An Introduction to the Bootstrap

Statistics is the science of learning from experience, especially experience that arrives a little bit at a time. The earliest information science was statistics, originating in about 1650. This century has seen statistical techniques become the analytic methods of choice in biomedical science, psychology, education, economics, communications theory, sociology, genetic studies, epidemiology, and other areas. Recently, traditional sciences like geology, physics, and astronomy have begun to make increasing use of statistical methods as they focus on areas that demand informational efficiency, such as the study of rare and exotic particles or extremely distant galaxies. Most people are not natural-born statisticians. Left to our own devices we are not very good at picking out patterns from a sea of noisy data. To put it another way, we are all too good at picking out non-existent patterns that happen to suit our purposes. Statistical theory attacks the problem from both ends. It provides optimal methods for finding a real signal in a noisy background, and also provides strict checks against the overinterpretation of random patterns.