Adoption of Powertrain Technologies in Automobiles—A System Dynamics Model of Technology Diffusion in the American Market

The American automobile industry is facing substantial environmental and energy challenges driving the pursuit of alternative powertrain technologies—“The intervening mechanism by which power is transmitted from an engine to a propeller or axle that it drives,” which nominally includes engine, transmission, drive shafts, differentials, and the final drive. Emerging alternative fuel vehicles are showing their potential to address these challenges. However, diffusion of new technologies has many complications. This paper uses system dynamics modeling to investigate the impacts of individual and organizational parameters. This model embeds two traditional modeling methods for technology adoption, the Bass diffusion model and multinomial logit regression method. Five types of powertrain systems and three major stakeholders are considered. Mathematical relationships among different variables are elaborated. The qualitative impacts of government feebate, manufacturer willingness, and consumer purchasing preferences on economic and environmental issues are addressed using scenario analysis.

[1]  Eric A. Morris,et al.  From Horse Power to Horsepower , 2007 .

[2]  Frank S. Koppelman,et al.  CLOSED-FORM DISCRETE-CHOICE MODELS* , 2007 .

[3]  Marc Melaina,et al.  California Statewide Plug-In Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Assessment , 2014 .

[4]  P. Geroski.  Models of technology diffusion , 2000 .

[5]  Gary B. Wilcox,et al.  Alcoholic Beverage Advertising and Consumption in the United States, 1964–1984 , 1987 .

[6]  V. Herzog.  Vehicle Retirement and Replacement: Charge Ahead California Initiative (SB 1275) , 2015 .

[7]  J. Sterman,et al.  Transition challenges for alternative fuel vehicle and transportation systems , 2006 .

[8]  Choi Kang-Hwa,et al.  A Dynamic Analysis of Technological Innovation Using System Dynamics , 2006 .

[9]  Anant D Vyas,et al.  Comparison of indirect cost multipliers for vehicle manufacturing , 2000 .

[10]  EPA Staff Technical Report : Cost and Effectiveness Estimates of Technologies Used to Reduce Light-duty Vehicle Carbon Dioxide Emissions , 2008 .

[11]  Kevin Green,et al.  Corporate Average Fuel Economy Compliance and Effects Modeling System Documentation , 2009 .

[12]  Stacy Cagle Davis,et al.  Transportation energy data book , 2008 .

[13]  Advertising effects in complete demand systems , 1992 .

[14]  Jeroen Struben,et al.  Essays on transition challenges for alternative propulsion vehicles and transportation systems , 2006 .

[15]  Stacy Cagle Davis,et al.  2012 Vehicle Technologies Market Report , 2013 .

[16]  Jeroen Struben,et al.  Identifying Challenges for Sustained Adoption of Alternative Fuel Vehicles and Infrastructure , 2006 .

[17]  E. Rogers,et al.  Diffusion of innovations , 1964, Encyclopedia of Sport Management.

[18]  M. Atilla Öner,et al.  Timely Resource Allocation Between R&D And Marketing: A System Dynamics View , 2012 .

[19]  V. Mahajan,et al.  Innovation diffusion and new product growth models: A critical review and research directions , 2010 .

[20]  Sara S. Metcalf,et al.  A system dynamics exploration of future automotive propulsion regimes , 2001 .

[21]  Don Charlett,et al.  New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: An Assessment of Two Approaches , 1995 .

[22]  Abebayehu Tegene,et al.  Kalman filter and the demand for cigarettes , 1991 .

[23]  Vijay Mahajan,et al.  Chapter 8 New-product diffusion models , 1993, Marketing.

[24]  T. BenDor.  The System Dynamics of U.S. Automobile Fuel Economy , 2012 .

[25]  J. Rizzo,et al.  Advertising and Competition in the Ethical Pharmaceutical Industry: The Case of Antihypertensive Drugs* , 1999, The Journal of Law and Economics.