Performance analysis of technology using the S curve model: the case of digital signal processing (DSP)

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the evolution of the technology performance of Digital Signal Processing components (DSPs) using the S curve model. In the first part, the theoretical base of this model is established through a comparative study between the S curve model and other concepts with which it is closely related: innovation diffusion models and life cycle models. The purpose of this study is to use the solid analytical foundation of these models to increase the theoretical consistency of the S curve model. In the second part of the article, a methodology that facilitates the application of this model is proposed. At the same time, the usefulness of the S curve as a strategic analysis tool is discussed as well as the problems that can arise when the model is put into practice. This methodology is used in the analysis of the technology of DSPs. © 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

[1]  J. Norton,et al.  Integrating R&D and marketing: a comparison of practices in the Japanese and American chemical industries , 1994 .

[2]  E. Mansfield.  TECHNICAL CHANGE AND THE RATE OF IMITATION , 1961 .

[3]  S. Winter,et al.  An evolutionary theory of economic change , 1983 .

[4]  D. Wilemon,et al.  R&d and marketing managers in high-tech companies: Are they different? , 1986, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.

[5]  John T. Scott,et al.  Market Structure and Technological Change , 1987 .

[6]  S. Davies.  The Diffusion of Process Innovations , 1979 .

[7]  Michael W. Lawless,et al.  Technology and Strategy: Conceptual Models and Diagnostics , 1994 .

[8]  D A Berkowitz,et al.  Strategic technology management. , 1989, The Healthcare Forum journal.

[9]  Robert M. Oliver,et al.  Saturation models: A brief survey and critique , 1988 .

[10]  Karmeshu,et al.  Modeling innovation diffusion with distributed time lag , 1988 .

[11]  Robert W. Shaw,et al.  The strategic management of technology , 1983 .

[12]  Christopher Freeman,et al.  Unemployment And Technical Innovation , 1982 .

[13]  P. A. Carroad,et al.  strategic Interfacing of R&D and Marketing : Research Management , 1987 .

[14]  Paul Stoneman,et al.  Handbook of the economics of innovation and technological change , 1995 .

[15]  E. Mansfield.  Industrial research and technological innovation , 1968 .

[16]  J. C. Fisher,et al.  A simple substitution model of technological change , 1971 .

[17]  Richard N. Foster.  Effective R&D Operations in the '80s: Boosting the Payoff From R&D , 1982 .

[18]  Margaret A. Peteraf.  The cornerstones of competitive advantage: A resource‐based view , 1993 .

[19]  Frederic G Withington.  Technology forecast , 1985 .

[20]  Anthony R White,et al.  Strategic management , 1986 .

[21]  Z. Griliches.  HYBRID CORN: AN EXPLORATION IN THE ECONOMIC OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE , 1957 .

[22]  David R. Rink,et al.  Fitting market strategy to varying product life cycles , 1982 .

[23]  Joseph T. Mahoney,et al.  The resource-based view within the conversation of strategic management , 1992 .

[24]  Uma Kumar,et al.  Technological innovation diffusion: the proliferation of substitution models and easing the user's dilemma , 1992 .

[25]  N Meade.  Forecasting with growth curves: the effect of error structure. , 1988, Journal of forecasting.

[26]  William E. Souder,et al.  Promoting an Effective R&D/Marketing Interface , 1980 .

[27]  E. Mansfield.  The diffusion of industrial robots in Japan and the United States , 1993 .

[28]  P. A. Roussel,et al.  Technological Maturity Proves a Valid and Important Concept : Research Management , 1984 .

[29]  F. R. Oliver.  Tractors in Spain: a Further Logistic Analysis , 1981 .

[30]  P. Stoneman,et al.  The Economic Analysis of Technological Change , 1983 .

[31]  Richard N. Foster,et al.  Timing technological transitions , 1985 .

[32]  S. Winter,et al.  An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change.by Richard R. Nelson; Sidney G. Winter , 1987 .

[33]  W. E. Cox,et al.  Product Life Cycles as Marketing Models , 1967 .

[34]  James M. Utterback,et al.  Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation , 1996 .

[35]  P. Carroad,et al.  Strategic Interfacing of R&D and Marketing , 1982 .

[36]  Gerard J. Tellis,et al.  An Evolutionary Approach to Product Growth Theory , 1981 .

[37]  J. O. Hilbrink.  Technology decomposition theory and magnetic disk technology , 1990 .

[38]  Laurine M. Speltz,et al.  Putting the S-Curve Concept to Work , 1983 .

[39]  H. Igor Ansoff,et al.  Implanting Strategic Management , 1984 .

[40]  Karel Cool,et al.  Asset stock accumulation and sustainability of competitive advantage , 1989 .

[41]  Simon Kuznets,et al.  Secular Movements In Production And Prices , 1930 .

[42]  Stephen Davies,et al.  Economics of Industrial Organisation , 1988 .

[43]  J.K. Pinto.  Technology and Strategy: Conceptual Models and Diagnostics , 1996, Proceedings of the IEEE.

[44]  B. Twiss.  Managing Technological Innovation , 1974 .

[45]  Vijay Mahajan,et al.  Chapter 8 New-product diffusion models , 1993, Marketing.

[46]  Domenico Campisi,et al.  The diffusion and spatial distribution of new telecommunication technologies in the Italian region of Campania , 1992 .

[47]  Nigel Meade,et al.  Technological substitution: A framework of stochastic models , 1989 .

[48]  J. Metcalfe.  Impulse and diffusion in the study of technical change , 1981 .

[49]  M. Kesler,et al.  Third generation R&D , 1993 .

[50]  Robert H. Becker,et al.  Working The S-Curve: Making More Explicit Forecasts , 1986 .

[51]  Alok K. Chakrabarti,et al.  R&D/marketing linkage and innovation strategy: some West German experience , 1988 .

[52]  M. Meler,et al.  New product diffusion models , 1995 .

[53]  Robert U. Ayres,et al.  Toward a non-linear dynamics of technological progress , 1994 .

[54]  R. V. Wyk.  Innovation: The attacker's advantage : Richard N. Foster 316 pages, £14.95 (London, Macmillan, 1986) , 1987 .

[55]  R. Szakonyi,et al.  Dealing with a nonobvious source of problems related to selecting R&D to meet customers' future needs: weaknesses within an R&D organization's and within a marketing organization's individual operations , 1988 .

[56]  Hiroyuki Itami.  Mobilizing invisible assets , 1987 .

[57]  R. N. Foster.  Boosting the Payoff From R&D : Research Management , 1987 .

[58]  F. Bass.  A new product growth model for consumer durables , 1976 .

[59]  T. Levitt.  EXPLOIT THE PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE , 1965 .

[60]  Raymond Pearl.  Studies in human biology , 1925 .

[61]  James M. Utterback,et al.  A dynamic model of process and product innovation , 1975 .

[62]  E. Rogers,et al.  Diffusion of Innovations , 1964 .

[63]  J. Butler.  Theories of technological innovation as useful tools for corporate strategy , 1988 .