Rethinking Agricultural Trade Relationships in an Era of Globalization

Agricultural trade plays an important role in global food security and resource sustainability. Global food commodities trade is worth more than US$520 billion per year, could feed approximately two billion people, uses about 13% of worldwide cropland and pasture, and has geographically concentrated irrigation water demands. However, researchers rarely compare these monetary, nutritional, and resource metrics, which limits our ability to holistically evaluate the drivers and implications of trade. We found that each metric suggests distinct conclusions about the geography of globalized agriculture. For example, traded animal products have a disproportionate influence according to value-based and embodied pasture metrics. Traded wheat, soybean, and maize contain the most calories, use the most cropland, and strongly influence irrigation water consumption. We typify engagement in trade by assessing how countries allocate cropland to domestic versus foreign demand. Simultaneous consideration of multiple metrics could enhance decisionmaking surrounding trade by capturing the complex biophysical and economic context of agricultural globalization.

[1]  Anne D. Bjorkman,et al.  Increasing homogeneity in global food supplies and the implications for food security , 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[2]  A. Hoekstra,et al.  The water footprint of humanity , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[3]  M. Kummu,et al.  From Food Insufficiency towards Trade Dependency: A Historical Analysis of Global Food Availability , 2013, PloS one.

[4]  R. DeFries,et al.  Export-oriented deforestation in Mato Grosso: harbinger or exception for other tropical forests? , 2013, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[5]  J. Foley,et al.  Redefining agricultural yields: from tonnes to people nourished per hectare , 2013 .

[6]  Stefan Siebert,et al.  Improvements in crop water productivity increase water sustainability and food security—a global analysis , 2013 .

[7]  Arjen Ysbert Hoekstra,et al.  The Water Footprint of Modern Consumer Society , 2011 .

[8]  D. Headey Rethinking the global food crisis , 2010 .

[9]  J. Galloway,et al.  Food and feed trade as a driver in the global nitrogen cycle: 50-year trends , 2014, Biogeochemistry.

[10]  Petra Döll,et al.  Quantifying blue and green virtual water contents in global crop production as well as potential production losses without irrigation , 2010 .

[11]  Eric F. Lambin,et al.  Globalization of land use: distant drivers of land change and geographic displacement of land use , 2013 .

[12]  Klaus Hubacek,et al.  Tele-connecting local consumption to global land use , 2013 .

[13]  E. Hertwich,et al.  Affluence drives the global displacement of land use , 2013 .

[14]  Wolfgang Lucht,et al.  Embodied HANPP: Mapping the spatial disconnect between global biomass production and consumption , 2009 .

[15]  Sanderine Nonhebel,et al.  Tracing distant environmental impacts of agricultural products from a consumer perspective , 2011 .

[16]  M. Kummu,et al.  Lost food, wasted resources: global food supply chain losses and their impacts on freshwater, cropland, and fertiliser use. , 2012, The Science of the total environment.

[17]  Gregory P. Asner,et al.  Carbon emissions from forest conversion by Kalimantan oil palm plantations , 2013 .

[18]  Luca Ridolfi,et al.  Feeding humanity through global food trade , 2014 .

[19]  J. Carr,et al.  Globalization of agricultural pollution due to international trade , 2013 .

[20]  Vaclav Smil,et al.  International Trade in Meat: The Tip of the Pork Chop , 2007, Ambio.

[21]  R. Brouwer,et al.  Economic valuation of water resources in agriculture. From the sectoral to a functional perspective of natural resource management , 2004 .

[22]  J. Kropp,et al.  Embodied crop calories in animal products , 2013 .

[23]  G. Xie,et al.  Agricultural trade and virtual land use: The case of China's crop trade , 2013 .

[24]  Glen P. Peters,et al.  Climate policy and dependence on traded carbon , 2013 .

[25]  Helmut Haberl,et al.  Cropland area embodied in international trade: Contradictory results from different approaches , 2014 .

[26]  N. Ramankutty,et al.  Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management , 2012, Nature.

[27]  E. Lambin,et al.  INAUGURAL ARTICLE by a Recently Elected Academy Member:Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity , 2011 .

[28]  H. Haberl,et al.  Rapid growth in agricultural trade: effects on global area efficiency and the role of management , 2014 .

[29]  Derek Headey,et al.  Rethinking the global food crisis: The role of trade shocks , 2011 .

[30]  Kym Anderson,et al.  Globalization's effects on world agricultural trade, 1960–2050 , 2010, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[31]  E. Lambin,et al.  Niche Commodities and Rural Poverty Alleviation: Contextualizing the Contribution of Argan Oil to Rural Livelihoods in Morocco , 2013 .

[32]  Maria Cristina Rulli,et al.  Global land and water grabbing , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[33]  Wolfgang Lucht,et al.  Internal and external green-blue agricultural water footprints of nations, and related water and land savings through trade , 2011 .

[34]  A. Maneschi Comparative Advantage in International Trade: A Historical Perspective , 1999 .

[35]  G. Peters,et al.  Attribution of CO2 emissions from Brazilian deforestation to consumers between 1990 and 2010 , 2013 .

[36]  Helmut Haberl,et al.  Natural and socioeconomic determinants of the embodied human appropriation of net primary production and its relation to other resource use indicators , 2012, Ecological indicators.

[37]  S. Suh,et al.  The material footprint of nations , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[38]  R. Naylor,et al.  Food security in an era of economic volatility. , 2010, Population and development review.

[39]  H. Schellnhuber,et al.  Will the world run out of land? A Kaya-type decomposition to study past trends of cropland expansion , 2014 .

[40]  Mark J. Gehlhar,et al.  Reconciling Bilateral Trade Data for Use in GTAP , 2000, GTAP Technical Paper Series.

[41]  Dennis Wichelns,et al.  The policy relevance of virtual water can be enhanced by considering comparative advantages , 2004 .

[42]  Naota Hanasaki,et al.  Evolution of the global virtual water trade network , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[43]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  Mapping the structure of the world economy. , 2012, Environmental science & technology.

[44]  Erle C. Ellis,et al.  A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies , 2011, Environmental Research Letters.

[45]  A. Dinar,et al.  Pricing Irrigation Water: Principles and Cases from Developing Countries , 2010 .

[46]  David P. Edwards,et al.  A global strategy for road building , 2014, Nature.

[47]  M. Schipanski,et al.  The Influence of Agricultural Trade and Livestock Production on the Global Phosphorus Cycle , 2011, Ecosystems.

[48]  N. Mueller,et al.  Leverage points for improving global food security and the environment , 2014, Science.

[49]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  International trade drives biodiversity threats in developing nations , 2012, Nature.

[50]  M. Obersteiner,et al.  Biomass use, production, feed efficiencies, and greenhouse gas emissions from global livestock systems , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[51]  W. Lucht,et al.  Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption: quantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraints , 2013 .

[52]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Solutions for a cultivated planet , 2011, Nature.

[53]  Navin Ramankutty,et al.  Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO2 emissions , 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[54]  S. Davis,et al.  Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[55]  Eric F. Lambin,et al.  Forest transitions, trade, and the global displacement of land use , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.