Probabilistic Deviation Detection and Optimal Thresholds

Abstract : The PDDOT program is to provide a method of continuously monitoring military plans during execution for deviations from expected performance. Determining such deviations in critical to the success of military operations where the complexity of the battle space and rapidly evolving enemy tactics requires an agile and effective response. In addition, commanders face the challenge of deciding when a deviation is significant enough to warrant the risks of re-planning. The PDDOT project identifies an optimal deviation threshold for determining when the executing plan is proceeding as planned, or needs to be modified.