A reliability prediction model for power transformers

Power systems reliability assessment represents a complex task due to large number of systems and subsystems and for the significant number of different stresses affecting on individual components. Different models, methods and metrics can be used for electric and electronic systems in specific applications. The aim of this paper consists in the development of a reliability prediction models for power transformers in hybrid AC/DC grids. Future energy scenario with bidirectional power flows could stress transformers components. The propose approach intends to evaluate thermo-mechanical, environment and quality stress factors for each transformer subsystem with particular attention to ageing phenomena. The overall transformer reliability performances are calculated in real operating conditions characterizing 2030 scenarios.