STUDY ON ROCK BURST FORECAST WITH FORECAST METHOD BASED ON CHAOTIC TIME SERIES

The forecast study on rock burst is carried out by monitoring some indices which are sensitive to the developing process of rock burst.The values and changing rules of the monitoring indices are the foundations to forecast rock burst;and the changing rules of peak values and trend in future of monitoring data have important meaning to the monitoring process.The forecast model considers that the monitoring series of rock burst is evoked by random factors;and the theory of random processes is used to simulate the movement rules of the system.The developing process of rock burst has its own rules and characteristics.The monitoring series is the exterior behavior of the systematic variables in the course of the development of rock burst;and the theory of random processes isn′t adapt to forecasting the time series of rock burst.Based on the reconstruction of phase space of monitoring seriest,he monitoring data of electromagnetic emission on working face of rock burst are forecasted by the methods of one-order approximation and Lyapunov exponent.The results are compared with ones gained by mathematical statistics method and show that the prediction methods based on chaotic theory have higher forecast precision.