P. Turchin

发表

An Empirically Based Model for Latitudinal Gradient in Vole Population Dynamics

P. Turchin, I. Hanski, 1997, The American Naturalist.

War, space, and the evolution of Old World complex societies

Thomas E. Currie, S. Gavrilets, P. Turchin, 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Nonlinear time-series modeling of vole population fluctuations

P. Turchin, 1996, Researches on Population Ecology.

WHY DO POPULATIONS CYCLE? A SYNTHESIS OF STATISTICAL AND MECHANISTIC MODELING APPROACHES

B. Kendall, S. Ellner, S. Wood, 1999 .

Chaos in Ecology: Is Mother Nature a Strange Attractor?*

S. Ellner, A. Hastings, H. Godfray, 1993 .

Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis

P. Turchin, 2013 .

Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2013 .

Population Consequences of Aggregative Movement

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 1989 .

[Does population ecology have general laws?].

P. Turchin, 2001, Zhurnal obshchei biologii.

SMALL‐RODENT DYNAMICS AND PREDATION

P. Turchin, I. Hanski, H. Henttonen, 2001 .

Population regulation : a synthetic view

P. Turchin, 1999 .

Long‐Term Population Cycles in Human Societies

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2009, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.

Population oscillations of boreal rodents: regulation by mustelid predators leads to chaos

Erkki Korpimäki, Ilkka Hanski, Peter Turchin, 1993, Nature.

Scientific Prediction in Historical Sociology : Ibn Khaldun meets

P. Turchin, A. Korotayev, Andrey Korotayev, 2011 .

Chaos and stability in rodent population dynamics: evidence from non-linear time-series analysis

P. Turchin, 1993 .

When can noise induce chaos and why does it matter: a critique

Stephen P. Ellner, Peter Turchin, S. Ellner, 2005 .

Contrasting alternative hypotheses about rodent cycles by translating them into parameterized models

Ilkka Hanski, Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2001 .

Living on the edge of chaos: population dynamics of fennoscandian voles

Stephen P. Ellner, Peter Turchin, S. Ellner, 2000 .

PERIODIC DYNAMICS IN DAPHNIA POPULATIONS: BIOLOGICAL INTERACTIONS AND EXTERNAL FORCING

James P. Grover, Peter Turchin, H. Godfray, 2000 .

Population Regulation" Old Arguments and a New Synthesis

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 1995 .

Chaos in microtine populations

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 1995, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

Complex Dynamics in Ecological Time Series

Peter Turchin, Andrew D. Taylor, P. Turchin, 1992 .

Failed States and Nation-Building: A Cultural Evolutionary Perspective

P. Turchin, 2012 .

Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2003 .

Response to Oscillations in Population Sizes – From Ecology to History

P. Turchin, 2005 .

East-West Orientation of Historical Empires

T. D. Hall, P. Turchin, Jonathan M Adams, 2004 .

East-West Orientation of Historical

T. D. Hall, P. Turchin, Jonathan M Adams, 2006 .

UC Irvine Structure and Dynamics Title Comment on : Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States by

P. Turchin, 2005 .

Did food and fuel help shape our value systems

P. Turchin, I. Morris, 2015 .

The Equinox2020 Seshat Data Release

P. Turchin, J. Reddish, S. Holder, 2020, Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution.

An Introduction to Seshat

Patrick E. Savage, John D. Baines, Miriam T. Stark, 2019 .

Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization

John Baines, Kevin Feeney, David Baker, 2017, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Disentangling the evolutionary drivers of social complexity: A comprehensive test of hypotheses

James S. Bennett, S. Gavrilets, P. Turchin, 2022, Science advances.

Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies from the Neolithic to the Industrial Revolution

James S. Bennett, P. Turchin, G. Feinman, 2020, PloS one.

Reply to Tosh et al.: Quantitative analyses of cultural evolution require engagement with historical and archaeological research

Thomas E. Currie, Patrick E. Savage, John D. Baines, 2018, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The West and the Rest The Science of the Great Divergence

P. Turchin, 2013 .

Cultural Evolution in

Thomas E. Currie, Timothy A. Kohler, D. Helbing, 2010 .

A Systematic Assessment of “Axial Age” Proposals Using Global Comparative Historical Evidence

Thomas E. Currie, Patrick E. Savage, P. Turchin, 2018 .

A Theory for the Formation of Large Agrarian Empires

P. Turchin, 2008 .

The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade: A retrospective assessment

P. Turchin, A. Korotayev, Andrey Korotayev, 2020, PloS one.

P . Turchin * SOCIAL TIPPING POINTS AND TREND REVERSALS : A HISTORICAL APPROACH

P. Turchin, 2012 .

Coin hoards speak of population declines in Ancient Rome

P. Turchin, W. Scheidel, 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

4 The Puzzle of Human Ultrasociality How Did Large-Scale Complex Societies Evolve ?

P. Turchin, 2013 .

Comment on: Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States by Peter Turchin

P. Turchin, 2005 .

Cultural evolution of the structure of human groups

Fiona M. Jordan, P. Wiessner, H. Gintis, 2013 .

Religion and empire in the Axial Age

P. Turchin, 2012 .

of Theoretical and Mathematical History UC Riverside

P. Turchin, H. Whitehouse, Pieter François, 2013 .

A Historical Database of Sociocultural Evolution

Edward Slingerland, Pieter Francois, Harvey Whitehouse, 2012 .

8 Modeling periodic waves of integration in the Afro-Eurasian world-system

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2007 .

Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration *

Peter Turchin, Andrey Korotayev, P. Turchin, 2006 .

Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2005 .

THEORY An ecological illustration of dynamical interactions characterized by lags

P. Turchin, Andrey Korotayev, K. Page, 2003 .

Warfare and the Evolution of Social Complexity: A Multilevel-Selection Approach

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2010 .

Explaining the rise of moralizing religions: a test of competing hypotheses using the Seshat Databank

Patrick E. Savage, P. Turchin, M. Altaweel, 2019, Religion, Brain & Behavior.

An integrative approach to estimating productivity in past societies using Seshat: Global History Databank

Thomas E. Currie, P. Turchin, N. Edwards, 2019, The Holocene.

A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience

Stefan Thurner, Atle Midttun, Roger Griffin, 2018, Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution.

Linking “Micro” to “Macro” Models of State Breakdown to Improve Methods for Political Forecasting

S. Gavrilets, P. Turchin, J. Goldstone, 2017 .

II. CYCLICAL PROCESSES IN PRE-INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES 4 Cycling in the Complexity of Early Societies

Sergey Gavrilets, Peter Turchin, David G. Anderson, 2014 .

Cycling in the Complexity of Early Societies

Peter Turchin, Sergey Gavrilets, David G. Anderson, 2010 .

Evolution of complex hierarchical societies

Sergey Gavrilets, Peter Turchin, S. Gavrilets, 2009 .

Upward Sweeps in The Historical Evolution of World-Systems

C. Chase-Dunn, P. Turchin, E. Anderson, 2006 .

Agricultural productivity in past societies: Toward an empirically informed model for testing cultural evolutionary hypotheses

Thomas E. Currie, Pieter Francois, Harvey Whitehouse, 2015 .

A theory for formation of large empires*

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2009, Journal of Global History.

War and Peace and War: The Life Cycles of Imperial Nations

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2005 .

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Complex societies precede moralizing gods throughout world history

John Baines, Kevin Feeney, Thomas E. Currie, 2019, Nature.

POPULATION CYCLES IN THE PINE LOOPER MOTH: DYNAMICAL TESTS OF MECHANISTIC HYPOTHESES

Stephen P. Ellner, Bruce E. Kendall, Simon N. Wood, 2005 .

DYNAMICAL EFFECTS OF PLANT QUALITY AND PARASITISM ON POPULATION CYCLES OF LARCH BUDMOTH

B. Kendall, S. Ellner, Jérôme Casas, 2003 .

Quantifying Dispersal of Southern Pine Beetles with Mark-Recapture Experiments and a Diffusion Model.

P. Turchin, W. Thoeny, 1993, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

Translating Foraging Movements in Heterogeneous Environments into the Spatial Distribution of Foragers

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 1991 .

Grand challenges for the study of cultural evolution

D. Wilson, P. Richerson, P. Turchin, 2017, Nature Ecology &Evolution.

Tempo and Mode in Cultural Macroevolution

S. Gavrilets, P. Turchin, 2021, Evolutionary psychology : an international journal of evolutionary approaches to psychology and behavior.

Aggregation in Aphis Varians: An Effective Strategy for Reducing Predation Risk

P. Kareiva, Peter Turchin, P. Kareiva, 1989 .

Duration of agriculture and distance from the steppe predict the evolution of large-scale human societies in Afro-Eurasia

Thomas E. Currie, S. Gavrilets, P. Turchin, 2020, Humanities and Social Sciences Communications.

Testing the Big Gods hypothesis with global historical data: a review and “retake”

Patrick E. Savage, P. Turchin, H. Whitehouse, 2022, Religion, Brain & Behavior.

Retraction Note: Complex societies precede moralizing gods throughout world history

Thomas E. Currie, Patrick E. Savage, P. Turchin, 2021, Nature.

Dacura: A new solution to data harvesting and knowledge extraction for the historical sciences

Peter N. Peregrine, Rob Brennan, Thomas E. Currie, 2018 .

Seshat: The Global History Databank

Kevin Feeney, Peter N. Peregrine, Thomas E. Currie, 2015 .

Detecting cycles and delayed density dependence: a comment on Hunter & Price (1998 )

P. Turchin, A. Berryman, 2000 .

AVAILABILITY OF FOOD AND THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF ARVICOLINE RODENTS

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, G. O. Batzli, 2001 .

Mapping the Spread of Mounted Warfare

Thomas E. Currie, Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2017 .

This Work Is Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-non Commercial-no Derivative Works 3.0 License a Macroscope for Global History Seshat Global History Databank: a Methodological Overview

Kevin Feeney, Thomas E. Currie, Pieter Francois, 2022 .

TRANSLATING FORAGING MOVEMENTS IN HETEROGENEOUS

P. Turchin, 1991 .

Chaos in a Noisy World: New Methods and Evidence from Time-Series Analysis

Stephen P. Ellner, Peter Turchin, S. Ellner, 1995, The American Naturalist.

Rarity of density dependence or population regulation with lags?

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 1990, Nature.

AN EXPERIMENTAL TEST OF FRAGMENTATION AND LOSS OF HABITAT WITH ORYZAEPHILUS SURINAMENSIS

P. Turchin, J. Bancroft, 2003 .

Cultural evolution of religion

Fiona M. Jordan, Joseph A. Bulbulia, R. Gray, 2013 .

A Primer on Statistical Analysis of Dynamical Systems in Historical Social Sciences (with a Particular Emphasis on Secular Cycles)

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2005 .

Ecology: Evolution in population dynamics

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2003, Nature.

Identifying the density-dependent structure underlying ecological time series

Peter Turchin, Alan A. Berryman, P. Turchin, 2001 .

Historical Dynamics

P. Turchin, 2018 .

Dynamics of political instability in the United States, 1780–2010

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2012 .

INFERRING COLONIZATION PROCESSES FROM POPULATION DYNAMICS IN SPATIALLY STRUCTURED PREDATOR–PREY SYSTEMS

P. Hosseini, B. Kendall, S. Ellner, 2000 .

East-West Orientation of Historical Empires and Modern States

Thomas D. Hall, Peter Turchin, Jonathan M. Adams, 2006 .

Complex Population Dynamics

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2003 .

Effects of density and season on the population rate of change in the meadow vole

R. Ostfeld, P. Turchin, 1997 .

Evolution of cooperative strategies from first principles

Mikhail Burtsev, Peter Turchin, M. Burtsev, 2006, Nature.

An introduction to Seshat: Global History Databank

Patrick E. Savage, Miriam T. Stark, S. Thurner, 2019 .

Fitting Dynamic Regression Models to Seshat Data

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2018, Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution.

Crop Productivity Estimates for Past Societies in the World Sample-30 of Seshat: Global History Databank

Thomas E. Currie, P. Turchin, N. Edwards, 2019 .

Modelling Time-Series Data

Stephen P. Ellner, Peter Turchin, S. Ellner, 2000 .

Group Report: Millennial Perspectives on the Dynamic Interaction of Climate, People, and Resources

Carole L. Crumley, F. Hole, V. Scarborough, 2007 .

Explaining population booms and busts in Mid-Holocene Europe

Dániel Kondor, P. Turchin, D. Gronenborn, 2023, Scientific reports.

Arise 'cliodynamics'

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2008, Nature.

Spatial Synchrony Among and Within World-Systems: Insights From Theoretical Ecology

T. D. Hall, P. Turchin, 2003 .

DETECTION OF DELAYED DENSITY DEPENDENCE: COMMENT

P. Turchin, A. Berryman, 1997 .

Evolution of institutions and organizations

Thomas E. Currie, P. Richerson, J. Bednar, 2016 .

Reply to Thomas: Diffusion of military technologies is a plausible explanation for the evolution of social complexity, 1500 BCE–AD 1500

Thomas E. Currie, S. Gavrilets, P. Turchin, 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Big Gods and big science: further reflections on theory, data, and analysis

Patrick E. Savage, P. Turchin, M. Altaweel, 2022, Religion, Brain & Behavior.

Structural-demographic analysis of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) collapse in China

James S. Bennett, P. Turchin, D. Hoyer, 2023, PloS one.

Flattening the Curve: Learning the lessons of world history to mitigate societal crises

James S. Bennett, P. Turchin, J. Reddish, 2022 .

Multipath Forecasting: the Aftermath of the 2020 American Crisis

P. Turchin, 2021 .

Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability

P. Turchin, 2013 .

Toward Cliodynamics – an Analytical, Predictive Science of History - eScholarship

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2011 .

Reply to Beheim et al.: Reanalyses confirm robustness of original analyses

Thomas E. Currie, Patrick E. Savage, P. Turchin, 2019 .

Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall: Why States Rise and Fall

Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2004 .

A FOOT IN THE RIVER: WHY OUR LIVES CHANGE-AND THE LIMITS OF EVOLUTION By Felipe Fernandez-Armesto

M. Ridley, M. Lamb, P. Turchin, 2017 .

Religion and empire in the Axial Age

P. Turchin, Peter Turchin, 2012 .

COMPLEX DYNAMICS IN ECOLOGICAL TIME SERIES 1

Andrew D. Taylor, P. Turchin, 2007 .

Complex Dynamics in Ecological Time Series Author ( s ) :

Andrew D. Taylor, P. Turchin, 2007 .

BOOK REVIEW ESSAY: STRANGE PARALLELS: PATTERNS IN EURASIAN SOCIAL EVOLUTION

P. Turchin, 2015 .

Building the Seshat Ontology for a Global History Databank

Thomas E. Currie, Kevin Feeney, Pieter Francois, 2016, ESWC.

Response to commentaries 'The Role of Ritual in the Evolution of Social Complexity: Five predictions and a drum roll'

Harvey Whitehouse, Peter Turchin, P. Turchin, 2015 .

Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability

P. Turchin, 2013 .

Ecology: Evolution in population dynamics

P. Turchin, 2003, Nature.