Modeling park development through regional land use change simulation.

Abstract Provision of recreational open space is a major factor in determining resident quality of life in cities. However, urban growth and land use change models typically omit park location and allocation issues when simulating changing urban environments. This paper introduces a method for exploring the spatial allocation of urban parks (public, recreational open spaces) given differing municipal and county investment decisions. Park planning literature has established level of service metrics as rough indicators of provision of public park amenities that are useful guides for future park investment decisions within a given jurisdiction. In this study, we create a dynamic-demand location model that simulates political feedback from population growth and LOS metrics to allocate new parklands (∼0.5 ha ≤ neighborhood parks ≤ ∼4 ha) in multi-jurisdictional urbanizing regions. We frame parks as a new development type that augments residential development currently driving a version of the Regional Urban Growth (RUG) urban simulation model, an open source, raster-based simulation platform. Our approach allows planners and researchers to explore urban patterns and distributive outcomes associated with different local open space requirements and investment choices. We illustrate this approach under scenarios for the rapidly growing, three-county Raleigh–Durham–Chapel Hill region of North Carolina, USA. We test varying delays in park planning, purchase, and construction, varying maximum park sizes, and the effects of increased investment levels in two jurisdictions within our study area. This model suggests that the most important aspect of successful park planning is the length of the lag time between residential and park development. Perhaps the most successful park planning strategy is to plan parks along with residential areas.

[1]  Richard E. Klosterman,et al.  The What If? Collaborative Planning Support System , 1999 .

[2]  N. Bockstael,et al.  Spatial landscape indices in a hedonic framework: an ecological economics analysis using GIS , 1997 .

[3]  Albert J. Rutledge.  Anatomy of a Park: The Essentials of Recreation Area Planning and Design , 1971 .

[4]  B. Deal,et al.  Sustainability and Urban Dynamics: Assessing Future Impacts on Ecosystem Services , 2009 .

[5]  Sarah Nicholls,et al.  Measuring accessibility and equity in a local park system: the utility of geospatial technologies to park and recreation professionals. , 2001 .

[6]  A. Yeh,et al.  An integrated GIS and location-allocation approach to public facilities planning : An example of open space planning , 1996 .

[7]  Timothy Evans,et al.  A Review and Assessment of Land-Use Change Models Dynamics of Space, Time, and Human Choice , 2002 .

[8]  James D. Mertes,et al.  Park, Recreation, Open Space and Greenway Guidelines , 1996 .

[9]  A. Ford.  Modeling the Environment: An Introduction To System Dynamics Modeling Of Environmental Systems , 1999 .

[10]  Markus Neteler,et al.  Open Source GIS: A GRASS GIS Approach , 2007 .

[11]  E. Irwin,et al.  Interacting agents, spatial externalities and the evolution of residential land use patterns , 2002 .

[12]  Roger A. Lancaster.  Recreation, park and open space standards and guidelines. , 1983 .

[13]  Terry L. Sohl,et al.  Regional characterization of land cover using multiple sources of data , 1998 .

[14]  Andrew Ford,et al.  A Simulation Study of Power Plant Construction in California , 2001 .

[15]  Jay Wright Forrester,et al.  Urban Dynamics , 1969 .

[16]  Steward T. A. Pickett,et al.  Ecosystem processes along an urban-to-rural gradient , 2005, Urban Ecosystems.

[17]  Pascal Müller.  Procedural modeling of cities , 2006, SIGGRAPH Courses.

[18]  E. Irwin,et al.  The Problem of Identifying Land Use Spillovers: Measuring the Effects of Open Space on Residential Property Values , 2001 .

[19]  Michael Batty,et al.  Models in planning: technological imperatives and changing roles , 2001 .

[20]  L. D. Hopkins,et al.  Urban Development: The Logic Of Making Plans , 2001 .

[21]  Max Kummerow,et al.  A System Dynamics Model of Cyclical Office Oversupply , 1999 .

[22]  Andrew J. Plantinga,et al.  The influence of public open space on urban spatial structure , 2003 .

[23]  H. Hoyt.  One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago: The Relationship of the Growth of Chicago to the Rise of Its Land Values, 1830-1933 , 2000 .

[24]  S. Pickett,et al.  Ecosystem Structure and Function along Urban‐Rural Gradients: An Unexploited Opportunity for Ecology , 1990 .

[25]  Andrew Ford,et al.  Cycles in competitive electricity markets: a simulation study of the western United States , 1999 .

[26]  Urban Complexity + Emergence: Procedural Modeling of City Activity and Form , 2006 .

[27]  B. Tonn,et al.  Valuing diversity and spatial pattern of open space plots in urban neighborhoods , 2009 .

[28]  Donald M. McAllister.  Equity and Efficiency in Public Facility Location , 2010 .

[29]  J. Sexton,et al.  A Technique for Rapidly Forecasting Regional Urban Growth , 2011 .

[30]  Akira Ohgai,et al.  Multi-objective location modeling of urban parks and open spaces: Continuous optimization , 2010, Comput. Environ. Urban Syst..

[31]  R Sharpe,et al.  Urban land use planning , 1988 .

[32]  R. Ewing,et al.  MEASURING SPRAWL AND ITS IMPACT , 2002 .

[33]  B. Deal,et al.  A Use-Driven Approach to Large-Scale Urban Modelling and Planning Support , 2009 .

[34]  John F. Gardner,et al.  Dynamic Modeling and Control of Engineering Systems , 2007 .

[35]  Galen Cranz,et al.  The politics of park design , 1982 .

[36]  A. Herzele,et al.  A monitoring tool for the provision of accessible and attractive urban green spaces , 2003 .

[37]  J. Brueckner.  Urban Sprawl: Diagnosis and Remedies , 2000 .

[38]  J. Sexton.  Vertical structure, horizontal cover, and temporal change of the North Carolina Piedmont (1985--2005) , 2009 .

[39]  Douglass B. Lee.  Retrospective on Large-Scale Urban Models , 1994 .

[40]  Andrew Ford,et al.  Simulating the spiral of impossibility in the electric utility industry , 1983 .

[41]  Fulton Pn,et al.  Population estimates and projections , 1978 .

[42]  John D. Sterman,et al.  System Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World , 2002 .

[43]  J. Choumert.  An empirical investigation of public choices for green spaces , 2010 .

[44]  B. Deal,et al.  Developing and Using Scenarios , 2007 .

[45]  V. Smith,et al.  Treating open space as an urban amenity , 2002 .