Risk-constrained Multistage Transmission System Expansion Planning

Optimal multistage transmission system expansion planning is a large-scale nonlinear combinatorial optimization problem. Compared with the transmission system planning in the traditional monopoly industry, the transmission system planning in the electricity market environment is more complicated. Deregulation introduces more uncertain factors for the transmission planning processes, and hence security and economic risks will be inevitably incurred in the planning scheme produced under such an uncertain environment. Given this background, a new risk-constrained model for the multistage transmission system expansion planning is first presented based on the chance constrained programming, and a method is next presented for solving the optimization problem using the well-known Monte Carlo simulation method and the genetic algorithm. Finally, a 19-bus sample system is used for demonstrating the essential features of the developed model and method.