A practical reliability-based method for assessing soil liquefaction potential

The current simplified methods for assessing soil liquefaction potential use a deterministic safety factor in order to judge whether liquefaction will occur or not. However, these methods are unable to determine the liquefaction probability related to a safety factor. An answer to this problem can be found by reliability analysis. This paper presents a reliability analysis method based on the popular Seed'85 liquefaction analysis method. This reliability method uses the empirical acceleration attenuation law in the Taiwan area to derive the probability density distribution function (PDF) and the statistics for the earthquake-induced cyclic shear stress ratio (CSR). The PDF and the statistics for the cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) can be deduced from some probabilistic cyclic resistance curves. These curves are produced by the regression of the liquefaction and non-liquefaction data from the Chi-Chi earthquake and others around the world, using, with minor modifications, the logistic model proposed by Liao [J. Geotech. Eng. 114 (1988) 389]. The CSR and CRR statistics are used in conjunction with the first order and second moment method, to calculate the relation between the liquefaction probability, the safety factor and the reliability index. Based on the proposed method, the liquefaction probability related to a safety factor can be easily calculated. The influence of some of the soil parameters on the liquefaction probability can be quantitatively evaluated.

[1]  C. H. Juang,et al.  CPT-based liquefaction analysis, Part 2: Reliability for design , 2000 .

[2]  Michael N. Fardis,et al.  Probabilistic Analysis of Deposit Liquefaction , 1982 .

[3]  Riley M. Chung,et al.  Influence of SPT Procedures in Soil Liquefaction Resistance Evaluations , 1985 .

[4]  C. H. Juang,et al.  CPT-based liquefaction analysis, Part 1: Determination of limit state function , 2000 .

[5]  Ronald D. Andrus,et al.  Assessing probability-based methods for liquefaction potential evaluation , 2002 .

[6]  日本道路協会.  Specifications for highway bridges , 1984 .

[7]  Kenneth W. Campbell,et al.  Near-source attenuation of peak horizontal acceleration , 1981 .

[8]  Ping-Sien Lin,et al.  Simplified cone penetration test-based method for evaluating liquefaction resistance of soils , 2003 .

[9]  Chin-Wen Yang,et al.  Verification of critical cyclic strength curve by Taiwan Chi-Chi earthquake data , 2001 .

[10]  Wilson H. Tang,et al.  Probability concepts in engineering planning and design , 1984 .

[11]  R D. Andrus,et al.  Draft Guidelines for Evaluating Liquefaction Resistance Using Shear Wave Velocity Measurements and Simplified Procedures | NIST , 1999 .

[12]  Robert V. Whitman,et al.  Regression Models For Evaluating Liquefaction Probability , 1988 .

[13]  Achintya Haldar,et al.  PROBABILISTIC EVALUATION OF LIQUEFACTION POTENTIAL , 1979 .

[14]  T L Youd,et al.  LIQUEFACTION CRITERIA BASED ON STATISTICAL AND PROBABILISTIC ANALYSES , 1997 .

[15]  Roger D. Leitch.  Reliability Analysis for Engineers: An Introduction , 1995 .

[16]  Jean-Lou Chameau,et al.  Probabilistic Pore Pressure Analysis for Seismic Loading , 1983 .

[17]  Elmer E Lewis,et al.  Introduction To Reliability Engineering , 1987 .

[18]  H. Bolton Seed,et al.  Ground Motions and Soil Liquefaction During Earthquakes , 1982 .