Resilience through adaptation

Adaptation of agents through learning or evolution is an important component of the resilience of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). Without adaptation, the flexibility of such systems to cope with outside pressures would be much lower. To study the capabilities of CAS to adapt, social simulations with agent-based models (ABMs) provide a helpful tool. However, the value of ABMs for studying adaptation depends on the availability of methodologies for sensitivity analysis that can quantify resilience and adaptation in ABMs. In this paper we propose a sensitivity analysis methodology that is based on comparing time-dependent probability density functions of output of ABMs with and without agent adaptation. The differences between the probability density functions are quantified by the so-called earth-mover’s distance. We use this sensitivity analysis methodology to quantify the probability of occurrence of critical transitions and other long-term effects of agent adaptation. To test the potential of this new approach, it is used to analyse the resilience of an ABM of adaptive agents competing for a common-pool resource. Adaptation is shown to contribute positively to the resilience of this ABM. If adaptation proceeds sufficiently fast, it may delay or avert the collapse of this system.

[1]  Haibin Ling,et al.  An Efficient Earth Mover's Distance Algorithm for Robust Histogram Comparison , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence.

[2]  Matteo G. Richiardi,et al.  Estimation of ergodic agent-based models by simulated minimum distance , 2015 .

[3]  Barry L. Nelson,et al.  ‘Some tactical problems in digital simulation’ for the next 10 years , 2016, J. Simulation.

[4]  J. V. Lith.  Ergodic Theory, Interpretations of Probability and the Foundations of Statistical Mechanics , 2001 .

[5]  Jaap Molenaar,et al.  Detecting tipping points in ecological models with sensitivity analysis , 2016 .

[6]  Sigrid Stagl,et al.  See Blockindiscussions, Blockinstats, Blockinand Blockinauthor Blockinprofiles Blockinfor Blockinthis Blockinpublication Managing Blockincomplex Blockinadaptive Blockinsystems Blockin— Blockina Blockinco- Evolutionary Blockinperspective Blockinon Blockinnatural Blockinresource Management , 2022 .

[7]  Mikhail Burtsev,et al.  Evolution of cooperative strategies from first principles , 2006, Nature.

[8]  A. Kinzig,et al.  Assessing Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems : Workbook for Practitioners , 2011 .

[9]  Arend Ligtenberg,et al.  Which Sensitivity Analysis Method Should I Use for My Agent-Based Model? , 2016, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[10]  S. Levin.  Ecosystems and the Biosphere as Complex Adaptive Systems , 1998, Ecosystems.

[11]  C. Folke.  RESILIENCE: THE EMERGENCE OF A PERSPECTIVE FOR SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS ANALYSES , 2006 .

[12]  Olaf Witkowski,et al.  The Hunger Games: Embodied agents evolving foraging strategies on the frugal-greedy spectrum , 2015, ECAL.

[13]  .. Colona,et al.  Bifurcation analysis of an agent-based model for predator–prey interactions , 2015 .

[14]  Peter Froncek.  The Effects of Network Structure on the Emergence of Norms in Adaptive Populations , 2015, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[15]  G. Harrison.  Stability under Environmental Stress: Resistance, Resilience, Persistence, and Variability , 1979, The American Naturalist.

[16]  K. Arrow,et al.  Social-ecological systems as complex adaptive systems: modeling and policy implications , 2012, Environment and Development Economics.

[17]  Suresh Venkatasubramanian,et al.  Moving heaven and earth: distances between distributions , 2013, SIGA.

[18]  Forrest Stonedahl,et al.  The Complexities of Agent-Based Modeling Output Analysis , 2015, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[19]  Klaus G. Troitzsch,et al.  Simulation Experiments and Significance Tests , 2014 .

[20]  Carl Folke,et al.  The emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses , 2006 .

[21]  Charles M. Macal,et al.  Everything you need to know about agent-based modelling and simulation , 2016, J. Simulation.

[22]  Dawn Cassandra Parker,et al.  Spatial agent-based models for socio-ecological systems: Challenges and prospects , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[23]  Matt Farr,et al.  Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics , 2015 .

[24]  Leonidas J. Guibas,et al.  A metric for distributions with applications to image databases , 1998, Sixth International Conference on Computer Vision (IEEE Cat. No.98CH36271).

[25]  C. S. Holling,et al.  Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability in Social–ecological Systems , 2004 .

[26]  Michael Batty,et al.  SERIES Key Challenges in Agent-Based Modelling for GeoSpatial Simulation , 2007 .

[27]  W. Arthur.  Out-of-equilibrium economics and agent-based modeling , 2006 .

[28]  Jakob Grazzini,et al.  Analysis of the Emergent Properties: Stationarity and Ergodicity , 2012, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[29]  Berkeley,et al.  Critical transitions in nature and society , 2009, Choice Reviews Online.

[30]  Katharina Burger,et al.  Random Data Analysis And Measurement Procedures , 2016 .

[31]  Agus Sudjianto,et al.  Relative Entropy Based Method for Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis in Engineering Design , 2006 .

[32]  Jason Brownlee,et al.  Complex adaptive systems , 2007 .

[33]  P. Opdam,et al.  Resilience-based governance in rural landscapes: Experiments with agri-environment schemes using a spatially explicit agent-based model , 2013 .

[34]  John H. Holland,et al.  Studying Complex Adaptive Systems , 2006, J. Syst. Sci. Complex..

[35]  Carlos Guedes Soares,et al.  Global sensitivity analysis based on entropy , 2008 .

[36]  M. Schlüter,et al.  Research, part of a Special Feature on New Methods for Adaptive Water Management Mechanisms of Resilience in Common-pool Resource Management Systems: an Agent-based Model of Water Use in a River Basin , 2007 .

[37]  LingHaibin,et al.  An Efficient Earth Mover's Distance Algorithm for Robust Histogram Comparison , 2007 .

[38]  Emanuele Borgonovo,et al.  A new uncertainty importance measure , 2007, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[39]  A. Saltelli,et al.  The role of sensitivity analysis in ecological modelling , 2007 .

[40]  Donald R. Nelson,et al.  Adaptation and resilience: responding to a changing climate , 2011 .

[41]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Managing the Resilience of Lakes: A Multi-agent Modeling Approach , 1999 .

[42]  Robert Costanza,et al.  Achieving sustainable societies: Lessons from modelling the ancient Maya , 2014 .

[43]  R. Axelrod.  An Evolutionary Approach to Norms , 1986, American Political Science Review.