Stochastic Modeling of Temporal Variability of HIV-1 Population

A multivariate stochastic model for describing the dynamics of complex non-numerical ensembles, such as observed in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) genome, is developed. This model is based on principle component analyses for numberized variables. The model coefficients are presented in the terms of deterministic trends with correlated lags. The results indicate that we may use this model in short-term forecast of HIV evolution, for evaluation of HIV drug resistance and for testing and validation of diagnostic expert rules. The model also reproduces the specific shape of the bi-modal distribution for the mutations number.

[1]  Peter M. A. Sloot,et al.  Cellular Automata Model of Drug Therapy for HIV Infection , 2002, ACRI.

[2]  Wilco Keulen,et al.  Estimating Relative Fitness in Viral Competition Experiments , 2000, Journal of Virology.

[3]  D. Brillinger.  Time series - data analysis and theory , 1981, Classics in applied mathematics.

[4]  J. Wolfe.  PATTERN CLUSTERING BY MULTIVARIATE MIXTURE ANALYSIS. , 1970, Multivariate behavioral research.

[5]  L. Weitner,et al.  Drug-resistant genotyping in HIV-1 therapy , 1999, The Lancet.

[6]  T. Merigan,et al.  A randomized study of antiretroviral management based on plasma genotypic antiretroviral resistance testing in patients failing therapy , 2000 .

[7]  M. Waterman.  Mathematical Methods for DNA Sequences , 1989 .

[8]  Anja Vogler,et al.  An Introduction to Multivariate Statistical Analysis , 2004 .

[9]  David R. Brillinger,et al.  Time Series: Data Analysis and Theory. , 1982 .

[10]  S. Prigarin,et al.  Numerical Modelling of Random Processes and Fields: Algorithms and Applications , 1996 .

[11]  Elizabeth Connick,et al.  Antiretroviral-drug resistance among patients recently infected with HIV. , 2002, The New England journal of medicine.

[12]  J. Schapiro,et al.  Drug-resistance genotyping in HIV-1 therapy: the VIRAD APT randomi sed controlled trial , 1999, The Lancet.

[13]  N. L. Johnson,et al.  Multivariate Analysis , 1958, Nature.

[14]  Charles E. Heckler,et al.  Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis , 2005, Technometrics.