A Methodology for Modeling the Flow of Military Personnel Across Air Force Active and Reserve Components

Abstract : The Air Force is placing increased emphasis on managing its airmen as a total force. Yet many aspects of personnel management are conducted within the confines of a particular componentwhether active, guard, or reserve. As a result, when personnel policies are implemented in one component, little is known or considered about the effect that those policies might have on personnel flows into and out of other components. The degree to which this is important varies by career field, so examination of such concerns must be conducted not only at an aggregate level but also for individual specialties. Total force personnel management requires tools that provide managers with insight on personnel flows across components and how those flows are affected by personnel policies thatlead to changes in accessions, retention, affiliation, and retirements. With a view toward shaping the future force size and mix from a total force perspective, the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Manpower and Reserve Affairs (SAF/MR) asked RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) to help improve Air Force capability to analyze and capitalize on military personnel flows across the total force. In response to this request, RAND developed a component flow model describedin this report. The models description and capabilities will be of interest to manpower and personnel managers and analysts both in and outside the Air Force.