Energy Scenarios 2030. Model Projections of Energy Demand as a Basis to Quantify Austria's Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The present study develops three energy scenarios for the Austrian economy up to 2030. These scenarios incorporate existing measures and policies on energy use and climate protection enacted before March 2012 (WEM – "with existing measures"). In addition to the main WEM scenario, two sensitivity scenarios (WEM Sens 1 and WEM Sens 2) are computed based on alternative assumptions of world economic and fossil fuel price developments. The methodological approach to modelling energy scenarios takes a top-down macroeconomic perspective based on the dynamic econometric Input-Output model DEIO in order to generate national economic and energy data, i.e., GDP and the final energy demand of households and industries. The top-down economic model is interlinked with bottom-up models that derive sectoral energy demands and supply scenarios as well as energy efficiency data for energy-relevant capital stocks from a micro-data perspective. Both results – an annual average GDP growth of 1.5 percent with an average annual growth in energy demand of 0.8 percent (WEM), or a much lower average annual GDP growth of 0.8 percent with an average growth in energy demand of 0.6 percent (WEM Sens 2) – produce a final energy demand of close to 1,100 PJ in 2020 (as stipulated by the Austrian Energy Strategy). The WEM scenario thus attests to a higher energy efficiency which is the result of higher international energy prices. By contrast, the high-growth scenario (WEM Sens 1) with an average annual GDP growth of 2.5 percent and an average annual rise in energy demand of 1.5 percent overshoots the 1,100 PJ target in 2020 by about 100 PJ which grows further to 1,429 PJ in 2030. Thus higher growth would require additional intervention in terms of enacting further climate and energy policy measures to keep final energy demand strictly below 1,100 PJ by 2020.