The Potential of European Biomass Resources and Related Costs in the EU-27 and the Ukraine

In this paper the European biomass resource potential is assessed, distinguishing between; dedicated bio-energy crops, forestry residues and agricultural residues. A scenario driven assessment was used to calculate available arable and pasture land for the EU-27 and the Ukraine for the years 2010, 2020 and 2030. A bio-energy crop productivity and cost model estimate the potential yields and production cost. Three scenarios have been used for the calculation, each with a different rationale of development path and speed. Results indicate that the bio-energy potentials are strongly feedstock dependant. The supply potentials for the EU-27 and Ukraine range from about 2 EJ in 2010 for oil crop based feedstocks to 17 EJ for the best performing ligno-cellulosic feedstocks in 2030. Both production levels as well as the relative abundance of available land for the production of Bioenergy crops favour Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) and the Ukraine. Production cost levels are on average lower in the CEEC than the Western European Countries (WEC). The cost supply potenital indicates that European domestic supply is substantial under the assumptions made in this analysis.