Research on Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Microcosmic Simulation

The accuracy of common forecasting method is very low due to the in-veracity of traffic flow changing as the predicting period gets shorten. In order to forecast the traffic flow in short term, taken city expressways as objects, one kind of short-term traffic flow prediction measure based on microcosmic-simulation technology was put forward. This method is based on real time expressway traffic data. All the cars were distributed with M3 Model at the beginning. The future expressway traffic flow was predicted in use of Microcosmic Traffic Simulation method and OD matrix estimation based on constrained Kalman filter. The better predict outcome has been approved by practical test.