Anatomy of North Pacific Decadal Variability

Abstract A systematic analysis of North Pacific decadal variability in a full-physics coupled ocean–atmosphere model is executed. The model is an updated and improved version of the coupled model studied by Latif and Barnett. Evidence is sought for determining the details of the mechanism responsible for the enhanced variance of some variables at 20–30-yr timescales. The possible mechanisms include a midlatitude gyre ocean–atmosphere feedback loop, stochastic forcing, remote forcing, or sampling error. Decadal variability in the model is expressed most prominently in anomalies of upper-ocean streamfunction, sea surface temperature (SST), and latent surface heat flux in the Kuroshio–Oyashio extension (KOE) region off Japan. The decadal signal off Japan is initiated by changes in strength and position of the Aleutian low. The atmospheric perturbations excite SST anomalies in the central and eastern North Pacific (with opposing signs and canonical structure). The atmospheric perturbations also change the Ekm...

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