S. Munch

发表

Where Should I Send It? Optimizing the Submission Decision Process

S. Salinas, S. Munch, 2015, PloS one.

Trophic control changes with season and nutrient loading in lakes

S. Munch, T. Rogers, E. Palkovacs, 2020, Ecology letters.

Nonlinear dynamics and noise in fisheries recruitment: A global meta-analysis

George Sugihara, Stephan B. Munch, Alfredo Giron-Nava, 2018, Fish and Fisheries.

Circumventing structural uncertainty: A Bayesian perspective on nonlinear forecasting for ecology

S. Munch, Valerie Poynor, Juan Lopez Arriaza, 2017 .

A Bayesian model for estimation and order selection in high order Markov chains

A. Kottas, S. Munch, M. Heiner, 2018 .

Regime shift indicators fail under noise levels commonly observed in ecological systems.

Charles T Perretti, S. Munch, 2012, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

A unified treatment of top-down and bottom-up control of reproduction in populations

M. Mangel, S. Munch, M. Snover, 2005 .

Avoiding a crisis of motivation for ocean management under global environmental change

L. Crowder, E. Fulton, J. Sanchirico, 2017, Global change biology.

Avoiding tipping points in the management of ecological systems: a non-parametric Bayesian approach

M. Mangel, S. Munch, C. Boettiger, 2013 .

A semiparametric Bayesian approach to estimating maximum reproductive rates at low population sizes.

S. Munch, M. Sugeno, 2013, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

Separating Intrinsic and Environmental Contributions to Growth and Their Population Consequences

M. Mangel, S. Munch, A. O. Shelton, 2013, The American Naturalist.

S. Munch, T. Rogers, 2019, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Type : Concepts & synthesis 1 Running title : Intrinsic predictability & forecasting 2 3 Title : The intrinsic predictability of 4 ecological time series and its 5 potential to guide forecasting 6 7

Tabi, U. Jacob, O. Petchey, 2018 .

Emprical dynamic programming: A step towards model-free ecosystem based management

M. Mangel, S. Munch, 2015 .

Combining a Bayesian nonparametric method with a hierarchical framework to estimate individual and temporal variation in growth

S. Munch, B. Letcher, D. Sigourney, 2012 .

The relationship between maternal phenotype and offspring quality: do older mothers really produce the best offspring?

S. Munch, R. Warner, S. Heppell, 2010, Ecology.

Determining Individual Variation in Growth and Its Implication for Life-History and Population Processes Using the Empirical Bayes Method

Marc Mangel, Simone Vincenzi, Hans J. Skaug, 2014, PLoS Comput. Biol..

Spatial delay-difference models for estimating spatiotemporal variation in juvenile production and population abundance

J. Ianelli, P. Spencer, J. Thorson, 2015 .

Fast behavioral feedbacks make ecosystems sensitive to pace and not just magnitude of anthropogenic environmental change

Andrew M. Hein, A. Hein, S. Munch, 2020, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Forecasting in the face of ecological complexity: Number and strength of species interactions determine forecast skill in ecological communities

Owen L. Petchey, O. Petchey, S. Munch, 2022, Ecology letters.

A Regression-Based Approach for Cool-Season Storm Surge Predictions along the New York–New Jersey Coast

B. Colle, S. Munch, N. Georgas, 2015 .

Are exploited fish populations stable?

Charles T Perretti, R. May, G. Sugihara, 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Leveraging spatial information to forecast nonlinear ecological dynamics

Marcella M. Gomez, S. Munch, Bethany Johnson, 2020, Methods in Ecology and Evolution.

RAPID GROWTH RESULTS IN INCREASED SUSCEPTIBILITY TO PREDATION IN MENIDIA MENIDIA

S. Munch, D. Conover, 2003, Evolution; international journal of organic evolution.

Chaos is not rare in natural ecosystems

S. Munch, T. Rogers, Bethany Johnson, 2021, Nature Ecology & Evolution.

Contrasting genomic shifts underlie parallel phenotypic evolution in response to fishing

S. Munch, S. Palumbi, N. Therkildsen, 2019, Science.

Sustained costs of growth and the trajectory of recovery

S. Munch, K. O. Perez, 2015 .

Darwinian fishery science: lessons from the Atlantic silverside (Menidia menidia)

S. Munch, M. Walsh, D. Conover, 2005 .

The global contribution of forage fish to marine fisheries and ecosystems

Marc Mangel, Stephan B. Munch, Daniel Pauly, 2014 .

Maternal diet and age alter direct and indirect relationships between life‐history traits across multiple generations

C. J. Swain, S. Munch, M. Walsh, 2018, Functional Ecology.

Recent developments in empirical dynamic modelling

G. Sugihara, S. Munch, T. Rogers, 2022, Methods in Ecology and Evolution.

Flexible modeling for stock-recruitment relationships using Bayesian nonparametric mixtures

Kassandra M. Fronczyk, A. Kottas, S. Munch, 2012, Environmental and Ecological Statistics.

Thermal legacies: transgenerational effects of temperature on growth in a vertebrate.

S. Salinas, S. Munch, 2012, Ecology letters.

Thermal reaction norms for growth vary among cohorts of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus)

S. Munch, T. Hurst, Kate A. Lavelle, 2012, Marine Biology.

Rethinking the Prevalence and Relevance of Chaos in Ecology

S. Munch, T. Rogers, C. Tsai, 2022, Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics.

Chemical signatures in the otoliths of a coastal marine fish, menidia menidia, from the northeastern united states: spatial and temporal differences

S. Munch, S. Thorrold, D. Conover, 2009 .

Reverse-engineering ecological theory from data

Andrew M. Hein, Stephan B Munch, Benjamin T Martin, 2018, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

Maladaptive changes in multiple traits caused by fishing: impediments to population recovery.

S. Munch, M. Walsh, D. Conover, 2006, Ecology letters.

Sustaining Fisheries Yields Over Evolutionary Time Scales

Stephan B. Munch, S. Munch, D. Conover, 2002, Science.

Structured priors for sparse probability vectors with application to model selection in Markov chains

Athanasios Kottas, Stephan B. Munch, Matthew Heiner, 2019, Stat. Comput..

Combining functional data with hierarchical Gaussian process models

Stephan Munch, Valerie Poynor, S. Munch, 2017, Environmental and Ecological Statistics.

Latitudinal variation in lifespan within species is explained by the metabolic theory of ecology

S. Salinas, S. Munch, 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Non-genetic inheritance and changing environments

M. Mangel, S. Salinas, S. Munch, 2013 .

Interaction network structure and spatial patterns influence invasiveness and invasibility in a stochastic model of plant communities

Stephan B. Munch, Nicole L. Kinlock, S. Munch, 2021, Oikos.

Spatial and temporal scales of adaptive divergence in marine fishes and the implications for conservation

S. Munch, D. Conover, L. Clarke, 2006 .

EXTREME SELECTION ON SIZE IN THE EARLY LIVES OF FISH

S. Munch, K. O. Perez, 2010, Evolution; international journal of organic evolution.

NONLINEAR GROWTH COST IN MENIDIA MENIDIA: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

S. Munch, D. Conover, 2004, Evolution; international journal of organic evolution.

Reversal of evolutionary downsizing caused by selective harvest of large fish

S. Munch, D. Conover, S. A. Arnott, 2009, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

A Life‐History Perspective on Short‐ and Long‐Term Consequences of Compensatory Growth

M. Mangel, S. Munch, 2005, The American Naturalist.

A function‐valued trait approach to estimating the genetic basis of size at age and its potential role in fisheries‐induced evolution

S. Munch, Jin Gao, 2019, Evolutionary applications.

Predicting life history parameters for all fishes worldwide.

Stephan B Munch, James T Thorson, J. Thorson, 2017, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

Maternal age, fecundity, egg quality, and recruitment: linking stock structure to recruitment using an age-structured Ricker model

M. Mangel, S. Munch, D. Keith, 2012 .

Predicting climate effects on Pacific sardine

George Sugihara, Alec D. MacCall, Les Kaufman, 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems

George Sugihara, Hao Ye, Stephan Munch, 2012, Science.

Separating Paternal and Maternal Contributions to Thermal Transgenerational Plasticity

S. Munch, Who-Seung Lee, Sarah L. Chang, 2021, Frontiers in Marine Science.

Does Reproductive Investment Decrease Telomere Length in Menidia menidia?

S. Munch, Jin Gao, 2015, PloS one.

Predator-induced phenotypic plasticity within- and across-generations: a challenge for theory?

S. Munch, M. Walsh, Frank L. Cooley, 2015, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

Spatial scale and divergent patterns of variation in adapted traits in the ocean.

S. Munch, D. Conover, T. Duffy, 2012, Ecology letters.

Applying empirical dynamic modeling to distinguish abiotic and biotic drivers of population fluctuations in sympatric fishes

S. Munch, T. Rogers, E. Palkovacs, 2022, Limnology and Oceanography.

High connectivity among locally adapted populations of a marine fish (Menidia menidia).

S. Munch, S. Thorrold, D. Conover, 2010, Ecology.

THEORY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

S. Munch, 2004 .

Tracking and forecasting ecosystem interactions in real time

George Sugihara, Ethan R Deyle, Stephan B Munch, 2016, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

Global evidence for non-random dynamics in fish recruitment

Charles T Perretti, G. Sugihara, M. Fogarty, 2015, 1509.01434.

Harvest selection, genetic correlations, and evolutionary changes in recruitment: one less thing to worry about?

S. Munch, M. Walsh, D. Conover, 2005 .

Ecosystem based multi-species management using Empirical Dynamic Programming

Antoine Brias, Stephan B. Munch, S. Munch, 2021 .

The intrinsic predictability of ecological time series and its potential to guide forecasting

Owen L. Petchey, Gian Marco Palamara, Hao Ye, 2018, bioRxiv.

Avoiding tipping points in fisheries management through Gaussian process dynamic programming

Carl Boettiger, Stephan Munch, Marc Mangel, 2014, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

Evaluation of mortality trajectories in evolutionary biodemography

M. Mangel, S. Munch, 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Predator-driven brain size evolution in natural populations of Trinidadian killifish (Rivulus hartii)

S. Munch, Shannon M. Beston, M. Walsh, 2016, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

Bayesian nonparametric analysis of stock- recruitment relationships

Marc Mangel, Athanasios Kottas, Stephan B. Munch, 2005 .

Nonparametric forecasting outperforms parametric methods for a simulated multispecies system

George Sugihara, Stephan B. Munch, Charles T. Perretti, 2013 .

Model-free forecasting outperforms the correct mechanistic model for simulated and experimental data

George Sugihara, Stephan B Munch, Charles T Perretti, 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Circularity in fisheries data weakens real world prediction

George Sugihara, Stephan B. Munch, Alfredo Giron-Nava, 2020, Scientific Reports.

Frequently asked questions about nonlinear dynamics and empirical dynamic modelling

George Sugihara, Antoine Brias, Stephan B. Munch, 2020 .

Environmental variability and fishing effects on the Pacific sardine fisheries in the Gulf of California

G. Sugihara, E. Deyle, S. Munch, 2021 .

Among-year variation in growth of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba based on length-frequency data

M. Mangel, S. Munch, A. O. Shelton, 2013 .

Prediction-based approach for quantifying phenological mismatch across landscapes under climate change

S. Munch, K. Zhu, Yiluan Song, 2023, Landscape Ecology.

A Bayesian approach to identifying mixtures from otolith chemistry data

S. Munch, L. Clarke, 2008 .

Intermittent instability is widespread in plankton communities.

S. Munch, T. Rogers, S. Matsuzaki, 2023, Ecology letters.

Ancestral genetic variation in phenotypic plasticity underlies rapid evolutionary changes in resurrected populations of waterfleas.

S. Munch, M. Walsh, J. Landy, 2020, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

Trait variation in extreme thermal environments under constant and fluctuating temperatures

S. Salinas, S. Munch, S. Irvine, 2019, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B.

Local adaptation in transgenerational responses to predators

David M Post, Stephan B Munch, D. Post, 2016, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

A Bayesian modeling approach for determining productivity regimes and their characteristics.

A. Kottas, S. Munch, 2009, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

Thermal transgenerational effects remain after two generations

M. Mangel, S. Salinas, S. Munch, 2020, Ecology and evolution.

QUANTIFYING NATURAL SELECTION ON BODY SIZE FROM FIELD DATA: WINTER MORTALITY IN MENIDIA MENIDIA

M. Mangel, S. Munch, D. Conover, 2003 .

Phenotypic complexity: integrated responses of life-history characters to multiple environmental factors

S. Salinas, S. Munch, 2014 .

Why do larger mothers produce larger offspring? A test of classic theory.

S. Munch, D. Marshall, K. Monro, 2016, Ecology.

Effects of daily thermal fluctuations on the Atlantic silverside, a fish with temperature-dependent sex determination.

S. Salinas, S. Munch, G. Sancho, 2023, Journal of fish biology.

Genetic and maternal variation in early growth in the Atlantic silverside Menidia menidia

S. Munch, Jin Gao, 2013 .

Measurement Error Affects Risk Estimates for Recruitment to the Hudson River Stock of Striped Bass

L. Ginzburg, S. Munch, D. Dunning, 2002, TheScientificWorldJournal.

An empirical dynamic modeling framework for missing or irregular samples

S. Munch, Bethany Johnson, 2022, Ecological Modelling.

A Bayesian approach to identifying and compensating for model misspecification in population models.

Kotaro Ono, Stephan B Munch, James T Thorson, 2014, Ecology.

Environmental regimes and density-dependence : a Bayesian modeling approach for identifying recruitment regimes

A. Kottas, M. Mangel, S. Munch, 2005 .

Circularity in fisheries data weakens real world prediction

Chase C. James, G. Sugihara, E. Deyle, 2020, Scientific Reports.

On estimating the reliability of ecological forecasts.

Stephan B Munch, Charles T Perretti, S. Munch, 2015, Journal of theoretical biology.

Recurrent Neural Networks for Partially Observed Dynamical Systems

S. Munch, Uttam Bhat, 2021, Physical review. E.

Comments on identifying causal relationships in nonlinear dynamical systems via empirical mode decomposition

C. Hsieh, S. Munch, Chun-Wei Chang, 2022, Nature Communications.

Understanding escalated aggression over food resources in white-faced capuchin monkeys

C. Janson, S. Munch, E. Vogel, 2007, Animal Behaviour.

A latitudinal gradient in thermal transgenerational plasticity and a test of theory

M. Mangel, S. Salinas, S. Munch, 2021, Proceedings of the Royal Society B.

Constraining nonlinear time series modeling with the metabolic theory of ecology

S. Munch, Frank Pennekamp, T. Rogers, 2023, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

Accounting for local physiological adaptation in bioenergetic models: testing hypotheses for growth rate evolution by virtual transplant experiments

S. Munch, D. Conover, 2002 .

Trait variation in extreme thermal environments under constant and fluctuating temperatures

S. Salinas, S. Munch, S. Irvine, 2019, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B.

A semiparametric Bayesian method for detecting Allee effects.

Masatoshi Sugeno, Stephan B Munch, S. Munch, 2013, Ecology.

Trade-offs between accuracy and interpretability in von Bertalanffy random-effects models of growth.

M. Mangel, S. Munch, A. Crivelli, 2016, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

Recruitment dynamics of bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod, 1973–1995

S. Munch, D. Conover, 2000 .

Predicting nonlinear dynamics of short-lived Penaeid shrimp species in the Gulf of Mexico

S. Munch, A. Pollack, C. Tsai, 2022, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences.

Reply to Hartig and Dormann: The true model myth

George Sugihara, Stephan B Munch, Charles T Perretti, 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Reply to Hartig et al. [arXiv:1305.3544]: The "true model" myth

Charles T Perretti, G. Sugihara, S. Munch, 2013, 1307.5747.

Estimating partial regulation in spatiotemporal models of community dynamics.

Stephan B Munch, James T Thorson, Douglas P Swain, 2017, Ecology.

The response of correlated traits following cessation of fishery-induced selection

S. Salinas, S. Munch, D. Conover, 2012, Evolutionary applications.