An Out-of-Sample Analysis of Investment Guarantees for Equity-Linked Products

Abstract In this paper we analyze the risk underlying investment guarantees using 78 different econometric models: GARCH, regime-switching, mixtures, and combinations of these approaches. This extensive set of models is compared with returns observed during the financial crisis in an out-of-sample analysis, bringing a new perspective to the study of equity-linked insurance. We find that despite the very good fit of recent models, too few of them are capable of consistently generating low returns over long periods, which were in fact observed empirically during the financial crisis. Moreover, tail risk measures vary significantly across models, and this emphasizes the importance of model risk. Most insurance companies are now focusing on dynamically hedging their investment guarantees, and so we also investigate the robustness of the Black-Scholes delta hedging strategy. We find that hedging errors can be very large among the top fitting models, implying that model risk must be taken into consideration when hedging investment guarantees.

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