Selecting Variables for Habitat Suitability of Asellus (Crustacea, Isopoda) by Applying Input Variable Contribution Methods to Artificial Neural Network Models

This study aimed to compare different methods to analyse the contribution of individual river characteristics to predict the abundance of Asellus (Crustacea, Isopoda). Six methods which provide the relative contribution and/or the contribution profile of the input variables of artificial neural network models were therefore compared: (1) the ‘partial derivatives’ method; (2) the ‘weights’ method; (3) the ‘perturb’ method; (4) the ‘profile’ method; (5) the ‘classical stepwise’ method; (6) the ‘improved stepwise’ method. Consequently, the key variables which affect the habitat preferences of Asellus could be identified. To evaluate the performance of the artificial neural network model, the model predictions were compared with the results of a multiple linear regression analysis. The dataset consisted of 179 samples, collected over a 3-year period in the Zwalm catchment in Flanders, Belgium. Twenty-four environmental variables as well as the log-transformed abundance of Asellus were used in this study. The different contribution methods seemed to give similar results concerning the order of importance of the input variables. Nevertheless, their diverse computation led to differences in sensitivity and stability of the methods and the derived outcomes on the habitat preferences. From an ecological point of view, the environmental variables describing the stream type (width, depth, stream order and distance to mouth) were the most significant variables for Asellus in the Zwalm catchment during the period 2000–2002 for all applied methods. Indirectly, one can conclude that the water quality is not the limiting factor for the survival of Asellus in the Zwalm catchment.

[1]  Peter Goethals,et al.  DEVELOPMENT OF A CONCEPT FOR INTEGRATED ECOLOGICAL RIVER ASSESSMENT IN FLANDERS, BELGIUM , 2001 .

[2]  Peter Goethals,et al.  Fuzzy knowledge-based models for prediction of Asellus and Gammarus in watercourses in Flanders (Belgium) , 2006 .

[3]  M. Araújo,et al.  Consequences of spatial autocorrelation for niche‐based models , 2006 .

[4]  T. Reynoldson,et al.  The Reference Condition: A Comparison of Multimetric and Multivariate Approaches to Assess Water-Quality Impairment Using Benthic Macroinvertebrates , 1997, Journal of the North American Benthological Society.

[5]  Niels De Pauw,et al.  Comparison of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model Development Methods for Prediction of Macroinvertebrate Communities in the Zwalm River Basin in Flanders, Belgium , 2002, TheScientificWorldJournal.

[6]  N De Pauw,et al.  River restoration simulations by ecosystem models predicting aquatic macroinvertebrate communities based on J48 classification trees. , 2001, Mededelingen.

[7]  Young-Seuk Park,et al.  Patterning and predicting aquatic macroinvertebrate diversities using artificial neural network. , 2003, Water research.

[8]  P. Verdonschot,et al.  Ecological characterization of surface waters in the province of Overijssel, The Netherlands , 1990 .

[9]  Peter Goethals,et al.  Optimization of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model design for prediction of macroinvertebrates in the Zwalm river basin (Flanders, Belgium) , 2004 .

[10]  E. Duffey,et al.  The scientific management of animal and plant communities for conservation , 1973 .

[11]  Friedrich Recknagel,et al.  Relationships between habitat properties and the occurrence of macroinvertebrates in Queensland streams (Australia) discovered by a sensitivity analysis with artificial neural networks , 2002 .

[12]  J. F. Wright,et al.  Development and use of a system for predicting the macroinvertebrate fauna in flowing waters , 1995 .

[13]  Julian D. Olden,et al.  Illuminating the “black box”: a randomization approach for understanding variable contributions in artificial neural networks , 2002 .

[14]  A. T. C. Goh,et al.  Back-propagation neural networks for modeling complex systems , 1995, Artif. Intell. Eng..

[15]  N. De Pauw,et al.  Performance of two artificial substrate samplers for macroinvertebrates in biological monitoring of large and deep rivers and canals in Belgium and The Netherlands , 1994, Environmental monitoring and assessment.

[16]  H. Moon,et al.  A preliminary review of the occurrence of Asellus (Crustacea Isopoda) in the British Isles , 1981 .

[17]  Sovan Lek,et al.  Application Of Artificial Neural Network Models To Analyse The Relationships Between Gammarus pulex L. (Crustacea, Amphipoda) And River Characteristics , 2005, Environmental monitoring and assessment.

[18]  S. Manel,et al.  Evaluating presence-absence models in ecology: the need to account for prevalence , 2001 .

[19]  I. Dimopoulos,et al.  Role of some environmental variables in trout abundance models using neural networks , 1996 .

[20]  Sovan Lek,et al.  Improved estimation, using neural networks, of the food consumption of fish populations , 1995 .

[21]  P. L. M. Goethals,et al.  Prediction of macroinvertebrate communities in sediments of Flemish watercourses based on artificial neural networks , 2002 .

[22]  A. James,et al.  Biological indicators of water quality , 1979 .

[23]  Sovan Lek,et al.  Applications of artificial neural networks predicting macroinvertebrates in freshwaters , 2007, Aquatic Ecology.

[24]  Young-Seuk Park,et al.  Implementation of artificial neural networks in patterning and prediction of exergy in response to temporal dynamics of benthic macroinvertebrate communities in streams , 2001 .

[25]  D. Sutcliffe,et al.  A revised key to the British species of Crustacea: Malacostraca, occurring in fresh water : with notes on their ecology and distribution , 1976 .

[26]  Yannis Dimopoulos,et al.  Use of some sensitivity criteria for choosing networks with good generalization ability , 1995, Neural Processing Letters.

[27]  Geoffrey E. Hinton,et al.  Learning representations by back-propagating errors , 1986, Nature.

[28]  Sovan Lek,et al.  Artificial neural networks as a tool in ecological modelling, an introduction , 1999 .

[29]  Michele Scardi,et al.  Developing an empirical model of phytoplankton primary production: a neural network case study , 1999 .

[30]  M. Gevrey,et al.  Review and comparison of methods to study the contribution of variables in artificial neural network models , 2003 .

[31]  Friedrich Recknagel,et al.  Predictive modelling of macroinvertebrate assemblages for stream habitat assessments in Queensland (Australia) , 2001 .

[32]  I. Dimopoulos,et al.  Application of neural networks to modelling nonlinear relationships in ecology , 1996 .

[33]  G. David Garson,et al.  Interpreting neural-network connection weights , 1991 .

[34]  I. Dimopoulos,et al.  Neural network models to study relationships between lead concentration in grasses and permanent urban descriptors in Athens city (Greece) , 1999 .

[35]  Jaimie T A Dick,et al.  The validity of the Gammarus:Asellus ratio as an index of organic pollution: abiotic and biotic influences. , 2002, Water research.

[36]  W. J. Walley,et al.  Neural network predictors of average score per taxon and number of families at unpolluted river sites in Great Britain , 1998 .

[37]  P. Goethals,et al.  Use of genetic algorithms to select input variables in decision tree models for the prediction of benthic macroinvertebrates , 2003 .

[38]  Ingrid M. Schleiter,et al.  Modelling water quality, bioindication and population dynamics in lotic ecosystems using neural networks , 1999 .

[39]  M. R. Chambers A comparison of the population ecology of Asellus aquaticus (L.) and Asellus meridianus rac. in the reed beds of the Tjeukemeer , 1977, Hydrobiologia.

[40]  Niels De Pauw,et al.  Method for biological quality assessment of watercourses in Belgium , 2004, Hydrobiologia.

[41]  S. Lek,et al.  Applications of artificial neural networks for patterning and predicting aquatic insect species richness in running waters , 2003 .

[42]  John Bell,et al.  A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models , 1997, Environmental Conservation.

[43]  D. Borchardt,et al.  Bioindication of chemical and hydromorphological habitat characteristics with benthic macro-invertebrates based on Artificial Neural Networks , 2001, Aquatic Ecology.

[44]  T. Dapper,et al.  The influence of environmental variables on the abundance of aquatic insects: a comparison of ordination and artificial neural networks , 2000, Hydrobiologia.

[45]  Peter Goethals,et al.  Genetic algorithms for optimisation of predictive ecosystems models based on decision trees and neural networks , 2006 .

[46]  G. Minshall,et al.  The River Continuum Concept , 1980 .