Estimation of a reduction in CO2 emissions by shifting commuters’ travel mode from the private car to public transport

A model for forecasting the amount of CO2 emissions due to urban commuter travel was developed. The model consisted of three submodels: a commuters’ number forecasting model, a fuzzy commute travel mode choice model and a CO2 emissions estimation. The model was tested using the real data of Osaka, Japan. Using this model, we also forecasted and analysed the efect of policy changes to shift commuters’ travel mode from private car to public transport in order to decrease the amount of CO2 emissions.

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