Accuracy of Earth's Thermospheric Neutral Density Models

[Abstract] Atmospheric drag remains the dominant uncertainty for low altitude satellite precision orbit determination . Empirical models are used to estimate satellite drag. Model accuracies have shown little improvement in the past 35 years. A new Ja cchia -Bowman 2006 (JB2006) empirical model has been developed as part of the Air Force Space Command’s High A ccuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) program. Significant new model features of JB2006 are solar indices based on satellite EUV and FUV sensor s and an improved semiannual variation. This new model is compared to historic models vs altitude, latitude, local time , day of year and solar and geomagnetic conditions . Data are from a unique high accuracy set of thermospheric neutral densities with one -day r esolution, obtained from tracking of 38 satellites. The e valuation is carried out for the period 199 7 to 2004 , when the specific solar indices for JB2006 were available . The results provide improved understanding of quantitative relations between current s olar inputs and t he response of the thermosphere . New formulations incorporated into the JB2006 lead to a capability to more accurately specify thermospheric density .

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