Power system short-term operational reliability evaluation considering weather forecast

The time-varying weather conditions and electrical conditions have significant impacts on power system short-term operational reliability.This paper studies power system shor t-term operational reliability evaluation considering weather forecast.Firstl y,a weather forecast model based on support vector machin e(SV M)and shor t-term reliability models of power equipment are proposed to reflect the effects of operating conditions such as ambient temperature,wind velocity,weather condition,service time of equipmen t,load current and so on.Secondly,shor t-term reliability indices are extended,and the corresponding evaluation algorithm is developed.Finall y,weak links of the power system are located through the short-term operational reliability evaluation.The proposed models and algorithms are tested under different operating conditions by using the modified IEEE RTS-79 system and their effectiveness is verified.This scheme can be applied in the area of both sh ort-term operational planning and online dispatching of power systems to assist planners and operators to make decisions.