Short-term forecasting of available parking space using wavelet neural network model

The technique to forecast available parking spaces (APSs) is the foundation theory of parking guidance information systems (PGISs). This study utilises data collected on parking availability at several off-street parking garages in Newcastle upon Tyne, England, to investigate the changing characteristics of APS. Using these baseline data the research reported here aims to build up a short-term APS forecasting model and applies the wavelet neural network (WNN) method to the PGIS problem. After selecting optimal preferences, including training set size, delay time and embedding dimension, the APS short-term forecasting model based on WNN is built and tested using the real-world dataset. By experimental tests conducted using the same dataset, WNN's prediction performance is compared with the largest Lyapunov exponents (LEs) method in the aspects of accuracy, efficiency and robustness. It is found that WNN prevails through a more efficient structure and employs, barely half of the computational cost compared to the largest LEs method, which could be significant if applied to real-time operation. Moreover, WNN enjoys a more accurate performance, for its prediction average mean square error (MSE) is 6.4 ± 3.1 (in a parking building with 492 parking lots) for workdays and 8.5 ± 6.2 for weekends, compared to the MSE of largest LEs method, 18.7 and 29.0, respectively.

[1]  Hongzhi Guan,et al.  Unoccupied Parking Space Prediction of Chaotic Time Series , 2010 .

[2]  N. Yoshikai,et al.  Intelligent parking reservation service on the Internet , 2001, Proceedings 2001 Symposium on Applications and the Internet Workshops (Cat. No.01PR0945).

[3]  Felix Caicedo,et al.  The use of space availability information in "PARC" systems to reduce search times in parking facilities , 2009 .

[4]  Hualiang Teng,et al.  Parking difficulty and parking information system technologies and costs , 2008 .

[5]  Ram Rajagopal,et al.  Optimal Parking Pricing in General Networks with Provision of Occupancy Information , 2013 .

[6]  S. K. Singh,et al.  Application of adaptive wavelet neural network to forecast operating reserve requirements in forward ancillary services market , 2011, Appl. Soft Comput..

[7]  Michael Florian,et al.  Impact of the supply of parking spaces on parking lot choice , 1980 .

[8]  Xinyue Wang,et al.  The research on the key technologies for improving efficiency of parking guidance system , 2003, Proceedings of the 2003 IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[9]  Mikael Bask,et al.  The Stability of Electricity Prices: Estimation and Inference of the Lyapunov Exponents , 2007 .

[10]  Jie Wu,et al.  Application of the largest Lyapunov exponent and non-linear fractal extrapolation algorithm to short-term load forecasting , 2012 .

[11]  Gang Ren,et al.  Detection of Outliers in a Time Series of Available Parking Spaces , 2013 .

[12]  M. Moraud.  Wavelet Networks , 2018, Foundations of Wavelet Networks and Applications.

[13]  H. Abarbanel,et al.  Determining embedding dimension for phase-space reconstruction using a geometrical construction. , 1992, Physical review. A, Atomic, molecular, and optical physics.

[14]  Phil Blythe,et al.  Understanding drivers’ perspective on parking guidance information , 2014 .

[15]  R. Arnott.  Spatial competition between parking garages and downtown parking policy , 2006 .

[16]  Xin Tao Xia,et al.  Dynamic Prediction Model for Rolling Bearing Friction Torque Using Grey Bootstrap Fusion Method and Chaos Theory , 2012 .

[17]  Henry D. I. Abarbanel,et al.  Analysis of Observed Chaotic Data , 1995 .

[18]  N. Pindoriya,et al.  An Adaptive Wavelet Neural Network-Based Energy Price Forecasting in Electricity Markets , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[19]  Francesc Robusté,et al.  Parking Management and Modeling of Car Park Patron Behavior in Underground Facilities , 2006 .

[20]  Gregory D. Erhardt,et al.  Market-Based Framework for Forecasting Parking Cost in Traditional and Microsimulation Modeling Applications , 2005 .

[21]  Jin Wang,et al.  Short-term traffic speed forecasting hybrid model based on Chaos–Wavelet Analysis-Support Vector Machine theory , 2013 .

[22]  Carola A. Blazquez,et al.  Prediction of parking space availability in real time , 2012, Expert Syst. Appl..

[23]  Jian Wang,et al.  Study of the mode of real-time and dynamic parking guidance and information systems based on fuzzy clustering analysis , 2004, Proceedings of 2004 International Conference on Machine Learning and Cybernetics (IEEE Cat. No.04EX826).

[24]  M. R. Burns,et al.  An econometric forecasting model of revenues from urban parking facilities , 1992 .

[25]  M. Rosenstein,et al.  A practical method for calculating largest Lyapunov exponents from small data sets , 1993 .

[26]  Hojjat Adeli,et al.  Dynamic Wavelet Neural Network Model for Traffic Flow Forecasting , 2005 .

[27]  Shuangyin Liu,et al.  Study of short-term water quality prediction model based on wavelet neural network , 2013, Math. Comput. Model..

[28]  F. Takens.  Detecting strange attractors in turbulence , 1981 .

[29]  H Y Jung,et al.  Basic consideration on parking strategy in central business districts to obtain a better use of the limited available parking space , 1989 .