Paul K. Davis

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Baffle Design For Telescopes With Tiltable Secondary Mirrors

Paul K. Davis, 1987, Photonics West - Lasers and Applications in Science and Engineering.

Strategic Issues and Options for the Quadrennial Defense Review

Paul K. Davis, Richard L. Kugler, Richard Hillestad, 1998 .

Foresight for commanders: a methodology to assist planning for effects-based operations

Paul K. Davis, James P. Kahan, 2006, SPIE Defense + Commercial Sensing.

Metrics for the Quadrennial Defense Review's Operational Goals

Paul K. Davis, Elwyn Harris, Michael D. Miller, 2003 .

Modeling Decisionmaking of Potential Proliferators as Part of Developing Counterproliferation Strategies

Paul K. Davis, John Arquilla, 1994 .

Analytic Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning, Mission-System Analysis, and Transformation

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 2002 .

Measuring the Effectiveness of Border Security Between Ports-of-Entry

Paul K. Davis, Henry H. Willis, Joel B. Predd, 2010 .

A Portfolio-Analysis Tool for Missile Defense (PAT-MD): Methodology and User's Manual

Paul K. Davis, Paul Dreyer, P. Davis, 2005 .

Specifying the content of humble social-science models

Paul K. Davis, 2009 .

Experiments In Multiresolution Modeling (MRM)

Paul K. Davis, James H. Bigelow, P. Davis, 1998 .

Toward a conceptual framework for operational arms control in Europe's central region

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 1988 .

Hybrid fast Hankel transform implementation for optics simulation

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 2013, Optics & Photonics - Optical Engineering + Applications.

Using causal models in heterogeneous information fusion to detect terrorists

Paul K. Davis, Walter L. Perry, John S. Hollywood, 2015, 2015 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC).

Informing and calibrating a multiresolution exploratory analysis model with high resolution simulation: the interdiction problem as a case history

Paul K. Davis, Jimmie McEver, James H. Bigelow, 2000, 2000 Winter Simulation Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.00CH37165).

Adaptiveness in National Defense: The Basis of a New Framework

Paul K. Davis, Richard L. Kugler, David C. Gompert, 1996 .

Analysis, Analysis Practices, and Implications for Modeling and Simulation

Paul K. Davis, Amy Henninger, Amy E. Henninger, 2007 .

Defining the next generation of enabling technology for exploratory analysis and multiresolution modeling

Paul K. Davis, Jimmie McEver, 2001, SPIE Defense + Commercial Sensing.

Aggregation, Disaggregation, and the 3:1 Rule in Ground Combat

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 1996 .

Multiresolution multiperspective modeling (MRMPM) as an enabler of exploratory analysis

Paul K. Davis, 2000, Defense, Security, and Sensing.

Effects-Based Operations (EBO): A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 2006 .

New paradigms and new challenges [modeling and simulation]

Paul K. Davis, 2005, Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, 2005..

Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options

Paul K. Davis, Justin Beck, Russell D. Shaver, 2008 .

Optical Design For SOFIA

Paul K. Davis, Scott S. Maa, N. Rajan, 1988, Optics & Photonics.

Reflecting Warfighter Needs in Air Force Programs

Paul K. Davis, Duncan Long, Paul Dreyer, 2010 .

Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling

Angela O'Mahony, Paul K. Davis, Timothy Gulden, 2017 .

Improving the Composability of DoD Models and Simulations

Paul K. Davis, Robert H. Anderson, Robert H. Anderson, 2004 .

Implementing multiresolution models and families of models: from entity-level simulation to desktop stochastic models and "repro" models

Paul K. Davis, Jimmie McEver, James H. Bigelow, 2000, Defense, Security, and Sensing.

Ground Forces for a Rapidly Employable Joint Task Force: First-Week Capabilities for Short-Warning Conflicts

Paul K. Davis, John Matsumura, Randall Steeb, 2000 .

Mission-system planning: an application of multiresolution, multiperspective modeling, and exploratory analysis

Paul K. Davis, 2001, SPIE Defense + Commercial Sensing.

Variables Affecting Central-Region Stability: The 'Operational Minimum' and Other Issues at Low Force Levels

Paul K. Davis, Robert D. Howe, Richard L. Kugler, 1989 .

Transforming the Force

Paul K. Davis, David C. Gompert, Stuart E. Johnson, 1998 .

An Introduction to Variable-Resolution Modeling and Cross-Resolution Model Connection

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 1993 .

Toward a Comprehensive Environment for Computer Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis

Paul K. Davis, Robert H. Anderson, H. E. Hall, 1993 .

Improving Social-Behavioral Modeling

Angela O'Mahony, Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 2019, Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems.

An Analyst's Primer for the RAND/ABEL Trademark Programming Language

Paul K. Davis, 1990 .

Lessons from Defense Planning and Analysis for Thinking about Systems of Systems

Paul K. Davis, 2007 .

The Rand Strategy Assessment Center: An Overview and Interim Conclusions about Utility and Development Options.

Paul K. Davis, James A. Winnefeld, P. Davis, 1983 .

Main Theater Warfare Modeling in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (3.0)

Paul K. Davis, Bruce W. Bennett, Arthur M. Bullock, 1988 .

Resource Allocation for the New Defense Strategy The DynaRank Decision-Support System

Paul K. Davis, Richard Hillestad, R. Hillestad, 1998 .

Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems

Paul K. Davis, Jonathan Kulick, Michael Egner, 2005 .

Introduction to multiresolution modeling (MMR) with an example involving precision fires

Paul K. Davis, James H. Bigelow, P. Davis, 1998, Defense, Security, and Sensing.

Observations on new developments in composability and multi-resolution modeling

Paul K. Davis, Andreas Tolk, P. Davis, 2007, 2007 Winter Simulation Conference.

Representing Operational Strategies and Command-Control in the RAND strategy Assessment System (RSAS)

Paul K. Davis, Robert D. Howe, 1990 .

New Challenges for Defense Planning

Paul K. Davis, George L. Donohue, Richard L. Kugler, 1994 .

An Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Perspective on Social Simulation

Paul K. Davis, Osonde A. Osoba, P. Davis, 2018 .

Alternative aperture stop position designs for SIRTF

Paul K. Davis, Ann St. Clair Dinger, 1990, Optics & Photonics.

Distributed interactive simulation in the evolution of DoD warfare modeling and simulation

Paul K. Davis, 1995 .

Exploratory Analysis of The Halt Problem: A Briefing on Methods and Initial Insights

Paul K. Davis, Manual J. Carrillo, 1998 .

New Entrance Shade Design For SIRTF

Paul K. Davis, 1988, Optics & Photonics.

Exploratory analysis enabled by multiresolution, multiperspective modeling

Paul K. Davis, 2000, 2000 Winter Simulation Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.00CH37165).

Rethinking families of models and games for new circumstances

Paul K. Davis, 2004, SPIE Defense + Commercial Sensing.

Specification and Implementation of Social Science Models

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 2015 .

Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking

Paul K. Davis, James P. Kahan, J. Kahan, 2007 .

Strategic Planning Amidst Massive Uncertainty in Complex Adaptive Systems: the Case of Defense Planning

Paul K. Davis, 2006 .

Primer for building factor trees to represent social-science knowledge

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 2011, Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC).

A System Approach to Deterring and Influencing Terrorists

Paul K. Davis, Brian Michael Jenkins, P. Davis, 2004 .

A new methodology for modeling national command level decisionmaking in war games and simulations

Paul K. Davis, James P. Kahan, Steven C. Bankes, 1986 .

Prospects for composability of models and simulations

Paul K. Davis, Robert B. Anderson, 2004, SPIE Defense + Commercial Sensing.

The Role of Uncertainty in Assessing the NATO/Pact Central Region Balance

Paul K. Davis, 1988 .

Reflecting Warfighter Needs in Air Force Programs: Prototype Analysis

Paul K. Davis, Duncan Long, Richard Hillestad, 2010 .

SOFIA secondary mirror Hindle test analysis

Paul K. Davis, 2003, SPIE Astronomical Telescopes + Instrumentation.

Analytical Methods for Studies and Experiments on Transforming the Force

Paul K. Davis, James H. Bigelow, Jimmie McEver, 1999 .

Theory and methods for supporting high-level decision making

Paul K. Davis, James P. Kahan, 2006, SPIE Defense + Commercial Sensing.

Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Strategic-Level Gaming and Simulation

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 1988 .

Confronting Model Uncertainty

Paul K. Davis, Steven W. Popper, P. Davis, 2019 .

Modeling of Soft Factors in the Rand Strategy Assessment System (RSAS)

Paul K. Davis, 1989 .

Synthetic cognitive modeling of adversaries for effects-based planning

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 2002, SPIE Defense + Commercial Sensing.

Improving Strategic Planning at the Department of Defense

Paul K. Davis, Justin Beck, Russell D. Shaver, 2008 .

Lessons on Decision Aiding for Social-Behavioral Modeling

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 2019, Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems.

The Role of Automated War Gaming in Strategic Analysis

Paul K. Davis, Bruce W. Bennett, 1984 .

Paradigm-Level Issues in M&S: Historical Lessons and Current Challenges

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 2010 .

Causal Models and Exploratory Analysis in Heterogeneous Information Fusion for Detecting Potential Terrorists

Paul K. Davis, Walter L. Perry, John S. Hollywood, 2015 .

Simple Culture-Informed Cognitive Models of the Adversary

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 2018 .

Overview of System Software in the RAND Strategy Assessment System

Paul K. Davis, H. E. Hall, 1988 .

Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion: Assessing Threat with Soft, Uncertain, and Conflicting Evidence

Paul K. Davis, Walter L. Perry, John S. Hollywood, 2016 .

Automated War Gaming as a Technique for Exploring Strategic Command and Control Issues

Paul K. Davis, Bruce W. Bennett, Peter Stan, 1983 .

Variable-Resolution Combat Modeling: Motivations, Issues, and Principles

Paul K. Davis, Reiner K. Huber, P. Davis, 1992 .

The Base of Sand Problem

Paul K. Davis, Don Blumenthal, 1991 .

The Base of Sand Problem: A White Paper on the State of Military Combat Modeling

Paul K. Davis, Donald Blumenthal, 1991 .

Managing Strategic Surprise: Defense planning and risk management in the presence of deep uncertainty

Paul K. Davis, 2008 .

Improving the Military Content of Strategy Analysis Using Automated War Games: A Technical Approach and an Agenda for Research.

Paul K. Davis, Cindy Williams, 1982 .

Dealing with complexity: exploratory analysis enabled by multiresolultion, multiperspective modeling

Paul K. Davis, 2000, WSC '00.

Exploratory Analysis and a Case History of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling

Paul K. Davis, Jimmie McEver, James H. Bigelow, 2001 .

Variable-Resolution Combat Modeling

Paul K. Davis, Reiner K. Huber, 1992 .

Looming Discontinuities in U.S. Military Strategy and Defense Planning: Colliding RMAs Necessitate a New Strategy

Paul K. Davis, Peter A. Wilson, P. Davis, 2011 .

Thoughts on higher-level adversary modeling

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 2003, SPIE Defense + Commercial Sensing.

An introduction to variable-resolution modeling

Paul K. Davis, 1995 .

A qualitative multiresolution model for counterterrorism

Paul K. Davis, 2006, SPIE Defense + Commercial Sensing.

Families of models that cross levels of resolution: issues for design, calibration and management

Paul K. Davis, Richard Hillestad, 1993, WSC '93.

Panel Discussion: Moving Social-Behavioral Modeling Forward

Samarth Swarup, Angela O'Mahony, Paul K. Davis, 2019, Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems.

Developing improved metamodels by combining phenomenological reasoning with statistical methods

Paul K. Davis, James H. Bigelow, 2002, SPIE Defense + Commercial Sensing.

Families of Models that Cross Levels of Resolution: Issues for Design, Calibration and Management

Paul K. Davis, Richard Hillestad, 1993, Proceedings of 1993 Winter Simulation Conference - (WSC '93).

Advancing clinical decision support using lessons from outside of healthcare: an interdisciplinary systematic review

Paul K. Davis, Douglas S. Bell, Helen W. Wu, 2012, BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making.

Some Lessons Learned from Building Red Agents in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS)

Paul K. Davis, 1989 .

Military applications of simulation

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 2003 .

Improving the Composability of Department of Defense Models and Simulations

Paul K. Davis, Robert H. Anderson, Robert H. Anderson, 2004 .

Proceedings of Conference on Variable-Resolution Modeling, Washington, DC, 5-6 May 1992

Paul K. Davis, Richard Hillestad, 1993 .

RAND's Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT)

Paul K. Davis, Paul Dreyer, P. Davis, 2009 .

Formalization of Tradeoff Rules and Other Techniques for Comprehending Complex Rule-Based Models

Paul K. Davis, Steven C. Bankes, Robert Weissler, 1987 .

Developing a Risk Assessment Methodology for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jan Osburg, Paul K. Davis, Clifford A. Grammich, 2016 .

Generalizing Concepts and Methods of Verification, Validation, and Accreditation (VV&A) for Military Simulations,

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 1992 .

Towards methodological approaches to meet the challenges of human, social, cultural, and behavioral (HSCB) modeling

Paul K. Davis, Andreas Tolk, Gary L. Klein, 2010, Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference.

Defense planning for the post-Cold War era : giving meaning to flexibility, adaptiveness, and robustness of capability

Paul K. Davis, Lou Finch, P. Davis, 1993 .

Measuring Interdiction Capabilities in the Presence of Anti-Access Strategies: Exploratory Analysis to Inform Adaptive Strategy for the Persian Gulf

Paul K. Davis, Jimmie McEver, Barry Wilson, 2002 .

Effects of Terrain, Maneuver Tactics, and C4ISR on the Effectiveness of Long-Range Precision Fires

Paul K. Davis, Jimmie McEver, James H. Bigelow, 2000 .

Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling

Angela O'Mahony, Osonde Osoba, Paul K. Davis, 2018 .

Rand's Portfolio Analysis Tool (Pat): Theory, Methods, and Reference Manual

Paul K. Davis, Paul Dreyer, P. Davis, 2009 .

Special issue: Representing social science in national-security-related modeling and simulation

Angela O'Mahony, Paul K. Davis, 2017 .

New methodology for modeling National Command Level decision making in war games and simulations. Interim report

Paul K. Davis, James P. Kahan, Steven C. Bankes, 1986 .

Simulated Central Region Conflicts at Nominal Parity and Low Force Levels

Paul K. Davis, William G. Wild, Rogert D. Howe, 1989 .

Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation

Paul K. Davis, Steven C. Bankes, Michael Egner, 2007 .

Social Science for Counterterrorism

Christopher Paul, Paul K. Davis, Brian A. Jackson, 2009 .

Exploratory Analysis of "The Halt Problem"

Paul K. Davis, Manuel J. Carrillo, 1997 .

Deterrence and Stability for the Korean Peninsula

Paul K. Davis, Peter A. Wilson, P. Davis, 2016 .

Chapter Nine EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR MODELING

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 2003 .

Studying first-strike stability with knowledge-based models of human decision-making

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 1989 .

Developing Resource-Informed Strategic Assessments and Recommendations

Paul K. Davis, David C. Gompert, Duncan Long, 2008 .

Planning for Long-Term Security in Central Europe: Implications of the New Strategic Environment

Paul K. Davis, Robert D. Howe, 1990 .

Deterring or Coercing Opponents in Crisis: Lessons from the War With Saddam Hussein

Paul K. Davis, John Arquilla, 1991 .

Extended Deterrence, Compellence and the ''Old World Order''

Paul K. Davis, John Arquilla, 1992 .

Meta models to aid planning of intelligent machines

Paul K. Davis, James H. Bigelow, 2001 .

Toward Theory for Dissuasion ( or Deterrence ) by Denial : Using Simple Cognitive Models of the Adversary t o Inform Strategy

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 2014 .

Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism

Paul K. Davis, Eric V. Larson, Zachary Haldeman, 2012 .

Game-Structured Analysis as a Framework for Defense Planning

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 1988 .

The RAND Strategy Assessment Center

Paul K. Davis, James A. Winnefeld, 1983 .

Analysis to Inform Defense Planning Despite Austerity

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 2014 .

Analysis of Strategy and Strategies of Analysis

Paul K. Davis, David C. Gompert, Duncan Long, 2008 .

A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism: A Prototype for More-General Social-Science Modeling

Angela O'Mahony, Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 2013 .

Motivated Metamodels

Paul K. Davis, James H. Bigelow, 2002 .

Finding Candidate Options for Investment

Paul K. Davis, Justin Beck, Russell D. Shaver, 2008 .

Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together

Christopher Paul, Paul K. Davis, Brian A. Jackson, 2009 .

New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking

Paul K. Davis, James Hosek, Gregory F. Treverton, 2003 .

Challenges in Virtual Collaboration

Paul K. Davis, Lynne Wainfan, P. Davis, 2004 .

Lessons from RAND's Work on Planning Under Uncertainty for National Security

Paul K. Davis, P. Davis, 2012 .

Deterring or Coercing Opponents in Crisis

Paul K. Davis, John Arquilla, 1991 .

Analytic War Gaming with the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS)

Paul K. Davis, James P. Kahan, Steven C. Bankes, 1987 .

Dilemmas of Intervention: Social Science for Stabilization and Reconstruction

Paul K. Davis, Claude Berrebi, Elizabeth Wilke, 2011 .

Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism: A Component in the War on Al Qaeda

Paul K. Davis, Brian Michael Jenkins, P. Davis, 2002 .