Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Water Quantity and Quality in an Urban Watershed Using a Calibrated Stormwater Model

Assessing climate change (CC) impacts on urban watersheds is difficult due to differences in model spatial and temporal scales, making prediction of hydrologic restoration a challenge. A methodology was developed using an autocalibration tool to calibrate a previously developed Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) of Difficult Run in Fairfax, Virginia. Calibration was assisted by use of multi-objective optimization. Results showed a good agreement between simulated and observed data. Simulations of CC for the 2041–2068 period were developed using dynamically downscaled North American Regional CC Assessment Program models. Washoff loads were used to simulate water quality, and a method was developed to estimate treatment performed in stormwater control measures (SCMs) to assess water quality impacts from CC. CC simulations indicated that annual runoff volume would increase by 6.5%, while total suspended solids, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus would increase by 7.6%, 7.1%, and 8.1%, respectively. The simulations also indicated that within season variability would increase by a larger percentage. Treatment practices (e.g., bioswale) that were intended to mitigate the negative effects of urban development will need to deal with additional runoff volumes and nutrient loads from CC to achieve the required water quality goals.

[1]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Climatic trends in major U.S. urban areas, 1950–2009 , 2011 .

[2]  Derek B. Booth,et al.  Sediment sources in an urbanizing, mixed land-use watershed , 2002 .

[3]  J. Arnold,et al.  VALIDATION OF THE SWAT MODEL ON A LARGE RWER BASIN WITH POINT AND NONPOINT SOURCES 1 , 2001 .

[4]  J. Nash,et al.  River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆ , 1970 .

[5]  M. Kemp,et al.  Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay , 2008 .

[6]  Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf,et al.  Integrating flood hazard into site selection of detention basins using spatial multi-criteria decision-making , 2016 .

[7]  Kathleen Segerson,et al.  Clean Coastal Waters - Understanding and Reducing the Effects of Nutrient Pollution , 2000 .

[8]  Michael K. Stenstrom,et al.  Automatic Calibration of the U.S. EPA SWMM Model for a Large Urban Catchment , 2008 .

[9]  A. H. Elliott,et al.  A review of models for low impact urban stormwater drainage , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..

[10]  Kenneth T. Belt,et al.  The urban watershed continuum: evolving spatial and temporal dimensions , 2012, Urban Ecosystems.

[11]  Paul Chinowsky,et al.  Estimated effects of climate change on flood vulnerability of U.S. bridges , 2012, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.

[12]  A. Semadeni-Davies,et al.  The impacts of climate change and urbanisation on drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden: Combined sewer system , 2008 .

[13]  Soroosh Sorooshian,et al.  Status of Automatic Calibration for Hydrologic Models: Comparison with Multilevel Expert Calibration , 1999 .

[14]  Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf,et al.  Investigation of the Impact of Streamflow Temporal Variation on Dam Overtopping Risk: Case Study of a High-Hazard Dam , 2015 .

[15]  Jinhong Zhu,et al.  Regional climate change projections for the Northeast USA , 2008 .

[16]  M. Karamouz,et al.  Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on Urban Storm Water Runoff Using Statistically Downscaled Precipitation Data and a Change Factor Approach , 2015 .

[17]  K. Mo,et al.  Continental-scale water and energy flux analysis and validation for the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 (NLDAS-2): 1. Intercomparison and application of model products , 2012 .

[18]  A. Drake.  Geologic map of the Fairfax quadrangle, Fairfax County, Virginia , 1986 .

[19]  N. Alamdari,et al.  Development of a Robust Automated Tool for Calibrating a SWMM Watershed Model , 2016 .

[20]  Lukas Gudmundsson,et al.  Technical Note: Downscaling RCM precipitation to the station scale using statistical transformations – a comparison of methods , 2012 .

[21]  S. Shapiro,et al.  An Analysis of Variance Test for Normality (Complete Samples) , 1965 .

[22]  M. Alber,et al.  Temperature controls a latitudinal gradient in the proportion of watershed nitrogen exported to coastal ecosystems , 2007 .

[23]  Shie-Yui Liong,et al.  Use of RORB and SWMM models to an urban catchment in Singapore , 1987 .

[24]  M. Scully,et al.  The Importance of Climate Variability to Wind-Driven Modulation of Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay , 2010 .

[25]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Hydrologic Implications of Dynamical and Statistical Approaches to Downscaling Climate Model Outputs , 2004 .

[26]  F. Brissette,et al.  Finding appropriate bias correction methods in downscaling precipitation for hydrologic impact studies over North America , 2013 .

[27]  Simon Dadson,et al.  Bias correction of daily precipitation simulated by a regional climate model: a comparison of methods , 2013 .

[28]  Tim D Fletcher,et al.  The Influence of Urban Density and Drainage Infrastructure on the Concentrations and Loads of Pollutants in Small Streams , 2004, Environmental management.

[29]  W. Boynton,et al.  Role of Late Winter–Spring Wind Influencing Summer Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay , 2013, Estuaries and Coasts.

[30]  D. Sample,et al.  Review and Research Needs of Bioretention Used for the Treatment of Urban Stormwater , 2014 .

[31]  Hayley J. Fowler,et al.  Beyond the downscaling comparison study , 2007 .

[32]  Daeryong Park,et al.  Evaluation of pollutant loads from stormwater BMPs to receiving water using load frequency curves with uncertainty analysis. , 2012, Water research.

[33]  W. Hunt,et al.  Bioretention function under climate change scenarios in North Carolina, USA , 2014 .

[34]  M. Karamouz,et al.  Low-impact development practices to mitigate climate change effects on urban stormwater runoff: Case study of New York City , 2015 .

[35]  J. Suárez,et al.  Stormwater quality calibration by SWMM : a case study in Northern Spain , 2007 .

[36]  Jeffrey G. Arnold,et al.  HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION ON AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS: CHOOSING BETWEEN TWO MODELS , 2003 .

[37]  Budhendra L. Bhaduri,et al.  Long-Term Hydrologic Impact of Urbanization: A Tale of Two Models , 2001 .

[38]  John D. Jastram.  Streamflow, water quality, and aquatic macroinvertebrates of selected streams in Fairfax County, Virginia, 2007-12 , 2014 .

[39]  Glenn E. Moglen,et al.  Climate Change and Storm Water Infrastructure in the Mid-Atlantic Region: Design Mismatch Coming? , 2014 .

[40]  R Core Team,et al.  R: A language and environment for statistical computing. , 2014 .

[41]  Richard G. Jones,et al.  A Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for North America , 2009 .

[42]  Tammo S. Steenhuis,et al.  SWATmodel: A Multi‐Operating System, Multi‐Platform SWAT Model Package in R , 2014 .

[43]  J. J. Warwick,et al.  Efficacy of SWMM Application , 1991 .

[44]  J. Seibert,et al.  Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: Review and evaluation of different methods , 2012 .

[45]  Dennis P. Lettenmaier,et al.  Precipitation extremes and the impacts of climate change on stormwater infrastructure in Washington State , 2010 .

[46]  Jeffrey G. Arnold,et al.  Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations , 2007 .

[47]  Lin Wang,et al.  Equiratio cumulative distribution function matching as an improvement to the equidistant approach in bias correction of precipitation , 2014 .

[48]  Slobodan P. Simonovic,et al.  Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves Under Climate Change: City of London, Ontario, Canada , 2012 .

[49]  P. Gagnon,et al.  Performance Analysis of a Wet-Retention Pond in a Small Agricultural Catchment , 2016 .

[50]  J. Schoof.  Scale Issues in the Development of Future Precipitation Scenarios , 2012 .

[51]  Christopher Zoppou,et al.  Review of urban storm water models , 2001, Environ. Model. Softw..

[52]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Water budget record from variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model , 2010 .

[53]  T. Engrg,et al.  Army Corps of Engineers , 2020, Federal Regulatory Guide.

[54]  Keith A. Labay,et al.  Preliminary integrated geologic map databases for the United States : Kentucky, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia , 2005 .

[55]  C. Campbell,et al.  Simulating time-varying cave flow and water levels using the Storm Water Management Model , 2002 .