mediate susceptibility to cognitive biases? Implications of the decision-by-sampling theory

D. Navarro, Matthew Welsh, Belinda Bruza, 2008 .

More-or-less elicitation (MOLE): Testing a heuristic elicitation method

S. Begg, Matthew Welsh, Micheal D. Lee, 2008 .

Individual differences in anchoring: Traits and experience

S. Begg, Matthew Welsh, N. Burns, 2014 .

A Formal Foundation for Failure Avoidance and Diagnosis

T. Kelly, S. Lafortune, Matthew Welsh, 2009 .

PUBLISHED VERSION Welsh, Matthew Brian Expertise and the wisdom of crowds: Whose judgments to trust and when Building bridges

Matthew Welsh, R. Cooper, N. Miyake, 2012 .

Repeated judgments in elicitation tasks: efficacy of the MOLE method

M. Lee, S. Begg, Matthew Welsh, 2009 .

Indexing Esport Performance

Matthew Welsh, Nicolas Besombes, Benjamin Sharpe, 2022, Journal of Electronic Gaming and Esports.

Seeing is believing: Priors, trust, and base rate neglect

Daniel J. Navarro, Matthew Welsh, D. Navarro, 2012 .

Can 1 h of training lead to better project decision-making?

S. Begg, Matthew Welsh, David Newman, 2020 .

More-or-less elicitation (MOLE): reducing bias in range estimation and forecasting

Steve Begg, Matthew Welsh, S. Begg, 2018, EURO Journal on Decision Processes.

Number Preference, Precision and Implicit Confidence

Daniel J. Navarro, Steve Begg, Matthew Welsh, 2011, CogSci.

Cognitive Biases in the Petroleum Industry: Impact and Remediation

Reidar Brumer Bratvold, Steve Begg, Matthew Welsh, 2005 .

DECISION TYPE—A KEY TO REALISING THE POTENTIAL OF DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Chris Smith, S. I. Mackie, Steve Begg, 2007 .

In What Sense is P(A|B) P(B) = P(A,B)? The Relationship between Distributional Format and Subjective Probability Estimates

Daniel J. Navarro, Matthew Welsh, Belinda Bruza, 2010 .

Experience and Cognitive Biases in Oil and Gas Industry Personnel

Matthew Welsh, 2005 .

Predicting Overprecision in Range Estimation

Matthew Welsh, Carolyn Semmler, Matthew Kaesler, 2016, CogSci.

The Cognitive Reflection Test: familiarity and predictive power in professionals

Steve Begg, Matthew Welsh, S. Begg, 2017, CogSci.

May I Have Your Attention? Testing a Subjective Attention Scale

Matthew Welsh, 2020, CogSci.

The Cognitive Reflection Test: how much more than Numerical Ability?

Nicholas Burns, Matthew Welsh, Paul H. Delfabbro, 2013, CogSci.

Perceptions of Psychological Momentum in Basketball

Matthew Welsh, Thomas Hilbig, Paul H. Delfabbro, 2017, CogSci.

A Tale of Two Disasters: Biases in Risk Communication

Daniel J. Navarro, Steve Begg, Matthew Welsh, 2016, CogSci.

Expertise and the Wisdom of Crowds: Whose Judgments to Trust and When

Matthew Welsh, Matthew Welsh, 2012, CogSci.

Of parrots and parsimony: reconsidering Morgan's canon

Matthew Welsh, 2010 .

Does anchoring cause overconfidence only in experts?

Daniel J. Navarro, Steve Begg, Belinda Bruza, 2011, CogSci.