Healthy Aging Within an Image: Using Muscle Radiodensitometry and Lifestyle Factors to Predict Diabetes and Hypertension

The strong age dependency of many deleterious health outcomes likely reflects the cumulative effects from a variety of risk and protective factors that occur over one's life course. This notion has become increasingly explored in the etiology of chronic disease and associated comorbidities in aging. Our recent work has shown the robust classification of individuals at risk for cardiovascular pathophysiology using CT-based soft tissue radiodensity parameters obtained from nonlinear trimodal regression analysis (NTRA). Past and present lifestyle influences the incidence of comorbidities like hypertension (HTN), diabetes (DM) and cardiac diseases. 2,943 elderly subjects from the AGES-Reykjavik study were sorted into a three-level binary-tree structure defined by: 1) lifestyle factors (smoking and self-reported physical activity level), 2) comorbid HTN or DM, and 3) cardiac pathophysiology. NTRA parameters were extracted from mid-thigh CT cross-sections to quantify radiodensitometric changes in three tissue types: lean muscle, fat, and loose-connective tissue. Between-group differences were assessed at each binary-tree level, which were then used in tree-based machine learning (ML) models to classify subjects with DM or HTN. Classification scores for detecting HTN or DM based on lifestyle factors were excellent (AUCROC: 0.978 and 0.990, respectively). Finally, tissue importance analysis underlined the comparatively-high significance of connective tissue parameters in ML classification, while predictive models of DM onset from five-year longitudinal data gave a classification accuracy of 94.9%. Altogether, this work serves as an important milestone toward the construction of predictive tools for assessing the impact of lifestyle factors and healthy aging based on a single image.