This vulnerability assessment was undertaken using a cause and effect framework (see fig 1). The approach used recognised that climate change and sea level rise needed to be examined in the context of the natural variability of the processes affecting the coastal wetlands of the Alligator Rivers Region (ARR). Two sets of forcing factors have been identified, natural and human. These affect natural, cultural, social and economic systems and result in a range of governmental responses.
The vulnerability assessment was based on an assessment of past and current geomorphic changes in the coastal zone and predictions of likely further change. An ecological assessment was then superimposed. Information specific to the region was supplemented from studies carried out in adjacent catchments. The assessment provided views of change at a biophysical regional scale for Van Diemen Gulf, a series of regional catchments encompassing Kakadu National Park, and for the catchment of Magela Creek within the park as an example of a locality scale assessment.