Using the GANDOLF system as a tool to aid the forecasting of lightning strikes

In partnership with the Environment Agency, the Met Office has developed a short-period thunderstorm forecasting system based on a conceptual life-cycle model of convective cells. Although originally intended to provide forecasts of intense precipitation, the model provides a mechanism for predicting other forms of severe weather phenomena associated with thunderstorms. This paper investigates the possibility of using GANDOLF to generate a forecast of lightning risk. Model life-cycle stages are compared against observed lightning locations in order to derive a basis for forecasting risk, and this was then tested on data for three different events. The results from this initial investigation seem promising and suggest this type of approach can be effective. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society

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