Numerical Simulation of Population Distribution in China

A model for simulating population distribution (MSPD) of China is developed based on the grid generation method and the Control of MapObjects of geographical information system. Elevation, net primary productivity, land use and land cover, city sizes and their spatial distribution, and spatial distribution of transport infrastructures are taken into full account in the MSPD. The result from the MSPD shows that in 2000, 90.8% of the total population of China distributed on the southeastern side of the Heihe-Tengchong line. The ratio of population on the northwestern side to total population of China has been increasing since 1935. The yearly growth rate was 0.8% from 1935 to 1990 and 6.1% from 1990 to 2000. One important advantage of the MSPD is that when scenarios of land cover, spatial distributions of transport infrastructures and cities are available, scenarios of spatial population distribution can be developed on the basis of total population forecast.

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