Modeling of Nonlinear Stochastic Dynamic Traffic Flow

Most dynamic flow models are developed under deterministic assumptions or simple linear models. Although these models can describe dynamic phenomena, they cannot adapt a variance of the real world. However, in the developing trend of intelligent transportation systems, operators have to understand and accurately predict traffic flow to predict, evaluate, and manage the performance of present and future systems. Thus, a model capable of describing variant traffic phenomena, which encompasses both nonlinearity and stochasticity, is necessary. This study formulates nonlinear stochastic dynamic traffic flow models based on conventional macroscopic models; the nonlinear terms are decomposed by polynomials to reduce the complexity of the models. Then, the Itô equation is introduced to convert the deterministic model to a stochastic one. Also considered here is the traffic flow model with a diffusion effect.

[1]  Paul Wasielewski,et al.  An Integral Equation for the Semi-Poisson Headway Distribution Model , 1974 .

[2]  Paul Wasielewski Car-Following Headways on Freeways Interpreted by the Semi-Poisson Headway Distribution Model , 1979 .

[3]  Jiuh-Biing Sheu A stochastic modeling approach to dynamic prediction of section-wide inter-lane and intra-lane traffic variables using point detector data , 1999 .

[4]  Homer J. Holland,et al.  A Stochastic Model for Multilane Traffic Flow , 1967, Transp. Sci..

[5]  M J Lighthill,et al.  On kinematic waves II. A theory of traffic flow on long crowded roads , 1955, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences.

[6]  Michael Schreckenberg,et al.  Two lane traffic simulations using cellular automata , 1995, cond-mat/9512119.

[7]  B D Greenshields,et al.  A study of traffic capacity , 1935 .

[8]  Karmeshu,et al.  A stochastic model for highway traffic , 1981 .

[9]  Rodney J. Vaughan The Distribution of Traffic Volumes , 1970 .

[10]  Michael Schreckenberg,et al.  Particle hopping models for two-lane traffic with two kinds of vehicles: Effects of lane-changing rules , 1997 .

[11]  Robert M. Oliver,et al.  Distribution of Gaps and Blocks in a Traffic Stream , 1962 .

[12]  Donald Richard Drew,et al.  Traffic flow theory and control , 1968 .

[13]  H. Greenberg An Analysis of Traffic Flow , 1959 .

[14]  D. Buckley A Semi-Poisson Model of Traffic Flow , 1968 .

[15]  G. Adomian Nonlinear Stochastic Operator Equations , 1986 .

[16]  Jiuh-Biing Sheu STOCHASTIC ESTIMATION OF LANE-CHANGING PROBABILITIES AND ITS APPLICATION TO INCIDENT DETECTION , 1997 .

[17]  P. I. Richards Shock Waves on the Highway , 1956 .

[18]  Gordon F. Newell THEORY OF HIGHWAY TRAFFIC FLOW, 1945 TO 1965. , 1995 .

[19]  T. Nagatani Effect of car acceleration on traffic flow in 1D stochastic CA model , 1996 .