Assessing model-based and conflict-based uncertainty

Assessment panels need to communicate scientific uncertainty, and often face choices about how to simplify or synthesize it. One important distinction is between uncertainty that has been modeled, and that which derives from disagreement among experts. From an economic decision-making perspective the two are in many ways logically equivalent, yet from psychological and social perspectives they are quite different. An experiment on the communication of climate change uncertainty suggests that the two framings of uncertainty differentially influence people's estimates of likelihood and their motivation to take responsive action. It is recommended that assessment panels pay close attention to the social features of uncertainty, such as conflict between experts.

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