Thenextgenerationofscenariosforclimate change research and assessment

Advancesinthescienceandobservationofclimatechangeareprovidingaclearerunderstandingoftheinherentvariabilityof Earth’s climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environmentandsocietywilldependnotonlyontheresponseoftheEarthsystemtochangesinradiativeforcings,butalsoon how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences ofdifferent response options. To date,suchscenarioshave notadequately examined crucialpossibilities,such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information amongphysical,biologicalandsocialscientists.Herewedescribeanewprocessforcreatingplausiblescenariostoinvestigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

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