Understanding Forest Changes to Support Planning: A Fine-Scale Markov Chain Approach

Abstract The abandonment of farming and agriculture is leading to an increase in forest coverage in most European mountain areas. Based on a long series of data (1859–2006), this study presents the development of a spatially explicit fine-scale Markov chain model to predict future changes in forests over a broad area and to assist the management of Paneveggio Nature Park, Italy. The results predict an increase in forest coverage and a reduction in the extent of open habitats, which are a priority for conservation. This protocol can be used for designing long-term management measures focusing on endangered habitats.

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