Assessing state population projections with transparent multiregional demographic models

Population projection models that are conceptually simple enough to be called transparent may be used to check the validity of projections generated by “black box” models whose behavior may be somewhat shrouded in mystery. This paper adopts a multiregional demographic model to illustrate how such a validation procedure might be carried out on state population projections produced by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in 1988.

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