Additive normal tempered stable processes for equity derivatives and power-law scaling

We introduce a simple model for equity index derivatives. The model generalizes well known L\`evy Normal Tempered Stable processes (e.g. NIG and VG) with time dependent parameters. It accurately fits Equity index implied volatility surfaces in the whole time range of quoted instruments, including small time horizon (few days) and long time horizon options (years). We prove that the model is an Additive process that is constructed using an Additive subordinator. This allows us to use classical L\`evy-type pricing techniques. We discuss the calibration issues in detail and we show that, in terms of mean squared error, calibration is on average two orders of magnitude better than both L\`evy processes and Self-similar alternatives. We show that even if the model loses the classical stationarity property of L\`evy processes, it presents interesting scaling properties for the calibrated parameters.

[1]  Milton Abramowitz,et al.  Handbook of Mathematical Functions with Formulas, Graphs, and Mathematical Tables , 1964 .

[2]  Jing Li,et al.  Additive subordination and its applications in finance , 2015, Finance Stochastics.

[3]  John R. Taylor Introduction to Error Analysis, the Study of Uncertainties in Physical Measurements, 2nd Edition , 1997 .

[4]  L. Ballotta,et al.  Smiles & Smirks: A Tale of Factors , 2017 .

[5]  Marc Yor,et al.  SELF‐DECOMPOSABILITY AND OPTION PRICING , 2007 .

[6]  N. Nomikos,et al.  Freight Options: Price Modelling and Empirical Analysis , 2013 .

[7]  Alan L. Lewis A Simple Option Formula for General Jump-Diffusion and Other Exponential Levy Processes , 2001 .

[8]  F. Benth,et al.  Quantitative energy finance , 2014 .

[9]  Sato processes and the valuation of structured products , 2009 .

[10]  Fred Espen Benth,et al.  Quantitative energy finance : modeling, pricing, and hedging in energy and commodity markets , 2014 .

[11]  Ken-iti Sato,et al.  Self-similar processes with independent increments , 1991 .

[12]  A. Cerný,et al.  An improved convolution algorithm for discretely sampled Asian options , 2011 .

[13]  The Risk Premium and the Esscher Transform in Power Markets , 2012 .

[14]  Akihiko Takahashi,et al.  Pricing Average Options on Commodities , 2011 .

[15]  Thomas J. George,et al.  Estimation of the Bid-Ask Spread and Its Components: A New Approach , 1991 .

[16]  R. Roll,et al.  A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market , 2008 .

[17]  Jim Gatheral The Volatility Surface: A Practitioner's Guide , 2006 .

[18]  A. Meucci,et al.  Pricing discretely monitored Asian options under Levy processes , 2008 .

[19]  Gigi Model: A Simple Stochastic Volatility Approach for Multifactor Interest Rates , 2007 .

[20]  W. Schoutens Lévy Processes in Finance , 2003 .

[21]  Panos K. Pouliasis,et al.  Jumps and stochastic volatility in crude oil prices and advances in average option pricing , 2016 .

[22]  P. Carr,et al.  The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing , 1998 .

[23]  D. Owen Handbook of Mathematical Functions with Formulas , 1965 .

[24]  Gianluca Fusai,et al.  General Optimized Lower and Upper Bounds for Discrete and Continuous Arithmetic Asian Options , 2016, Math. Oper. Res..

[25]  O. Barndorff-Nielsen Normal Inverse Gaussian Distributions and Stochastic Volatility Modelling , 1997 .

[26]  E. R. Cohen An Introduction to Error Analysis: The Study of Uncertainties in Physical Measurements , 1998 .

[27]  E. Seneta,et al.  The Variance Gamma (V.G.) Model for Share Market Returns , 1990 .

[28]  Mark D. Semon,et al.  POSTUSE REVIEW: An Introduction to Error Analysis: The Study of Uncertainties in Physical Measurements , 1982 .

[29]  Derek York,et al.  Least squares fitting of a straight line with correlated errors , 1968 .

[30]  G. Seber,et al.  Nonlinear Regression: Seber/Nonlinear Regression , 2005 .

[31]  Chayawat Ornthanalai,et al.  Lévy Jump Risk: Evidence from Options and Returns , 2013 .

[32]  Thomas P. Ryan,et al.  Modern Regression Methods , 1996 .

[33]  Marcel Prokopczuk Pricing and Hedging in the Freight Futures Market , 2010 .

[34]  Dilip B. Madan,et al.  Option Pricing Using Variance Gamma Markov Chains , 2002 .

[35]  Vadim Linetsky,et al.  TIME‐CHANGED ORNSTEIN–UHLENBECK PROCESSES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS IN COMMODITY DERIVATIVE MODELS , 2012, 1204.3679.

[36]  M. Petersen,et al.  Posted versus effective spreads: Good prices or bad quotes? , 1994 .

[37]  R. Cont,et al.  Financial Modelling with Jump Processes , 2003 .

[38]  P. Carr,et al.  Option valuation using the fast Fourier transform , 1999 .