Satellite detection of hazardous volcanic clouds and the risk to global air traffic

Remote sensing instruments have been used to identify, track and in some cases quantify atmospheric constituents from space-borne platforms for nearly 30 years. These data have proven to be extremely useful for detecting hazardous ash and gas (principally SO2) clouds emitted by volcanoes and which have the potential to intersect global air routes. The remoteness of volcanoes, the sporadic timings of eruptions and the ability of the upper atmosphere winds to quickly spread ash and gas, make satellite remote sensing a key tool for developing hazard warning systems. It is easily recognized how powerful these tools are for hazard detection and yet there has not been a single instrument designed specifically for this use. Instead, researchers have had to make use of instruments and data designed for other purposes. In this article the satellite instruments, algorithms and techniques used for ash and gas detection are described from a historical perspective with a view to elucidating their value and shortcomings. Volcanic clouds residing in the mid- to upper-troposphere (heights above 5 km) have the greatest potential of intersecting air routes and can be dispersed over many 1,000s of kilometres by the prevailing winds. Global air traffic vulnerability to the threat posed by volcanic clouds is then considered from the perspectives of satellite remote sensing, the upper troposphere mean wind circulation, and current and forecast air traffic density based on an up-to-date aircraft emissions inventory. It is concluded that aviation in the Asia Pacific region will be increasingly vulnerable to volcanic cloud encounters because of the large number of active volcanoes in the region and the increasing growth rate of air traffic in that region. It is also noted that should high-speed civil transport (HSCT) aircraft become operational, there will be an increased risk to volcanic debris that is far from its source location. This vulnerability is highlighted using air traffic density maps based on NOx emissions and satellite SO2 observations of the spread of volcanic clouds.

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