Assessing Asset Pricing Anomalies

The optimal portfolio strategy is developed for an investor who has detected an asset pricing anomaly but is not certain that the anomaly is genuine rather than merely apparent. The analysis takes account of the fact that the parameters of both the underlying asset pricing model and the anomalous returns are estimated rather than known. The value that an investor would place on the ability to invest to exploit the apparent anomaly is also derived and illustrative calculations are presented for the Fama and French SMB and HML portfolios, whose returns are anomalous relative to the CAPM. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

[1]  E. Fama,et al.  Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns , 1995 .

[2]  Marc R. Reinganum Misspecification of capital asset pricing : Empirical anomalies based on earnings' yields and market values , 1981 .

[3]  Joseph D. Piotroski Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers , 2000 .

[4]  Kalok Chan,et al.  Structural and Return Characteristics of Small and Large Firms , 1991 .

[5]  K. Brown,et al.  Of Tournaments and Temptations: An Analysis of Managerial Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry , 1996 .

[6]  S. P. Kothari,et al.  Another Look at the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns , 1995 .

[7]  Richard Roll,et al.  What Every CFO Should Know about Scientific Progress in Financial Economics: What Is Known and What Remains to Be Resolved , 1994 .

[8]  R. Banz,et al.  The relationship between return and market value of common stocks , 1981 .

[9]  Jonathan Berk,et al.  Sorting Out Sorts , 1997 .

[10]  Peter J. Knez,et al.  On The Robustness of Size and Book‐to‐Market in Cross‐Sectional Regressions , 1997 .

[11]  Tarun Chordia,et al.  Alternative factor specifications, security characteristics, and the cross-section of expected stock returns , 1998 .

[12]  Brad M. Barber,et al.  Firm Size, Book-to-Market Ratio, and Security Returns: A Holdout Sample of Financial Firms , 1997 .

[13]  E. Elton,et al.  Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds , 1999 .

[14]  Charles E. Wasley,et al.  Can We Implement Research on Stock Trading Rules? , 1995 .

[15]  V. Benes,et al.  Estimation and control for linear, partially observable systems with non-gaussian initial distribution☆☆☆ , 1983 .

[16]  Ľuboš Pástor Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing Models , 1999 .

[17]  Gur Huberman,et al.  Mean-Variance Spanning , 1987 .

[18]  E. Fama Market Efficiency, Long-Term Returns, and Behavioral Finance , 1997 .

[19]  Allaudeen Hameed,et al.  Profitability of Momentum Stragegies in the International Equity Markets , 2000, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[20]  S. Ross The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing , 1976 .

[21]  Robert A. Korajczyk,et al.  On Selection Biases in Book-to-Market Based Tests of Asset Pricing Models , 1996 .

[22]  Dave Feldman Logarithmic Preferences, Myopic Decisions, and Incomplete Information , 1992, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[23]  R. Ball,et al.  An empirical evaluation of accounting income numbers , 1968 .

[24]  A. Robert,et al.  HAUGEN, . The New Finance: The Case against Efficient Markets (Englewood Prentice Hall. , 1995 .

[25]  V. Benes,et al.  Estimation and control for linear, partially observable systems with non-gaussian initial distribution☆☆☆ , 1983 .

[26]  Tim Loughran Book-to-Market across Firm Size, Exchange, and Seasonality: Is There an Effect? , 1997, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[27]  Ronald J. Lanstein,et al.  Persuasive evidence of market inefficiency , 1985 .

[28]  R. Haugen,et al.  The New Finance: The Case Against Efficient Markets , 1995 .

[29]  Narasimhan Jegadeesh,et al.  Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency , 1993 .

[30]  G. Hofstede Culture′s Consequences: Comparing Values, Behaviors, Institutions and Organizations Across Nations , 2001 .

[31]  A. Mackinlay,et al.  Multifactor Models Do Not Explain Deviations from the CAPM , 1994 .

[32]  Josef Lakonishok,et al.  Good News for Value Stocks: Further Evidence on Market Efficiency , 1995 .

[33]  E. Fama,et al.  Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds , 1993 .

[34]  Josef Lakonishok,et al.  Evaluating the performance of value versus glamour stocks The impact of selection bias , 1995 .

[35]  Eduardo S. Schwartz,et al.  The Role of Learning in Dynamic Portfolio Decisions ? , 1998 .

[36]  E. Fama,et al.  The Cross‐Section of Expected Stock Returns , 1992 .

[37]  Tarun Chordia,et al.  Momentum, Business Cycle and Time Varying Expected Returns , 2001 .

[38]  E. Fama,et al.  Value Versus Growth: The International Evidence , 1997 .

[39]  A. Lo,et al.  Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models , 1989 .

[40]  Yihong Xia Learning About Predictability: The Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Dynamic Asset Allocation , 2000 .

[41]  Stephen E. Wilcox Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions , 1999 .

[42]  C. B. Barry,et al.  Robustness of Size and Value Effects in Emerging Equity Markets, 1985-2000 , 2001 .

[43]  Edward I. Altman,et al.  FINANCIAL RATIOS, DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND THE PREDICTION OF CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY , 1968 .

[44]  J. Martin,et al.  Momentum Investing and Business Cycle Risk: Evidence from Pole to Pole , 2002 .

[45]  Fischer Black,et al.  Beta and Return , 1993 .

[46]  V. Bernard,et al.  Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings , 1990 .

[47]  M. C. Jensen Some Anomalous Evidence Regarding Market Efficiency , 1978 .

[48]  James A. Ohlson FINANCIAL RATIOS AND THE PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION OF BANKRUPTCY , 1980 .

[49]  Tyler Shumway The Delisting Bias in CRSP Data , 1997 .

[50]  Josef Lakonishok,et al.  Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk , 1993 .

[51]  E. Dimson,et al.  Murphy's Law and Market Anomalies , 1998 .

[52]  E. Fama,et al.  Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies , 1996 .

[53]  Gerard Gennotte Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Incomplete Information , 1986 .

[54]  J. Vu Value versus Growth: The International Evidence , 1999 .

[55]  K. Rouwenhorst Local Return Factors and Turnover in Emerging Stock Markets , 1998 .

[56]  M. Nimalendran,et al.  Price reversals : Bid-ask errors or market overreaction? , 1990 .

[57]  Joseph T. Williams Capital asset prices with heterogeneous beliefs , 1977 .

[58]  A. Lo,et al.  When are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction? , 1989 .

[59]  Kent D. Daniel,et al.  Presentation Slides for 'Investor Psychology and Security Market Under and Overreactions' , 1998 .

[60]  J. Detemple Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Incomplete Information , 1986 .

[61]  J. Berk A Critique of Size-Related Anomalies , 1995 .

[62]  Campbell R. Harvey,et al.  Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets , 1997 .

[63]  J. Detemple Further results on asset pricing with incomplete information , 1991 .