J. Scott Armstrong

发表

Forecasting methods and principles: Evidence-based checklists

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong, 2018 .

Expert Systems for Forecasting

Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, Monica Adya, 2001 .

Replication Research in Marketing Revisited: A Note on a Disturbing Trend

J. Scott Armstrong, Heiner Evanschitzky, Carsten Baumgarth, 2008 .

Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Willie Soon, 2008, Interfaces.

Forecasting Principles

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Andreas Graefe, 2011, International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science.

The Ombudsman: Are Top Executives Paid Enough? An Evidence-Based Review

J. Scott Armstrong, Philippe Jacquart, J. Armstrong, 2013, Interfaces.

Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series Forecasting: Principles from Empirical Research

Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred L. Collopy, 2004 .

Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Andreas Graefe, 2007 .

Answers to Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) in Forecasting

J. Scott Armstrong, 2008 .

Validity of Climate Change Forecasting for Public Policy Decision Making

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Willie Soon, 2009 .

Principles of forecasting

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, F. Hillier, 2001 .

The Ombudsman: Business School Prestige—Research versus Teaching

J. Scott Armstrong, Tad Sperry, J. Armstrong, 1994 .

Research Report - Principles for Examining Predictive Validity: The Case of Information Systems Spending Forecasts

J. Scott Armstrong, Monica Adya, Fred L. Collopy, 1994, Inf. Syst. Res..

Tom Swift and His Electric Regression Analysis Machine: 1973

J. Scott Armstrong, J. S. Armstrong, 1975 .

Book Reviewed: Where the Suckers Moon: An Advertising Story, by Randall Rothenberg, New York: Alfred a. Knopf, 1994, 477 Pages. How Should Firms Select Advertising Agencies?

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 2005 .

The Ombudsman: Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project

J. Scott Armstrong, Ruth Pagell, J. Armstrong, 2003, Interfaces.

Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 2009 .

REVIEWS OF BOOKS ON FO RECASTING Principles of Forecasting Web Site

J. Scott Armstrong, Paul Slovic, Daniel Kahneman, 1984 .

Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations

Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred L. Collopy, 1992 .

Assessing Game Theory, Role Playing, and Unaided Judgment

J. Scott Armstrong, J. S. Armstrong, 2002 .

Analyzing Quantitative Models

J. Scott Armstrong, Alan C. Shapiro, J. Armstrong, 1974 .

An Application of Rule-Based Forecasting to a Situation Lacking Domain Knowledge

Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, Monica Adya, 2000 .

CONFORMANCE TO SCIENCE: A NEW APPROACH TO PEER REVIEW

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong, 2016 .

Automatic Identification of Time Series Features for Rule-Based Forecasting

Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, Monica Adya, 2001 .

Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods A chapter for the forthcoming book Strategic Marketing M.anagement: A Business Process Approach, edited by Luiz Moutinho and Geoff Southern.

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong, 2005 .

5 Executive Summaries Papers 8 Network Analysis in Marketing

Gillian Sullivan Mort, J. Scott Armstrong, Pamela D. Morrison, 2004 .

Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 1989 .

Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, M. E. English, 2001 .

Analyzing Quantitative Models

J. Scott Armstrong, Alan C. Shapiro, J. Armstrong, 1974 .

Sales Forecasts for Existing Consumer Products and Services: Do Purchase Intentions Contribute to Accuracy?

Vicki G. Morwitz, J. Scott Armstrong, V. Kumar, 2000 .

The Ombudsman: Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge?

J. Scott Armstrong, Malcolm Wright, J. Armstrong, 2008, Interfaces.

Structured Analogies for Forecasting

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong, 2007 .

Combining forecasts: An application to U.S. Presidential Elections

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, Alfred G. Cuzán, 2010 .

Expert Opinions About Extrapolation and the Mystery of the Overlooked Discontinuities

Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred L. Collopy, 1992 .

Predicting Elections from Biographical Information About Candidates: A Test of the Index Method

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, J. Armstrong, 2010 .

Conditions Under Which Index Models Are Useful

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, J. Armstrong, 2010 .

The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong, 2004, Interfaces.

Toward computer-aided forecasting systems: gathering, coding, and validating the knowledge

Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred L. Collopy, 2008 .

Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions?

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 2005 .

University of Pennsylvania Scholarlycommons Comparing Face-to-face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi and Prediction Markets on an Estimation Task Comparing Face-to-face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi and Prediction Markets on an Estimation Task Comparing Face-to-face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delph

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, J. Armstrong, 2022 .

Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation

Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, Monica Adya, 2001 .

Exploratory Analysis of Marketing Data: Trees vs. Regression

J. Scott Armstrong, James G. Andress, 1970 .

Readability and prestige in scientific journals

J. Scott Armstrong, 1989, J. Inf. Sci..

Business School Prestige - Research Versus Teaching

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, Tad Sperry, 2005 .

The Manager's Dilemma: Role Conflict in Marketing

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, R. Vaile, 2005 .

Intentional Changes: A Fresh Approach to Helping People Change

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 1983 .

Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, 2004 .

Review of Ravi Batra, The Great Depression of 1990

J. Scott Armstrong, 1988 .

Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, J. Armstrong, 2009 .

Publication Bias against Null Results

J. Scott Armstrong, Raymond Hubbard, J. Armstrong, 1997 .

How Should Firms Select Advertising Agencies

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 2011 .

The Value of Formal Planning for Strategic Decisions: A Reply

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 1986 .

Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit

J. Scott Armstrong, Roderick J. Brodie, Andrew G. Parsons, 2005 .

Research on Forecasting for the Manmade Global Warming Alarm

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Willie Soon, 2011 .

International journal of public administration: Lance Eliot Brouthers, parties, ideology and elections: The politics of federal revenues and expenditures forecasting, 8 (1986) 289-314

J. Scott Armstrong, Lance Eliot Brouthers, J. Armstrong, 1988 .

Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series: P. Goodwin and G. Wright, 1994, Omega, 22, 553–568

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 1996 .

Combining Forecasts for U.S. Presidential Elections: The Pollyvote

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, Alfred G. Cuzán, 2009 .

Portfolio Planning Methods: Faulty Approach or Faulty Research? A Rejoinder to 'Making Better Decisions' by Wensley

J. Scott Armstrong, Roderick J. Brodie, J. Armstrong, 2005 .

University of Pennsylvania Scholarlycommons the Ombudsman: Management Folklore and Management Science: on Portfolio Planning, Escalation Bias and Such the Ombudsman: Management Folklore and Management Science: on Portfolio Planning, Escalation Bias and Such Management Folklore and Management Science

J. Scott Armstrong, William T. Ross, H. Arkes, 2022 .

Advocacy as a Scientific Strategy: The Mitroff Myth

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 1980 .

Cheating in Management Science

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 2005 .

Research with In-built replications: Comment and further suggestions for replication research

J. Scott Armstrong, Heiner Evanschitzky, J. Armstrong, 2013 .

Demand Forecasting II : Evidence-Based Methods and Checklists

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, J. Armstrong, 2017 .

Strategic Planning Improves Manufacturing Performance

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 1991 .

Rule-Based Forecasting: Using domain knowledge in time series extrapolation

Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, Monica Adya, 2001 .

Social Irresponsibility in Management

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 1977 .

Escalation bias: Does it extend to marketing?

J. Scott Armstrong, Nicole Coviello, J. Armstrong, 1993 .

Generalization and Communication Issues in the Use of Error Measures: A Reply

Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 1992 .

Predicting Elections from the Most Important Issue: A Test of the Take-the-Best Heuristic

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, J. Armstrong, 2011 .

Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 2005 .

Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, 2009 .

Communication of Research on Forecasting: The Journal

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 1988 .

Strategies for Implementing Change: An Experiential Approach

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 1982 .

Combining forecasts: An Application to Election Forecasts

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, Alfred G. Cuzán, 2011 .

Improving Current Sales Estimates with Econometric Models

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, Thomas H. Tessier, 1977 .

A Note on the Use of Markov Chains in Forecasting Store Choice

J. Scott Armstrong, John U. Farley, J. Farley, 1969 .

An Application of Econometric Models to International Marketing

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 1970 .

Unintelligible Management Research and Academic Prestige

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, Scott Armstrong, 1980 .

Management science: D. Bunn and G. Wright, “Interaction of Judgmental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues and Analysis”, 37 (1991) 501–518

Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 1992 .

Replications of Forecasting Research

J. Scott Armstrong, Heiner Evanschitzky, J. Armstrong, 2009 .

Are null results becoming an endangered species in marketing?

J. Scott Armstrong, Raymond Hubbard, Gilbert A. Churchill, 1992 .

A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts

J. Scott Armstrong, Robert S. Erikson, Christopher Wlezien, 2017, PS: Political Science & Politics.

DIFFUSION OF FORECASTING PRINCIPLES : AN ASSESSMENT OF FORECASTING SOFTWARE PROGRAMS

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 2003 .

Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, J. Armstrong, 2012 .

Using Quasi-Experimental Data To Develop Empirical Generalizations For Persuasive Advertising

J. Scott Armstrong, Sandeep Patnaik, 2009, Journal of Advertising Research.

Decomposition of time-series by level and change

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, Thomas H. Tessier, 2015 .

Judgmental Decomposition: When Does it Work?

J. Scott Armstrong, Donald G. MacGregor, J. Armstrong, 1994 .

Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases, Kahneman, Daniel, Slovic, Paul and Tversky, Amos (eds), New York and Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982. Price: £25/45 (Hardback), £9.95/$15 (Paperback). Pages: 555

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 1984 .

Don A. Dillman, Mail and Telephone Surveys, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1978

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 1981 .

Replication research's disturbing trend

J. Scott Armstrong, Heiner Evanschitzky, Raymond Hubbard, 2007 .

Why We Don't Really Know What Statistical Significance Means: Implications for Educators

J. Scott Armstrong, Raymond Hubbard, J. Armstrong, 2006 .

Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals Through Causal Forces

Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred L. Collopy, 2001 .

Standards and Practices for Forecasting

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, J. Armstrong, 2001 .

How to Make Better Forecasts and Decisions: Avoid Face-to-Face Meetings

J. Scott Armstrong, J. Armstrong, N. Maier, 2007 .