Statistical forecasting for inventory control

This book explains how to design an economical, efficient inventory-control system through better routine short-range forecasting, with suggestions for adapting the system to your specific needs. Practical methods based on sound mathematical theory are given for computing the average rate of demand and the maximum reasonable demand during a lead time. Moving averages, exponential smoothing, and averages with optimum weights are developed and described in detail, including the adaptation to secular trends, to abrupt changes in the market, and to seasonal patterns. The author clearly shows how the concept of the Z-transform can be applied to the analysis and solution of inventory control problems. Techniques for measuring the uncertainty in a forecast are explained as a guide to the necessary and sufficient allowance for protective inventories. Direct measurements of the average and of the uncertainty are combined into effective ordering rules. The beginning of each chapter develops the concepts in non-technical terms that can be readily understood by readers in management. The main part of the book presents the methods with a minimum of mathematics, but in sufficient detail to be useful to industrial engineers. The appendixes give rigorous mathematical developments. Included in the appendixes is material on how to develop a simulation of a system to evaluate it, an analytical technique for studying the response of the system, and statistical methods for estimating in advance the impact of any control system on total costs, total inventories, and total service. xmlui.dri2xhtml.METS1.0.item-descriptionmiscellaneous 233 p., fig., ref. bib. : 6 p.3/4 URI http://hdl.handle.net/2042/28540 Date 1959 Identifiant P402 This item appears in the following Collection(s) 1. Prospective Show full item record Search all I-Revues This Collection