A model to predict outbreak periods of the pest blackfly Simulium chutteri Lewis (simuliidae, Diptera) in the Great Fish River, Eastern Cape province, South Africa

Elevated, more constant flows characterize the current flow regime of the Great Fish River (Eastern Cape province, South Africa) following the completion of an interbasin transfer scheme (IBT) in 1977, where prior to this the winter months were often characterized by zero flows. Changes in aquatic macroinvertebrate communities, and in particular outbreaks of the pest blackfly Simulium chutteri Lewis (Diptera: Simuliidae) have been documented in response to these altered flows. Integrated control measures of pest blackfly have been advocated based on flow reductions during the winter months. In this study, a site‐specific discharge threshold of 2 m3 s−1 was identified as a flow reduction target based on the amount of hydraulic habitat available to S. chutteri larvae within a particular rapid. Hydrological analyses showed that flow conditions have created ideal blackfly larval habitat in this rapid, with prolonged uninterupted periods (>3 months) exceeding this threshold. A model was developed to predict probabilities and severities of blackfly outbreaks, based on flow periods and water temperatures, both of which determine the success and duration respectively of the aquatic phase of S. chutteri. July was identified as the critical month for flow restriction to 2 m3 s−1 for a period of 38 days, in order to reduce the winter populations of S. chutteri in the Great Fish River at the study site and avoid the typical spring outbreaks of blackfly. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.